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Post by galaxytrash on May 10, 2023 17:52:21 GMT -6
I know this is basically meaningless but found an early 2024 mock draft. I am ok getting no more than 2 out of 5 years winning the lottery rule out of the way. www.lines.com/nhl/drafts/2024/round1Next year I think Hawks will get a top 5 pick, but another 5’11” player may not be needed. Celebrini looks pretty awesome. But the Hawks already have size issues again. Need some size soon!!! only 3 of the 32 lads are over 190 lbs., and of those 3 only one cracks 200 lbs. of course they still have another year to fatten up.... |
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Post by BigT on May 10, 2023 18:11:09 GMT -6
Next year I think Hawks will get a top 5 pick, but another 5’11” player may not be needed. Celebrini looks pretty awesome. But the Hawks already have size issues again. Need some size soon!!! only 3 of the 32 lads are over 190 lbs., and of those 3 only one cracks 200 lbs. of course they still have another year to fatten up.... I’m generous. I got a few lbs I could afford to let go!!! |
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Post by galaxytrash on May 11, 2023 4:10:26 GMT -6
Video of the actual draft lottery with Bettman, the Hawks 4 number winning combination was 4,5,9,13 at the 13:00 mark of the video is when it was determined the Hawks won. Warning: It is bit long, but interesting nonetheless. 3 national sportswriters are in the room along with an accounting firm and a few others. www.youtube.com/watch?v=mHySdt4YLAIi was listening to a recent friedman podcast today and he said he was amazed how many "smart hockey people" believe the lottery was rigged because of the kevin weekes slip up. (marek and friedman go on to try and debunk the "rigged lotto" theory.) it starts about 47:30 in and just takes a few minutes. it's worth listening to the end (about 15 minutes total) because they follow the lottery talk speculating about KD's future moves among other blackhawk's related things. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/11-59-for-toronto/id1332150124?i=1000612509656 |
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Post by mvr on May 11, 2023 4:34:49 GMT -6
With Bedard the pick, I believe the timeline has to be accelerated to maximize this huge lottery win. The league has changed in recent years. Star young players are commanding big salaries immediately beyond their rookie contracts. In three years, Bedard will be in position to command a franchise-type contract. Many of the others, including Reichel, will be eligible for generous bridge deals. The team will never again have more salary cap flexibility. I say Davidson starts loading up on young premier quality talent right now. Add players on rookie contracts or already signed for the next three years. Avoid the UFA market and especially players requiring long term deals. Build a deep four line team ready to compete by 2025-26 while the young players remain cheap. The Kraken are winning right now without stars because they have more depth than their opponents. Top-heavy rosters filled with superstars (see the Maple Leafs/Oilers) and with little cap flexibility are finding it more difficult than ever getting through the postseason. I hope you don’t think I’m calling you out or nothing like that. I love our back and forth. My question is this. Do you value superstar players? It always seems that you’d rather have a team like Seattle that will always fall short of the goal. Or Nashville, Carolina etc. a team void of top end players but more depth. I get the depth argument. I feel you can get beat of both worlds if drafting correctly and often!!! You are not calling me out at all. More often than not, Big T, i feel that "superstar" players who command huge salaries can be problematic in a cap-strapped environment. Teams win cups when they have deep rosters. At best, a forward will be on the ice for 1/3 of the game. When these players absorb 1/8 or more of a team's entire payroll, they crowd out the others, which means there can't be any quality depth. I look at how Florida is handling Toronto right now, and I am not at all surprised at how easily Barkov and the Panthers are containing Mathews et al. I would much rather spend slightly less at the top and more on the middle and bottom of a roster (especially on defence and two way centres). Barkov to me is much better value than Mathews (the superstar). When the Hawks were winners, Toews and Kane made $6.3 M/year. Toews had much better value at the time than Crosby (at least to my mind). Keith's value was even higher (measured against his contract). Boston has remained competitive for a decade plus (and won a cup) with Bergeron and Marchand (both great players but not superstars - with salaries which did not crowd out their teammates). In the 1960s and 1970s, teams could contain what they paid their star players much longer into their careers. Bobby Hull did not make big money until he left town. Lafleur never made close to what he could have as a UFA. Later on, owners such as Mike Illitch could load up on talent because there was no salary cap. In the early days of the salary cap, the star players did not make peak salary until their third UFA contracts. This is no longer happening. It is possible that Bedard (like Mathews and McDavid) might price himself out of a contending roster before his general manager has the means to assemble enough talent around him. |
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Post by mvr on May 11, 2023 5:02:38 GMT -6
Teams pay big dollars for the offence-first scorers because they sell tickets.
But to win, a team also needs to prevent the opponent from scoring. Players who excel in this role don't tend to generate sales, but they provide equal value (and are much cheaper to sign).
It is true, as Big T suggests, that I have a problem spending big money on scorers. I tend to think they are way overpaid for the actual value they produce. Debrincat to my mind is a classic example.
I prefer spending that kind of money on two-way centres such as (peak) Toews, Bergeron and Barkov or on defence.
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Post by mvr on May 11, 2023 5:37:39 GMT -6
Wayne Gretzky is widely considered the best player of all time.
I am not convinced he was the MVP (measured against salary) of his own team.
Mark Messier (and Kevin Lowe) won two cups without him. After leaving Edmonton, Gretzky reached the finals one more time with LA.
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Post by mikeveisor on May 11, 2023 6:17:28 GMT -6
Wayne Gretzky is widely considered the best player of all time. I am not convinced he was the MVP (measured against salary) of his own team. Mark Messier (and Kevin Lowe) won two cups without him. After leaving Edmonton, Gretzky reached the finals one more time with LA. I had this exact discussion with my daughter last night, trying to explain that Draisatl is every bit as important to the team, if not more than, as McD. |
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Post by BigT on May 11, 2023 7:01:34 GMT -6
Teams pay big dollars for the offence-first scorers because they sell tickets. But to win, a team also needs to prevent the opponent from scoring. Players who excel in this role don't tend to generate sales, but they provide equal value (and are much cheaper to sign). It is true, as Big T suggests, that I have a problem spending big money on scorers. I tend to think they are way overpaid for the actual value they produce. Debrincat to my mind is a classic example. I prefer spending that kind of money on two-way centres such as (peak) Toews, Bergeron and Barkov or on defence. I agree the guys you mention are also valuable. Kane was valuable too. The object of the game is to score at least one more goal than the opponent. Without scoring, you don’t win. Without defense, it’s tough to win. But still possible. I feel defensive minded checkers should come much cheaper than Toews or Bergeron. Don’t get me wrong. I wouldn’t pass on either, but it’s tough to pay a guy high dollars when they don’t score much. I really feel you can get guys much cheaper to be defensive specialists. Even Ovechkin didn’t touch the ice in the last 5 mins of the Cup clinching game. Depth is possible. But unfortunately winning drives up all salaries. Tampa lost Palat, Goodrow, Gourde, T Johnson, Coleman etc. All made too much. Even Killorn is way overpaid. My solution is to trade them to get assets back. Not to trade them out of desperation. If the plan is to win over a 3-5 year span. That’s the way to go. If it’s a decade plus. Then you have to cut bait and take a year or two to retool. Go for another few years and retool again. It’s the only way to get around the cap. Keep the core 4 and work the edges. Picture if Tampa traded Kucherov for a Haul two years back after his huge season? Unpopular yes. But they’d be winning Cups again. Trade Killorn for some relief and prospects. Just don’t do it out of desperation!!! |
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Post by mvr on May 11, 2023 7:02:55 GMT -6
Wayne Gretzky is widely considered the best player of all time. I am not convinced he was the MVP (measured against salary) of his own team. Mark Messier (and Kevin Lowe) won two cups without him. After leaving Edmonton, Gretzky reached the finals one more time with LA. I had this exact discussion with my daughter last night, trying to explain that Draisatl is every bit as important to the team, if not more than, as McD. I think that's a strong argument: Draisati makes $4 M less than McDavid and plays a more vigorous physical game. Ekholm makes $2M less than Draisati. At $6 M, he sure filled a number of holes in that roster. |
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Post by mvr on May 11, 2023 7:07:17 GMT -6
Teams pay big dollars for the offence-first scorers because they sell tickets. But to win, a team also needs to prevent the opponent from scoring. Players who excel in this role don't tend to generate sales, but they provide equal value (and are much cheaper to sign). It is true, as Big T suggests, that I have a problem spending big money on scorers. I tend to think they are way overpaid for the actual value they produce. Debrincat to my mind is a classic example. I prefer spending that kind of money on two-way centres such as (peak) Toews, Bergeron and Barkov or on defence. I agree the guys you mention are also valuable. Kane was valuable too. The object of the game is to score at least one more goal than the opponent. Without scoring, you don’t win. Without defense, it’s tough to win. But still possible. I feel defensive minded checkers should come much cheaper than Toews or Bergeron. Don’t get me wrong. I wouldn’t pass on either, but it’s tough to pay a guy high dollars when they don’t score much. I really feel you can get guys much cheaper to be defensive specialists. Even Ovechkin didn’t touch the ice in the last 5 mins of the Cup clinching game. Depth is possible. But unfortunately winning drives up all salaries. Tampa lost Palat, Goodrow, Gourde, T Johnson, Coleman etc. All made too much. Even Killorn is way overpaid. My solution is to trade them to get assets back. Not to trade them out of desperation. If the plan is to win over a 3-5 year span. That’s the way to go. If it’s a decade plus. Then you have to cut bait and take a year or two to retool. Go for another few years and retool again. It’s the only way to get around the cap. Keep the core 4 and work the edges. Picture if Tampa traded Kucherov for a Haul two years back after his huge season? Unpopular yes. But they’d be winning Cups again. Trade Killorn for some relief and prospects. Just don’t do it out of desperation!!! When the Hawks core had to be torn down in 2010, Bowman kept all the "core" guys. I liked Sharp and Campbell a great deal. But to my mind, they were the two who had to go. The roster in 2011-12 became far too top-heavy. The problem is that it is very difficult to get rid of players carrying generous contracts. |
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Post by BigT on May 11, 2023 7:39:14 GMT -6
I agree the guys you mention are also valuable. Kane was valuable too. The object of the game is to score at least one more goal than the opponent. Without scoring, you don’t win. Without defense, it’s tough to win. But still possible. I feel defensive minded checkers should come much cheaper than Toews or Bergeron. Don’t get me wrong. I wouldn’t pass on either, but it’s tough to pay a guy high dollars when they don’t score much. I really feel you can get guys much cheaper to be defensive specialists. Even Ovechkin didn’t touch the ice in the last 5 mins of the Cup clinching game. Depth is possible. But unfortunately winning drives up all salaries. Tampa lost Palat, Goodrow, Gourde, T Johnson, Coleman etc. All made too much. Even Killorn is way overpaid. My solution is to trade them to get assets back. Not to trade them out of desperation. If the plan is to win over a 3-5 year span. That’s the way to go. If it’s a decade plus. Then you have to cut bait and take a year or two to retool. Go for another few years and retool again. It’s the only way to get around the cap. Keep the core 4 and work the edges. Picture if Tampa traded Kucherov for a Haul two years back after his huge season? Unpopular yes. But they’d be winning Cups again. Trade Killorn for some relief and prospects. Just don’t do it out of desperation!!! When the Hawks core had to be torn down in 2010, Bowman kept all the "core" guys. I liked Sharp and Campbell a great deal. But to my mind, they were the two who had to go. The roster in 2011-12 became far too top-heavy. The problem is that it is very difficult to get rid of players carrying generous contracts. I’m not the biggest fan of dumpster diving. But Martinook was on waivers last year. No one wanted him. Now he has 8 points in the Devils series alone. Sometimes all a guy needs is a chance. My point is this. If the Hurricanes overpay him, it’s stupid. He’s a good player. But you can find more like him. If he wants money. I understand. Good luck to him. I’ll look elsewhere. Nashville would always overpay for 2nd or 3rd liners. To get to the cap ceiling and have no superstar to get you over the hump is a horrible way to go. The idea is to build from within. If a GM can stretch his core to 6 or 8 and not break the bank. Good for him. But that’s not always the case. NJ has done good in that dept. So it is possible. Almost everyone laughed at NJ when they signed Hughes to that 8 year 8 million per deal. At the time he had 17 career goals. It was a risk worth taking. And this is why GMs have no problem burning the 1st year of an ELC. Next year the Hawks can re-sign Reichel. Maybe they get him for 6 years at 5 million per? If he plays with Bedard in the future, it could be a steal. Keep the pipelines flowing and trade him around year 4 when he’s a bargain and the Hawks can get back a massive haul. Younger and better. That’s how to do things!!! |
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Post by LordKOTL on May 11, 2023 7:54:02 GMT -6
I hope you don’t think I’m calling you out or nothing like that. I love our back and forth. My question is this. Do you value superstar players? It always seems that you’d rather have a team like Seattle that will always fall short of the goal. Or Nashville, Carolina etc. a team void of top end players but more depth. I get the depth argument. I feel you can get beat of both worlds if drafting correctly and often!!! You are not calling me out at all. More often than not, Big T, i feel that "superstar" players who command huge salaries can be problematic in a cap-strapped environment. Teams win cups when they have deep rosters. At best, a forward will be on the ice for 1/3 of the game. When these players absorb 1/8 or more of a team's entire payroll, they crowd out the others, which means there can't be any quality depth. I look at how Florida is handling Toronto right now, and I am not at all surprised at how easily Barkov and the Panthers are containing Mathews et al. I would much rather spend slightly less at the top and more on the middle and bottom of a roster (especially on defence and two way centres). Barkov to me is much better value than Mathews (the superstar). When the Hawks were winners, Toews and Kane made $6.3 M/year. Toews had much better value at the time than Crosby (at least to my mind). Keith's value was even higher (measured against his contract). Boston has remained competitive for a decade plus (and won a cup) with Bergeron and Marchand (both great players but not superstars - with salaries which did not crowd out their teammates). In the 1960s and 1970s, teams could contain what they paid their star players much longer into their careers. Bobby Hull did not make big money until he left town. Lafleur never made close to what he could have as a UFA. Later on, owners such as Mike Illitch could load up on talent because there was no salary cap. In the early days of the salary cap, the star players did not make peak salary until their third UFA contracts. This is no longer happening. It is possible that Bedard (like Mathews and McDavid) might price himself out of a contending roster before his general manager has the means to assemble enough talent around him. I'm not disagreeing, but the market will bear what the market will bear. If Edmonton didn't pay McDavid 100M/8yr (12.5M AAV), someone else would have, and then Edmonton would have been right back into the cellar. That is one of the roadblocks which KD will be running into in the future...assuming of course he doesn't screw this up so badly that he's shown the door before Bedard signs his 1st non-entry level deal. The biggest issue when it comes to cap in my estimation is having that critical mass of players playing abode their cap hit and giving the team value. You have to reduce the amount of contracts in which the player is playing below it. Assuming we get Bedard (and if we don't someone needs to check KD for lobotomy scars), and assuming he is everything the scouts think he will be, we're going to have to pay him. I'm fine with that--especially since he'll be a young talent on the upswing. It's the older talents on the downswing which we can't afford to pay bank (i.e. Seabrook). It also means the supporting cast needs to be paid at market value or less if we can swing it, and we gotta hope some of those guys are going to try to play for a better payday. What we can't do is pay for past performance like Stan did, and we can't pay above market rates for depth. We need depth; that's a given. We just can't be paying too much for it; it has to be in-line with market value, or lower if we can swing it. We want contracts like Hjammer's, not like Panik's. |
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Post by LordKOTL on May 11, 2023 8:14:14 GMT -6
1st off, I'm not putting you though your paces for questioning. I'm genuinely curious. We all see the game differently. I like the concept of your moves. On the forward side we don't have much, but FWDs tend to develop quicker. It would make a lot of sense to flip some extraneous picks into FWD prospects who are closer. Even though I subscribe to "the D isn't set until it is", but with the 'hawks prospect pool as I see it now, those depth picks aren't going to bring in the D-players we need, which is top-end talent. I gotta admit the Florida move is very intriguing. I also think that we do have a mountain of potential mid-pair D-men; not all of them will be our future 3/4. We can start using them as tradebait, too. I think we have to be savvy in choosing who stays and who goes--and that's the real trick. What we can't do is send away any top-end talent we got, and the only way to evaluate that is on the ice. I don't necessarily think that Stan's guys are poison, but the issue with Stan's guys is that most of them are mid-tier guys, rather than top-tier guys (and we need top-tiers, especially on D). By all means we should keep the good ones (Reichel, Allan if he pans out, I like what Phillips has brought, same with Vlassic), but getting the 1-2 guys (or 1-3, if someone supplements Seth Jones like Hjammer supplemented Brian Campbell) is really what's needed. On the positive note LR got a lot of synergy from the players and I think that last year's team actually played better than they should have on paper. My concern with how things could pan out (and now KD seems to be mitigating that), is being stuck in 16-20th place limbo. Having a bunch of mid-tier guys with 1-2 great guys usually means stuck just out of the playoffs or perennial one-and-dones without any real chance at acquiring enough top-end talent; either you get up against the cap because FA's and the trade market is so expensive for that level of talent, or you have to bank on getting very, very lucky in picking deep into the draft, which is never something to bank on. I think KD did as good of a job as could be reasonably expected even though he did trade some of my favorites away, and I think he could have gotten more in some trades but I also think that he did do excellent in others, plus having his hands ties in some cases. But realistically, which GM hasn't had a few issues? Mike Smith managing to turn Karpo into Hjammer is partially countered by the fact that Mike Smith traded for Karpo in the 1st place. I think that KD does need to leverage the assets we have and try to accelerate things if possible and as-needed, especially since we just got a generational talent to fall into our lap--and one who has played with 3 of our current prospects! He is on the clock now and has to do this right. 1st off,YOU READ ALL THAT?LOL! Personally,I see a benefit in a handful of decent/good,early-mid 20yro's who've figured out how to win a bit in place when youngsters start to arrive vs a team full of bad contract veterans who've been bottom-feeding/tanking the last several years. Gotta walk before you can run,there are teams in those 16-20th spots in limbo like the Caps and Pens but there are others in those spots like the Sabres and Sens honing their craft as well. NJ was three last year. Aspiring for greatness with mostly kids going from worst to first in short-order did happen here back in '10' but it's rare and it took a few real good trades and a WHALE of an UFA signing to complete! TB was a good team for some time before they won back-back cups and the Avs and Caps were also good for years before they won theirs. We don't want to be the team that lost in the 2nd round or the team that only won one cup I hear.........it's 'Juggernaut' or bust? Is there even one 'juggernaut' in the league at the moment? How many of those mid-pack or early exit or single cup winning teams were well-run with well balanced rosters? A young group of players aspiring for greatness that includes Connor Bedard is indeed a massive advantage and the sheer number of high picks last year,this year and next should be expected to yield a top D-man or two IMO. The rest of the roster will still have to be completed properly though,or we join the group described above. Will basking in the glory and good fortune of landing Bedard be enough cover to tank another year or two? Does Bedard have decent linemates? If so,does he score enough to harm a tank? If not,does he enjoy not scoring a lot and losing a lot? I think at this point you simply have to build around Bedard. I don't think it needs to be an outright tankjob like last season. We do have to start getting kids in there, be it homegrown or young guys we acquire, so I hope the time of signing in decrepit vets is over. I think at this point each acquisition has to be done with the express purpose of pushing the rebuild forward. If that means getting someone in there short term who can teach the kids how to won? fine. if that means trading out a longtime prospect for someone a bit closer, so be it. But, I don't think the onus should be "win now". KD sounds like he's trying to plan for the long term, not a short-term one-and-done--which is a good thing. For the rest? We can't overlook luck. Would the 'hawks have had a 49 year drought if a bounce went the other way? I think it was '71 we were very close. I'm not so naïve that I think that KD could actually do everything right and we still come up short like 1992. |
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Post by mvr on May 11, 2023 8:21:55 GMT -6
Hockey is different than other team sports.
In basketball, the same five players play the majority of a game. In football, the quarterback handles each offensive play. His decision making impacts everyone else's. In these sports, it makes sense to load up on the superstars playing the glory positions. Everyone else is a support player.
In hockey, the best scoring forwards might handle the puck a few minutes the entire game. They hog all the powerplay time, and the coaches' concentrate their icetime to maximize their scoring output.
In baseball, a manager can't send out his best bat every time a runner is on base. But this is par for the course in hockey. What it means is that the gap between scorers and secondary players might not be as exaggerated as the stats make them out to be.
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Post by T-man2010 on May 11, 2023 8:59:48 GMT -6
1st off,YOU READ ALL THAT?LOL! Personally,I see a benefit in a handful of decent/good,early-mid 20yro's who've figured out how to win a bit in place when youngsters start to arrive vs a team full of bad contract veterans who've been bottom-feeding/tanking the last several years. Gotta walk before you can run,there are teams in those 16-20th spots in limbo like the Caps and Pens but there are others in those spots like the Sabres and Sens honing their craft as well. NJ was three last year. Aspiring for greatness with mostly kids going from worst to first in short-order did happen here back in '10' but it's rare and it took a few real good trades and a WHALE of an UFA signing to complete! TB was a good team for some time before they won back-back cups and the Avs and Caps were also good for years before they won theirs. We don't want to be the team that lost in the 2nd round or the team that only won one cup I hear.........it's 'Juggernaut' or bust? Is there even one 'juggernaut' in the league at the moment? How many of those mid-pack or early exit or single cup winning teams were well-run with well balanced rosters? A young group of players aspiring for greatness that includes Connor Bedard is indeed a massive advantage and the sheer number of high picks last year,this year and next should be expected to yield a top D-man or two IMO. The rest of the roster will still have to be completed properly though,or we join the group described above. Will basking in the glory and good fortune of landing Bedard be enough cover to tank another year or two? Does Bedard have decent linemates? If so,does he score enough to harm a tank? If not,does he enjoy not scoring a lot and losing a lot? I think at this point you simply have to build around Bedard. I don't think it needs to be an outright tankjob like last season. We do have to start getting kids in there, be it homegrown or young guys we acquire, so I hope the time of signing in decrepit vets is over. I think at this point each acquisition has to be done with the express purpose of pushing the rebuild forward. If that means getting someone in there short term who can teach the kids how to won? fine. if that means trading out a longtime prospect for someone a bit closer, so be it. But, I don't think the onus should be "win now". KD sounds like he's trying to plan for the long term, not a short-term one-and-done--which is a good thing. For the rest? We can't overlook luck. Would the 'hawks have had a 49 year drought if a bounce went the other way? I think it was '71 we were very close. I'm not so naïve that I think that KD could actually do everything right and we still come up short like 1992. Different than previous rebuild where the team was built first, then the cherry on top, Toews and Kane. Now we got the cherry, but do we have the pieces here and in the system already along with some near future drafts. |
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Post by T-man2010 on May 11, 2023 9:13:14 GMT -6
Going to keep an eye on next years draft if there is a Makar, Fox, Hedman type of #1 D-man out there.
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Post by BigT on May 11, 2023 9:32:56 GMT -6
Going to keep an eye on next years draft if there is a Makar, Fox, Hedman type of #1 D-man out there. That’s the smart way. However. Jones may be the guy for a few years. Even for 5 years. He’s got no miles on him. And never really got a shot at being on a solid team yet. So I think there’s plenty of time to develop a kid. Jones is a good stop gap. I’m still on the side that the Hawks need a couple more high end D prospects. I think what is there is ok. Just they all seem to be lumped into the same category. Maybe one is a future #1. But the rest are mostly role players and depth guys. Which is still good. But there needs to be some urgency in finding top D guys!!! |
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Post by hawkfaninpdx on May 11, 2023 10:17:42 GMT -6
I think at this point you simply have to build around Bedard. I don't think it needs to be an outright tankjob like last season. We do have to start getting kids in there, be it homegrown or young guys we acquire, so I hope the time of signing in decrepit vets is over. I think at this point each acquisition has to be done with the express purpose of pushing the rebuild forward. If that means getting someone in there short term who can teach the kids how to won? fine. if that means trading out a longtime prospect for someone a bit closer, so be it. But, I don't think the onus should be "win now". KD sounds like he's trying to plan for the long term, not a short-term one-and-done--which is a good thing. For the rest? We can't overlook luck. Would the 'hawks have had a 49 year drought if a bounce went the other way? I think it was '71 we were very close. I'm not so naïve that I think that KD could actually do everything right and we still come up short like 1992. Now we got the cherry, but do we have the pieces here and in the system already along with some near future drafts. This is exactly what concerns me. The previous Hawk team had developed largely organically, from the players in the minors and some very fortunate trades, e.g. Sharp and Versteeg. Now, KD is trying to start from nothing and design a team just based on his own vision. We'll see, but I am skeptical. |
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Post by steamer on May 11, 2023 10:22:59 GMT -6
Different than previous rebuild where the team was built first, then the cherry on top, Toews and Kane.Now we got the cherry, but do we have the pieces here and in the system already along with some near future drafts. This is exactly what concerns me. The previous Hawk team had developed largely organically, from the players in the minors and some very fortunate trades, e.g. Trump and Versteeg. Now, KD is trying to start from nothing and design a team just based on his own vision. We'll see, but I am skeptical. It’s a major challenge - no doubt about it. Fortunately (I think) KD is not doing it all single handedly. Well that is if he succeeds. If he fails the org will say he did it all himself. We won’t know for quite some time. |
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Post by ebonyraptor on May 11, 2023 11:21:13 GMT -6
I think the main reason the main objective of the 2023/24 season (after doing whatever is necessary to help Bedard transition into the NHL) is to get the best draft position possible by not constructing the roster for the purpose of winning games - is because the forward prospect cupboard is not teeming with guys even close to NHL ready. The time to transition from "lose now" to "win now" needs to be determined by when the Hawks have forwards transition from prospects to NHL players. The Hawks have enough d-prospects to get started in auditioning 2 or 3 of them at the NHL level over the next 2 or 3 years to figure out the keepers and get their NHL game experience clock ticking for them. But the forward prospect group isn't there yet.
The Hawks have (2) forwards who are NHL ready - Bedard and Reichel - that's it. Just focusing on top-6 guys - they still need 4 more. Who are those guys? Maybe Nazer but he's at least 1 years away. And then there are guys like Greene and Dach and maybe one or two more who may be ready in a year or two or three but are far from being sure things. Maybe one of those top-6 spots can be filled with a free agent but if more than one is filled by a high priced free agent worthy of playing top-6 - then you will inevitably run into salary cap problems sooner than if those top-6 roles are filled with players on their ELC's.
Hopefully the Hawks can draft a top-6 level player or two in the 2023 draft but most likely they will be at least 1 year away from starting their NHL career. The same for the players drafted in 2024 - except if the Hawks get a top-5 selection in 2024 and the chance to draft a player like Celebrini or Eiserman who could be one of those rare players who is immediately ready for the NHL.
Stay the course - be patient. Suffer through another season of losing - sacrifice the short term for the long term. At least this time we'll get to watch Bedard which is more than enough to keep me happy and entertained.
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Post by mvr on May 11, 2023 11:36:00 GMT -6
I think at this point you simply have to build around Bedard. I don't think it needs to be an outright tankjob like last season. We do have to start getting kids in there, be it homegrown or young guys we acquire, so I hope the time of signing in decrepit vets is over. I think at this point each acquisition has to be done with the express purpose of pushing the rebuild forward. If that means getting someone in there short term who can teach the kids how to won? fine. if that means trading out a longtime prospect for someone a bit closer, so be it. But, I don't think the onus should be "win now". KD sounds like he's trying to plan for the long term, not a short-term one-and-done--which is a good thing. For the rest? We can't overlook luck. Would the 'hawks have had a 49 year drought if a bounce went the other way? I think it was '71 we were very close. I'm not so naïve that I think that KD could actually do everything right and we still come up short like 1992. Different than previous rebuild where the team was built first, then the cherry on top, Toews and Kane. Now we got the cherry, but do we have the pieces here and in the system already along with some near future drafts. It is the wrong order and could be problematic. I would prefer the defence and checkers established first. |
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Post by steamer on May 11, 2023 11:42:51 GMT -6
Different than previous rebuild where the team was built first, then the cherry on top, Toews and Kane. Now we got the cherry, but do we have the pieces here and in the system already along with some near future drafts. It is the wrong order and could be problematic. I would prefer the defence and checkers established first. That could have been the plan until this past Monday night. They may have to go the NJ route and bring in a #1 D-man via FA. |
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Post by BigT on May 11, 2023 12:31:28 GMT -6
It is the wrong order and could be problematic. I would prefer the defence and checkers established first. That could have been the plan until this past Monday night. They may have to go the NJ route and bring in a #1 D-man via FA. Jones is here for now. On a good team he’s much better than Hamilton. Jones is a solid dman that has more good to offer than most dmen. That’s why keeping him for now is the best path forward!!! |
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Post by hsbob on May 11, 2023 12:54:12 GMT -6
1st off,YOU READ ALL THAT?LOL! Personally,I see a benefit in a handful of decent/good,early-mid 20yro's who've figured out how to win a bit in place when youngsters start to arrive vs a team full of bad contract veterans who've been bottom-feeding/tanking the last several years. Gotta walk before you can run,there are teams in those 16-20th spots in limbo like the Caps and Pens but there are others in those spots like the Sabres and Sens honing their craft as well. NJ was three last year. Aspiring for greatness with mostly kids going from worst to first in short-order did happen here back in '10' but it's rare and it took a few real good trades and a WHALE of an UFA signing to complete! TB was a good team for some time before they won back-back cups and the Avs and Caps were also good for years before they won theirs. We don't want to be the team that lost in the 2nd round or the team that only won one cup I hear.........it's 'Juggernaut' or bust? Is there even one 'juggernaut' in the league at the moment? How many of those mid-pack or early exit or single cup winning teams were well-run with well balanced rosters? A young group of players aspiring for greatness that includes Connor Bedard is indeed a massive advantage and the sheer number of high picks last year,this year and next should be expected to yield a top D-man or two IMO. The rest of the roster will still have to be completed properly though,or we join the group described above. Will basking in the glory and good fortune of landing Bedard be enough cover to tank another year or two? Does Bedard have decent linemates? If so,does he score enough to harm a tank? If not,does he enjoy not scoring a lot and losing a lot? I think at this point you simply have to build around Bedard. I don't think it needs to be an outright tankjob like last season. We do have to start getting kids in there, be it homegrown or young guys we acquire, so I hope the time of signing in decrepit vets is over. I think at this point each acquisition has to be done with the express purpose of pushing the rebuild forward. If that means getting someone in there short term who can teach the kids how to won? fine. if that means trading out a longtime prospect for someone a bit closer, so be it. But, I don't think the onus should be "win now". KD sounds like he's trying to plan for the long term, not a short-term one-and-done--which is a good thing. For the rest? We can't overlook luck. Would the 'hawks have had a 49 year drought if a bounce went the other way? I think it was '71 we were very close. I'm not so naïve that I think that KD could actually do everything right and we still come up short like 1992. I wasn't suggesting trading prospects in their early 20's but it is better than losing more for nothing. I suggested the possibility of trading some of the mountain of picks for a few higher quality young players who might offer the younger players a better atmosphere when they arrive.......I didn't suggest "win now". That's not the long-term plan as you said,that includes more tanking and more high picks apparently and that's ONE way to go about it. We don't want to be "one and done" or an 'early PO out' every year or the Kings or the Rags or certainly not a team that just missed or Tampa Bay,who's bound for lottery territory(YEAH RIGHT!)I read.....so it's 'Juggernaut' or bust? 'One and done' sounds good to me from where we sit but better is good too. Most teams have to learn to walk before they can run but it sounds like we're gonna go from 'crawl' directly to fly.....we'll see. I just thought a somewhat more competitive team would be a better environment for kids to join and losing begets losing. Maybe a bunch of kids will immediately transform a years-long bottom feeder/tank team into that 'Juggernaut' but that's a big ask for inexperienced,young guy's .......we'll see in 3 to 5 to 7 years I guess if I'm still kickin'. A 3rd consecutive bottom-feeding,tank season next year will result in SIX 1st round picks and TWENTY in the first three rounds over that span to go along with the lower round picks,most team's systems could struggle with that many same age-range players in it at the same time but we got a better plan than most too it seems and we're taking the game in a new direction. Maybe more tanks and even more high picks will result in that "long term" success but it definitely pushes winning out several more years and that will result in zero accountability for on-ice performance until when? Until all the kids arrive? They can take a few years to develop......a few more after arrival? We'll be 'neck-deep' in this plan before we see the outcome,with all the tanking for picks and trading good,young players for picks.........success better God dammed well follow! Be it long or short term. |
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Post by 2old4this on May 11, 2023 15:42:12 GMT -6
Next year I think Hawks will get a top 5 pick, but another 5’11” player may not be needed. Celebrini looks pretty awesome. But the Hawks already have size issues again. Need some size soon!!! only 3 of the 32 lads are over 190 lbs., and of those 3 only one cracks 200 lbs. of course they still have another year to fatten up.... Have you checked out Daniil But? He looks interesting. |
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Post by LordKOTL on May 12, 2023 8:07:17 GMT -6
I think at this point you simply have to build around Bedard. I don't think it needs to be an outright tankjob like last season. We do have to start getting kids in there, be it homegrown or young guys we acquire, so I hope the time of signing in decrepit vets is over. I think at this point each acquisition has to be done with the express purpose of pushing the rebuild forward. If that means getting someone in there short term who can teach the kids how to won? fine. if that means trading out a longtime prospect for someone a bit closer, so be it. But, I don't think the onus should be "win now". KD sounds like he's trying to plan for the long term, not a short-term one-and-done--which is a good thing. For the rest? We can't overlook luck. Would the 'hawks have had a 49 year drought if a bounce went the other way? I think it was '71 we were very close. I'm not so naïve that I think that KD could actually do everything right and we still come up short like 1992. Different than previous rebuild where the team was built first, then the cherry on top, Toews and Kane. Now we got the cherry, but do we have the pieces here and in the system already along with some near future drafts. I'm hoping there's some magic to Korch and Allan; it would help a ton, but who knows. I don't think it's impossible to do the rebuild inverse of what we did for the previous build. It just means that different decisions have to be made. I can't remember if it was this board or not where someone said it might be we have to get another 1-2 D-man on the FA market, but it is a possibility, albeit an unideal one. That would just mean some other focus has to be built from within rather than without. So if it turns out that our top-2 is Jones+an FA, as opposed to homegrown, that might mean another key piece (like the Hossa piece) has to be developed from within. Difficult, but not impossible. Either way, I might add. As others have said, I think KD has done a decent job so far. Some misses some hits. But his job is nowhere near over yet. The rest of the pics are going to be just as important, not to mention next year--plus the wheeling and dealing for other assets to come. |
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Post by LordKOTL on May 12, 2023 8:13:12 GMT -6
That could have been the plan until this past Monday night. They may have to go the NJ route and bring in a #1 D-man via FA. Jones is here for now. On a good team he’s much better than Hamilton. Jones is a solid dman that has more good to offer than most dmen. That’s why keeping him for now is the best path forward!!! As I've said before: Jones is like a Campbell (but never put true fear into RJ Umberger or anyone else). He's not so much like a Keith who does it all. If we could find, or develop a guy who could be a Hjammer to Jones' Campbell that would set up a great D-pairing. Murphy isn't it. Yeah, Jones is paid like a franchise guy and is here for he duration, but a good test of KD's mettle is making that work for us rather than against us. |
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Post by Nikos on May 12, 2023 8:54:35 GMT -6
Different than previous rebuild where the team was built first, then the cherry on top, Toews and Kane. Now we got the cherry, but do we have the pieces here and in the system already along with some near future drafts. I'm hoping there's some magic to Korch and Allan; it would help a ton, but who knows. I don't think it's impossible to do the rebuild inverse of what we did for the previous build. It just means that different decisions have to be made. I can't remember if it was this board or not where someone said it might be we have to get another 1-2 D-man on the FA market, but it is a possibility, albeit an unideal one. That would just mean some other focus has to be built from within rather than without. So if it turns out that our top-2 is Jones+an FA, as opposed to homegrown, that might mean another key piece (like the Hossa piece) has to be developed from within. Difficult, but not impossible. Either way, I might add. As others have said, I think KD has done a decent job so far. Some misses some hits. But his job is nowhere near over yet. The rest of the pics are going to be just as important, not to mention next year--plus the wheeling and dealing for other assets to come. Lord, I agree KD has done a decent job, the one thing we still need to see is the development piece, this is critical, still not completely sold we have the right people in place, but time will tell here shortly. Let's see after this summer and in training camp where Korchinski. EDM and Allan are, is Reichel ready to be a top six guy forward? Has Soderholm taken the next step to be a reliable back-up and pushing for a starter role in the NHL? For all of the raw talent and ability of Rinzel, how does he compare this year from his pre-draft days? We know Ludwinski has a high motor and hard worker, has any other parts of his game improved? Is Kaiser ready to make the team full time? Is Nazar fully healthy and ready to dominate at Michigan with Fantilli gone? Yes, making sure players are healthy and taking care of their bodies is all part of development. I know T-man has been critical of the development staff in place and I must say I need to see a lot more to be convinced we have the right team. |
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Post by LordKOTL on May 12, 2023 9:51:44 GMT -6
I'm hoping there's some magic to Korch and Allan; it would help a ton, but who knows. I don't think it's impossible to do the rebuild inverse of what we did for the previous build. It just means that different decisions have to be made. I can't remember if it was this board or not where someone said it might be we have to get another 1-2 D-man on the FA market, but it is a possibility, albeit an unideal one. That would just mean some other focus has to be built from within rather than without. So if it turns out that our top-2 is Jones+an FA, as opposed to homegrown, that might mean another key piece (like the Hossa piece) has to be developed from within. Difficult, but not impossible. Either way, I might add. As others have said, I think KD has done a decent job so far. Some misses some hits. But his job is nowhere near over yet. The rest of the pics are going to be just as important, not to mention next year--plus the wheeling and dealing for other assets to come. Lord, I agree KD has done a decent job, the one thing we still need to see is the development piece, this is critical, still not completely sold we have the right people in place, but time will tell here shortly. Let's see after this summer and in training camp where Korchinski. EDM and Allan are, is Reichel ready to be a top six guy forward? Has Soderholm taken the next step to be a reliable back-up and pushing for a starter role in the NHL? For all of the raw talent and ability of Rinzel, how does he compare this year from his pre-draft days? We know Ludwinski has a high motor and hard worker, has any other parts of his game improved? Is Kaiser ready to make the team full time? Is Nazar fully healthy and ready to dominate at Michigan with Fantilli gone? Yes, making sure players are healthy and taking care of their bodies is all part of development. I know T-man has been critical of the development staff in place and I must say I need to see a lot more to be convinced we have the right team. Unfortunately, I think it will be awhile before we realize we have the right guys in place for the developmental squad. I think cautious optimism is the right path. I will say this: I like what KD has put out better than what Stan has put out in terms of development. Is it on the hallowed Mike Smith/Dale Tallon level? Maybe not--I'm not sure and I don't think it will be until it's all over--like it was for Smith/Tallon. But I think we've started out in a good direction. There is still plenty of chances to screw the pooch along the way. |
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Post by hsbob on May 12, 2023 10:19:13 GMT -6
Lord, I agree KD has done a decent job, the one thing we still need to see is the development piece, this is critical, still not completely sold we have the right people in place, but time will tell here shortly. Let's see after this summer and in training camp where Korchinski. EDM and Allan are, is Reichel ready to be a top six guy forward? Has Soderholm taken the next step to be a reliable back-up and pushing for a starter role in the NHL? For all of the raw talent and ability of Rinzel, how does he compare this year from his pre-draft days? We know Ludwinski has a high motor and hard worker, has any other parts of his game improved? Is Kaiser ready to make the team full time? Is Nazar fully healthy and ready to dominate at Michigan with Fantilli gone? Yes, making sure players are healthy and taking care of their bodies is all part of development. I know T-man has been critical of the development staff in place and I must say I need to see a lot more to be convinced we have the right team. Unfortunately, I think it will be awhile before we realize we have the right guys in place for the developmental squad. I think cautious optimism is the right path. I will say this: I like what KD has put out better than what Stan has put out in terms of development. Is it on the hallowed Mike Smith/Dale Tallon level? Maybe not--I'm not sure and I don't think it will be until it's all over--like it was for Smith/Tallon. But I think we've started out in a good direction. There is still plenty of chances to screw the pooch along the way. How so? The Asst General Manager,Player Development Mark Eaton was hired by who again? I think Maciver was a good hire but Megan Hunter and Brian Campbell's promotions are still to be assessed. I dunno what can be relied on from his superiors or the other Assoc GM who came from MLB as far as development insight.....do you? |
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