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Post by LordKOTL on Jul 10, 2024 17:02:32 GMT -6
I agree on the coaches. If we can jettison Yawney and Savard, we should be able to jettison LR. I'll have to update some tabulations I worked on a few years ago to see if there are any trends happening that can skew the point aggregation. My general take is 2nd and 3rd worse will not be acceptable; we should be close to the top of the bottom 3rd or at the bottom of the middle 3rd in the league--in that area. I'd say 77-83 points should eb a good target UNLESS the Central is 2015 tough--like Avs at the bottom of the central with 90 points. That would skew the results. I see that there are maybe four tier 1 teams in Western Conference, Dallas, Colorado, Vancouver, and Edmonton; and then there's more or less parity. With Nazar, Dach, Slaggert, and even Gutman in the minors, the Hawks should be able to withstand an injury or two. They won't end up with Blackwell and Anderson playing on the top line. Agreed, but like I said if we run into a Central Division like it was in 2015, we will be the piñata and the aggregate points will drop from expected because we'd see so many tough teams so often. We can't really predict that, though. Like you and most here, I think we should be in a much better spot than last year--we should have depth to absorb an injury or two and there should be no way in any of the seven hells than Soder should see NHL ice, which should increase our chances at getting more standings points. |
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Post by bigbarn27 on Jul 10, 2024 18:00:31 GMT -6
Hawks finished 25 pts. less than the Yotes last year. Even if the Hawks improve 5-8 wins, they still be in the division cellar. I don’t see this roster as anywhere near last years. It was dominantly an AHL team. We know all the suspects from last year. And it seemed Bedard kept the team competitive. So, Id have to think the team is somewhere in the 13-15 wins better category. Last year was by design. Then injuries took over. I don’t think that’ll be a problem this year!!! Thats a tall ask at the end of the day hawks have added bottom 6 players and 3rd pair Dmen. But I love your optimism and I hope something clicks this year!! |
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Post by BigT on Jul 10, 2024 18:50:38 GMT -6
I don’t see this roster as anywhere near last years. It was dominantly an AHL team. We know all the suspects from last year. And it seemed Bedard kept the team competitive. So, Id have to think the team is somewhere in the 13-15 wins better category. Last year was by design. Then injuries took over. I don’t think that’ll be a problem this year!!! Thats a tall ask at the end of the day hawks have added bottom 6 players and 3rd pair Dmen. But I love your optimism and I hope something clicks this year!! TJ will be much better. He didn’t care for Toronta at the end. His father passed away last summer and didn’t have time to fully get ready for the season. He’s pumped to get ready for this year. Very. When I look at Bedard, Kurashev, AA, Hall, Turbo, Bertuzzi. That’s a very good top 6 now. Add in an actual bottom 6. Solid tending. The D is I’ll be much much better than anyone will know. I seriously believe Seth will be top 5 in D scoring. Add in another year for Vlasic. I think we’ll see a massive step forward!!! |
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Post by galaxytrash on Jul 10, 2024 19:08:52 GMT -6
Thats a tall ask at the end of the day hawks have added bottom 6 players and 3rd pair Dmen. But I love your optimism and I hope something clicks this year!! TJ will be much better. He didn’t care for Toronta at the end. His father passed away last summer and didn’t have time to fully get ready for the season. He’s pumped to get ready for this year. Very. When I look at Bedard, Kurashev, AA, Hall, Turbo, Bertuzzi. That’s a very good top 6 now. Add in an actual bottom 6. Solid tending. The D is I’ll be much much better than anyone will know. I seriously believe Seth will be top 5 in D scoring. Add in another year for Vlasic. I think we’ll see a massive step forward!!! the last 5 seasons with 82 games, the 5th highest scoring defenseman has scored 76, 73, 71, 62 and 63 points. seth's best year was way back in 17/18 when he managed 57 points on a playoff team in columbus. like bb said...gotta' admire your optimism and me, i'm optimistic to a fault sometimes but i'm not seeing it. if you're right you'll hear it from me first, i promise. |
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Post by ebonyraptor on Jul 10, 2024 19:39:17 GMT -6
Tis the season for optimism and I'm a glass half full guy by nature - but when it comes to predicting how well the Hawks (or Bears - the other team I call my own) will do - I'm just freakin skittish.
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Post by BigT on Jul 10, 2024 19:46:28 GMT -6
TJ will be much better. He didn’t care for Toronta at the end. His father passed away last summer and didn’t have time to fully get ready for the season. He’s pumped to get ready for this year. Very. When I look at Bedard, Kurashev, AA, Hall, Turbo, Bertuzzi. That’s a very good top 6 now. Add in an actual bottom 6. Solid tending. The D is I’ll be much much better than anyone will know. I seriously believe Seth will be top 5 in D scoring. Add in another year for Vlasic. I think we’ll see a massive step forward!!! the last 5 seasons with 82 games, the 5th highest scoring defenseman has scored 76, 73, 71, 62 and 63 points. seth's best year was way back in 17/18 when he managed 57 points on a playoff team in columbus. like bb said...gotta' admire your optimism and me, i'm optimistic to a fault sometimes but i'm not seeing it. if you're right you'll hear it from me first, i promise. All I’ll say it this. Bedard. Seth scored I believe 8 goals when he returned. Bedard will get a lot of points this year top 12 in scoring. Someone will be getting points with him. I believe this will be Seth’s year. On a side note. I may have said this before. But my buddy’s dad did some work with the Dallas Stars back in the late 90s early 2000s. He tought the Jones bros how to skate and got them started. He says they’re great kids and the parents are just awesome. From his time in Toronta, he learned hockey is great. His boys took to it, and here we are. So I have a bit of a soft spot for him. However. When he has a game that he mails it in. I’ll be the first to say so. But this year he’s gonna be a beast!!! |
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Post by BigT on Jul 10, 2024 19:47:20 GMT -6
Tis the season for optimism and I'm a glass half full guy by nature - but when it comes to predicting how well the Hawks (or Bears - the other team I call my own) will do - I'm just freakin skittish. If you’re glass is half full, get a shorter glass!!! |
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Post by vadarx on Jul 10, 2024 20:37:58 GMT -6
penciling in Big T for Bedard with his first overall pick and then for Jones when it gets back to him in the second round...
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Post by galaxytrash on Jul 10, 2024 21:49:09 GMT -6
the last 5 seasons with 82 games, the 5th highest scoring defenseman has scored 76, 73, 71, 62 and 63 points. seth's best year was way back in 17/18 when he managed 57 points on a playoff team in columbus. like bb said...gotta' admire your optimism and me, i'm optimistic to a fault sometimes but i'm not seeing it. if you're right you'll hear it from me first, i promise. All I’ll say it this. Bedard. Seth scored I believe 8 goals when he returned. Bedard will get a lot of points this year top 12 in scoring. Someone will be getting points with him. I believe this will be Seth’s year. close. he scored 7 of his 8 after bedard's return and scored the other in bedard's absence on january 19th. and his 7 goals scored since bedard's return february 15th to season's end was tied for 5th most for d-men. however, his 15 points in that time frame (7 goals 8 assists) was only good for 29th among d-men and his .52 points/game was 35th among d-men who had played at least 20 games, again same time frame. so...he's got a ways to go. maybe playing with an improved bedard along with an improved team will help him get there. anyhoo...here's my prediction. brossoit will get us 8 more points than last year. our additions/subtractions on defense will get us 6 more. our additions/subtractions at forward another 8 points. keeping it down to a normal amount of injuries gets us another 4 points. so last year's 23-53-6 for 52 points will become 35-39-8 for 78 points. |
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Post by galaxytrash on Jul 10, 2024 21:52:57 GMT -6
this from one of YT's hardest working contributor's.
he's put out 8 videos similar to this one in the last day. and this is the off season.
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Post by galaxytrash on Jul 10, 2024 22:40:16 GMT -6
I see what you did there Shoreses Ill owe my woman 1 and go with 68. 31-45-6 Gonna still be a long year but there is no way they can be worse than last year is there. Wasn’t last year the worst they’ve ever had? idk if this is the worst ever because i got tired of scrolling, but in 1953/54 they went 12-51-7 for a messy .221 points percentage. in 50/51 they were a .257 team as well. there were some bad blackhawks teams in the '50s. last year they were .317 points percentage, so it could've been worse. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Chicago_Blackhawks_seasons |
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Post by BigT on Jul 11, 2024 7:49:32 GMT -6
During the draft the Sportsnet crew said the Hawks have never picked 2nd overall. Also that 52 points was their lowest point total ever. Maybe in the 82 game era? Nonetheless, it was a bad year that I hope bares fruit. It’d be a shame to get a 4th dman and a 4th liner outta this whole draft. Especially when you pick historically high!!!
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Post by Nikos on Jul 11, 2024 8:08:04 GMT -6
this from one of YT's hardest working contributor's. he's put out 8 videos similar to this one in the last day. and this is the off season. I agree this guy provides a lot of good objective data & information. |
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Post by LordKOTL on Jul 11, 2024 8:09:10 GMT -6
the last 5 seasons with 82 games, the 5th highest scoring defenseman has scored 76, 73, 71, 62 and 63 points. seth's best year was way back in 17/18 when he managed 57 points on a playoff team in columbus. like bb said...gotta' admire your optimism and me, i'm optimistic to a fault sometimes but i'm not seeing it. if you're right you'll hear it from me first, i promise. All I’ll say it this. Bedard. Seth scored I believe 8 goals when he returned. Bedard will get a lot of points this year top 12 in scoring. Someone will be getting points with him. I believe this will be Seth’s year. On a side note. I may have said this before. But my buddy’s dad did some work with the Dallas Stars back in the late 90s early 2000s. He tought the Jones bros how to skate and got them started. He says they’re great kids and the parents are just awesome. From his time in Toronta, he learned hockey is great. His boys took to it, and here we are. So I have a bit of a soft spot for him. However. When he has a game that he mails it in. I’ll be the first to say so. But this year he’s gonna be a beast!!! I'm more concerned about the 8 SHGs that Jones was responsible for while we were on the powerplay, to be honest (at least it seemed like 8). I won't complain about a banner year from him offensively, but if he could stop coughing up the puck at the blueline and letting the PK'ers beat him back, that'd be great. |
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Post by bigbarn27 on Jul 11, 2024 8:16:57 GMT -6
the last 5 seasons with 82 games, the 5th highest scoring defenseman has scored 76, 73, 71, 62 and 63 points. seth's best year was way back in 17/18 when he managed 57 points on a playoff team in columbus. like bb said...gotta' admire your optimism and me, i'm optimistic to a fault sometimes but i'm not seeing it. if you're right you'll hear it from me first, i promise. All I’ll say it this. Bedard. Seth scored I believe 8 goals when he returned. Bedard will get a lot of points this year top 12 in scoring. Someone will be getting points with him. I believe this will be Seth’s year. On a side note. I may have said this before. But my buddy’s dad did some work with the Dallas Stars back in the late 90s early 2000s. He tought the Jones bros how to skate and got them started. He says they’re great kids and the parents are just awesome. From his time in Toronta, he learned hockey is great. His boys took to it, and here we are. So I have a bit of a soft spot for him. However. When he has a game that he mails it in. I’ll be the first to say so. But this year he’s gonna be a beast!!! As most know on here I am a Seth defender I spent the year doing it on this site and the UC. His only draw back is he tried to do to much I think Luke helped him with that. As far as the team getting better every team in the bottom 3rd is getting better. Again hope you are right!! |
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Post by bigbarn27 on Jul 11, 2024 8:25:10 GMT -6
All I’ll say it this. Bedard. Seth scored I believe 8 goals when he returned. Bedard will get a lot of points this year top 12 in scoring. Someone will be getting points with him. I believe this will be Seth’s year. On a side note. I may have said this before. But my buddy’s dad did some work with the Dallas Stars back in the late 90s early 2000s. He tought the Jones bros how to skate and got them started. He says they’re great kids and the parents are just awesome. From his time in Toronta, he learned hockey is great. His boys took to it, and here we are. So I have a bit of a soft spot for him. However. When he has a game that he mails it in. I’ll be the first to say so. But this year he’s gonna be a beast!!! I'm more concerned about the 8 SHGs that Jones was responsible for while we were on the powerplay, to be honest (at least it seemed like 8). I won't complain about a banner year from him offensively, but if he could stop coughing up the puck at the blueline and letting the PK'ers beat him back, that'd be great. Unsure what his # was but off the top of my head KK did it 3 times on the PP. I would like to find a stat as far as keep ins by a Dman but it seems to escape me. |
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Post by hsbob on Jul 11, 2024 9:36:15 GMT -6
I believe Nashville might be in the top tier now or banging on the door, they played well versus Vancouver in playoffs and by most so-called experts had an excellent free agent signing class. I do agree the depth should be much better when an injury occurs. Good point! They may, in fact, replace Dallas as on of the top tier teams. I have some doubts about Dallas. It may be just Vancouver, Edmonton, and Nashville -- then it all flattens out. Depending on injuries,Vegas might be as good as any of em out west. Eichel,Stone and Pietrangelo all missed about a quarter of the season,and they still had 98 points. |
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Post by hsbob on Jul 11, 2024 10:08:28 GMT -6
All I’ll say it this. Bedard. Seth scored I believe 8 goals when he returned. Bedard will get a lot of points this year top 12 in scoring. Someone will be getting points with him. I believe this will be Seth’s year. On a side note. I may have said this before. But my buddy’s dad did some work with the Dallas Stars back in the late 90s early 2000s. He tought the Jones bros how to skate and got them started. He says they’re great kids and the parents are just awesome. From his time in Toronta, he learned hockey is great. His boys took to it, and here we are. So I have a bit of a soft spot for him. However. When he has a game that he mails it in. I’ll be the first to say so. But this year he’s gonna be a beast!!! As most know on here I am a Seth defender I spent the year doing it on this site and the UC. His only draw back is he tried to do to much I think Luke helped him with that. As far as the team getting better every team in the bottom 3rd is getting better. Again hope you are right!! His other drawback is being a holdover from the last regime,scutiny is reserved for these guys with the exception of Vlasic. |
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Post by hsbob on Jul 11, 2024 10:29:48 GMT -6
I'll wait till camp and PS to take a shot at a prediction myself. Do we see a healthy and productive Hall? A healthy and effective AA,Murphy or Martinez? Maybe we see some line combos gel in a few PS games and an engaged Reichel. IF these questions are answered sufficiently,I see the possibility of a team that can win as many as it loses and a much more competitive environment.
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Post by steamer on Jul 11, 2024 10:39:36 GMT -6
I think the team will be better than last year (it better be!!) but not playoff ready for another season. 32-36-14 for78points (26 points better than’23-‘24. Agree with the bulk of the other comments made so far. Really hope some youngsters other than CB shine next season
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Post by vadarx on Jul 11, 2024 14:26:50 GMT -6
Good point! They may, in fact, replace Dallas as on of the top tier teams. I have some doubts about Dallas. It may be just Vancouver, Edmonton, and Nashville -- then it all flattens out. Depending on injuries,Vegas might be as good as any of em out west. Eichel,Stone and Pietrangelo all missed about a quarter of the season,and they still had 98 points. your first three words are doing a lot of the heavy lifting there. I agree, Vegas will be a tough out IF they can stay healthy. that seems to be a tall task for them nowadays and I'm not sure it gets better with their aging team... |
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Post by hawkfaninpdx on Jul 11, 2024 16:05:03 GMT -6
I don’t see this roster as anywhere near last years. It was dominantly an AHL team. We know all the suspects from last year. And it seemed Bedard kept the team competitive. So, Id have to think the team is somewhere in the 13-15 wins better category. Last year was by design. Then injuries took over. I don’t think that’ll be a problem this year!!! Thats a tall ask at the end of the day hawks have added bottom 6 players and 3rd pair Dmen. But I love your optimism and I hope something clicks this year!! Both Bertuzzi and Teuvo were top 6 in scoring on their teams. Teuvo was tied for 3rd. Both of them would be top 6 on pretty much every team. Mihkeyev, Smith, and Maroon are a huge improvement on the bottom 6. Additionally, Shevy, KK, and Vlassic should be on the upward trajectory. We'll see about Reichel. Just looking at it very linearly: the Hawks have added about 60 or so goals for; and subtracted maybe 35 goals against. So, again, I am calling for 80-ish points, although a lot depends on how the team gels together. |
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Post by hsbob on Jul 12, 2024 7:06:00 GMT -6
Thats a tall ask at the end of the day hawks have added bottom 6 players and 3rd pair Dmen. But I love your optimism and I hope something clicks this year!! Both Bertuzzi and Teuvo were top 6 in scoring on their teams. Teuvo was tied for 3rd. Both of them would be top 6 on pretty much every team. Mihkeyev, Smith, and Maroon are a huge improvement on the bottom 6. Additionally, Shevy, KK, and Vlassic should be on the upward trajectory. We'll see about Reichel. Just looking at it very linearly: the Hawks have added about 60 or so goals for; and subtracted maybe 35 goals against. So, again, I am calling for 80-ish points, although a lot depends on how the team gels together. To be objective,I have to agree with your assessment of the new additions but at the end of the day,we are talking about a higher quality of stop-gap players for the 'here and now'. Don't get me wrong,I've called or a more competitive atmosphere for Bedard and the rest of the kids to come and I believe we should see that,BUT the trades and FA signings that will put the finishing touches on the rebuild are yet to be made. |
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Post by hawkfaninpdx on Jul 12, 2024 12:45:43 GMT -6
Both Bertuzzi and Teuvo were top 6 in scoring on their teams. Teuvo was tied for 3rd. Both of them would be top 6 on pretty much every team. Mihkeyev, Smith, and Maroon are a huge improvement on the bottom 6. Additionally, Shevy, KK, and Vlassic should be on the upward trajectory. We'll see about Reichel. Just looking at it very linearly: the Hawks have added about 60 or so goals for; and subtracted maybe 35 goals against. So, again, I am calling for 80-ish points, although a lot depends on how the team gels together. To be objective,I have to agree with your assessment of the new additions but at the end of the day,we are talking about a higher quality of stop-gap players for the 'here and now'. Don't get me wrong,I've called or a more competitive atmosphere for Bedard and the rest of the kids to come and I believe we should see that,BUT the trades and FA signings that will put the finishing touches on the rebuild are yet to be made. Absolutely! It's all just interim steps to boost competitiveness and get the young kids out of the doldrums of losing every night. In '26 they will naturally start shedding some players. Hall, Maroon, maybe Foligno and Smith will be gone. Hopefully, some of the draft picks will start to pan out. And maybe in a couple of years, they will make a play for Drasaitl, after the Oilers will flame out; or someone else of the similar stature. First, though, the Hawks have to demonstrate that they are an actual team and not a speed bump. |
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Post by LordKOTL on Jul 12, 2024 13:15:09 GMT -6
I'm more concerned about the 8 SHGs that Jones was responsible for while we were on the powerplay, to be honest (at least it seemed like 8). I won't complain about a banner year from him offensively, but if he could stop coughing up the puck at the blueline and letting the PK'ers beat him back, that'd be great. Unsure what his # was but off the top of my head KK did it 3 times on the PP. I would like to find a stat as far as keep ins by a Dman but it seems to escape me. I know that Jones had more SHG's against that were his fault over Korch. Unfortunately keep-ins are not a stat that is covered. In Korch's case you kind of understand it--he's a rookie D-man and will make mistake like all rookie D-men will. Jones should have the experience to alter his game to the point where if the puck gets past him on the PP he's not in a position to get beat like he was an aging Rosival or aging Seabrook--and I expect the same from Korch in a year or two. Plus, Soderblom was a sieve so last-chance saves were an exception, and not a rule. Ultimately, I think LR takes the blame for the SHG against number; neither Jones nor Korch are defensive defensemen, and no one up front last year was defensively inclined. I would have considered another D-man on the PP--especially in games where giving up a shorty would have been devastating. Vlassic or even Murph with the expectation that they play it deep and their #1 duty is to get back on the backcheck as if they had a rocket up their ass. |
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Post by steamer on Jul 13, 2024 12:23:37 GMT -6
With all the turnover on the Canes, could Aho be pried away. What a linemate he would be with Bedard.
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Post by reylohawks on Oct 1, 2024 12:48:18 GMT -6
It's always interesting to hear a neutral commentary on the team. Good or bad speakers on the outside will just tell it like it is.
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Post by squishy24 on Oct 8, 2024 17:54:45 GMT -6
Team Expectation (or at least what i hope to happen, at least): top 20 finish
Prediction (or what i think will happen): ends around 20th-25th, possibly a 6-8th pick in the draft
Mrazek- exp, suits up in about 60+ games whether a started or backup.
Pred- gets injured (frequently) and suits up to only 30-40
Brossoit-exp, suits up in about 60+ games, a starter or a backup. Competes to be a legit 1B option
Pred- becomes the starter on most games, not because of great play, but because of Mrazek poor play or injury. But gives a good enough performance that warrants his contract
Commesso- exp, suit up for about 15-20 games. And actually shows a flash of a future starter
Pred- (seen not enough to make one)
KK- exp, suits up for about 40-50 games, plays good enough so no more talk about him starting in A next season
Pred- plays about 20 games, question of “another season is needed in the A” again
Levshunov- exp, plays about 10-20 games near the end and shows why hes the #2 pick. Future looks great for at least a buzz as a next season’s starter
Pred- (seen not enough to make one)
Bedard- exp, a point per game season
Pred- hate to say this but if he doesnt keep his head up and learn to anticipate late hits in the head, he’ll have the same season as last year
Nazar, Dach, Rolston, exp- 2 of these three i hope plays at least 30-40 games this season
Pred- for Nazar, most likely will meet that, but will show that he still needs to compete for a roster spot next yr. For Rolston and Dach, probably less than 10 games each and unless they truly impress, they wont see NHL minutes wearing a Hawks sweater again
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Post by ebonyraptor on Oct 8, 2024 18:29:04 GMT -6
Back on July 9th - I predicted a 14 point improvement over last season and I saw nothing in preseason to think they will be better than my original prediction - 66 points.
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Post by BigT on Oct 8, 2024 20:51:57 GMT -6
This version of the Hawks is just too slow. Won’t win many games with this speed or effort.
On the bright side, Porter Martone is looking like one of the better players you’ll see. Maybe Hawks can keep up the top 5 picks!!!
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