In The System / Prospects

[mvr]

In the modern era, there are really two different games being played every night.

You have one game where the coaches match up their best shutdown players (forward and defence) against the opponent's best scorers. This is the game where Toews, Hossa and Kane mostly played but on separate lines.

But there is the other game, featuring veteran slugs and checkers and some young kids.

Most teams in the cap era have at most three scorers, a couple of strong defensive scorers and three to four legit defencemen. The rest of the lineup consists of players with flaws - guys who can't skate, or lack experience, or lack elite skills.

There are kids like Sidney Crosby or Patrick Kane or Conner Bedard who can make an immediate impact on the top six despite their inexperience. Dach was never going to be that type of player, and neither is Reichel. Good coaches shelter their young players in less demanding bottom six type roles against less talented players.

The quality of competition on the ice at any given shift matters a great deal.   Recognizing how to match up lines was one of Joel Quenneville's great strengths.   He would never have sacrificed Dach or Reichel in this way.  The Hawks' kids should primarily play against the opponent's kids and their slugs.

[OldTimeHawky]

Sept 17, 2024 18:43:53 GMT -6 mvr said:

Dach is listed at 6'4" and 220 pounds. Likely he's up to 230-40 over the next two to three years.

Clearly, he's had bad luck with injuries, and he puts himself in a bad position at times. There is also the issue with faceoffs. But he is still young at age 23 and has 99 points already despite all the missed games.

I believe Colliton miscast him. Dach was never going to be an elite scorer. Given the right coaching, however, he's an ideal second line shutdown centre. I believe he will top out at 55-60 points. It's too early to predict, but Nazar might never score even that much.  Will Hayes even play?

To my mind, this trade was Davidson's worst. You don't trade big power forwards, and especially potential centres. They are far too hard to find. Small speed guys are available every draft.

He's 23, I doubt he'll get much heavier than 217lbs, like most sites are listing him now. 99pts in 212gms is terrible for a third overall pick. He played 60gms the last 2 seasons, 2 last season. His body is broken. Shoulders, legs, brain, he's a big target and got rocked too many times.

Nazar and Hayes are just starting their pro careers and you're calling this trade a bust, that's hilarious.

Kirbys gone but you can't get over it. Time to look forward.

[OldTimeHawky]

Sept 17, 2024 19:48:17 GMT -6 mvr said:

In the modern era, there are really two different games being played every night.

You have one game where the coaches match up their best shutdown players (forward and defence) against the opponent's best scorers. This is the game where Toews, Hossa and Kane mostly played but on separate lines.

But there is the other game, featuring veteran slugs and checkers and some young kids.

Most teams in the cap era have at most three scorers, a couple of strong defensive scorers and three to four legit defencemen. The rest of the lineup consists of players with flaws - guys who can't skate, or lack experience, or lack elite skills.

There are kids like Sidney Crosby or Patrick Kane or Conner Bedard who can make an immediate impact on the top six despite their inexperience. Dach was never going to be that type of player, and neither is Reichel. Good coaches shelter their young players in less demanding bottom six type roles against less talented players.

Dach played most of his first season on the 4th line with Carpenter averaging less than 10mins, that's pretty damn sheltered. He wasn't put on the top6 right away to make an immediate impact.

Near the end of that season he was moved up and played with Kubalik and assisted on his 30th before the league shut down.

[mvr]

We have no idea really what Dach weighs now. He could easily add 15-20 pounds as he physically matures and fills out his 6'4" frame. He might already have.

He was a 3rd overall pick in what was never a good draft. But so what? Why does that matter? To my mind, this was always the real issue here: people wanted more than what Dach ever was or could become.

We will see about Nazar and Hayes. We know what they can't possibly be already: physical players with size and defensive shutdown abilities. Are you writing off Dach already at age 23? He is also just getting started.

[mvr]

In his first year, Dach averaged over 14 minutes a game. By year two (age 19) he was up to 18 minutes game.

[BigT]

Let’s be honest, Dach was ruined by Scambo and Colliton. He should have been sent back to Jrs. Then to the farm. Not for a whole year, just for a bit to get him acclimated to the pro game. He was destined to fail with the way they treated him!!!

[BigT]

This is the interview. The point about being a shut down guy is at roughly 19:30. It was his 3rd year and he was supposed to play with “Kane and Cat” and they had him be a shut down guy. Pretty sad to hear what he says. Also, I was wrong. It was Raw Knuckles pod with Chris “Knuckles” Nilan!!!

youtu.be/g-xibw34ICk?si=5JvAPGiHQ1GUk9nb

[OldTimeHawky]

Sept 17, 2024 20:15:53 GMT -6 mvr said:

In his first year, Dach averaged over 14 minutes a game. By year two (age 19) he was up to 18 minutes game.

You don't remember him starting on the fourth line to start his career? He definitely didn't start on the top6. I vividly remember talking on these boards wondering when he'll finally get pp time and skate on the top6. Eventually he worked his way up the line until he was with Toews and Kubalik and was up to almost 20mins a night, so of course his average ice time went up to 14mins from 10.

But again, he's gone, get over it.

[OldTimeHawky]

I guess this is the Dach thread now. The guy isn't lighting it up and still injury prone, so stop complaining like he's the one that got away

The system was ranked 23rd a few years ago and now #1 but people still wanna talk about Dach, and not the one still in the system.

Get over it, he's gone and it helped replenish the system.

[ebonyraptor]

Well as long as we're discussing Kirby lamenting his fate, I'll throw in my lamentation from back then but it's directed at me. When the Hawks were gifted the #3 pick there was plenty of talk about who the Hawks should select. J.Hughes and Kakko were almost certainly going to be off the board when it was the Hawks turn to pick so the discussion eventually came down to Dach, Byram and Turcotte, with Byram and Turcotte being the two favorites in this fan's opinion. I went back and forth but I think I finally landed on Byram.

From that I lament my susceptibility to be hornswoggled into believing bad takes on things like NHL draft picks. If the 2019 draft were re-drafted - none of those guys would be in the top-10.

[LordKOTL]

Sept 18, 2024 5:14:51 GMT -6 BigT said:

Let’s be honest, Dach was ruined by Scambo and Colliton. He should have been sent back to Jrs. Then to the farm. Not for a whole year, just for a bit to get him acclimated to the pro game. He was destined to fail with the way they treated him!!!

Exactly.  Dach was ruined because Bowman the Beancounter tried his best horse-trading act with the brass and lost.  He tried to push Dach into being the next Toews and Dach wasn't able to do it.

I think at best he should have got his 10 game cup of coffee and back, but the Legume Reckoner though he was the best hockey mind in the room and his Yes-man was no better--so they tried to Push Dach into being the Next Toews.

That being said I think the smart move was to trade Dach out.  I think there might have been too much of a stigma against the 'hawks and I think the change of scenery was best for his career--kinda like what happened to Ladd--he needed a change of scenery from Carolina and we provided it.  I don't think he would have come around for us.

In addressing the size issue, we do have to remember that for every Byfuglien, there is a Svedberg.  Size for size's sake is a foolhardy game--you need size *and* the ability to play with size and utilize it.  That's the key part of it.  

I think that we will get size--probably from depth picks and trades or future drafts.

[BigT]

Sept 18, 2024 9:33:05 GMT -6 ebonyraptor said:

Well as long as we're discussing Kirby lamenting his fate, I'll throw in my lamentation from back then but it's directed at me. When the Hawks were gifted the #3 pick there was plenty of talk about who the Hawks should select. J.Hughes and Kakko were almost certainly going to be off the board when it was the Hawks turn to pick so the discussion eventually came down to Dach, Byram and Turcotte, with Byram and Turcotte being the two favorites in this fan's opinion. I went back and forth but I think I finally landed on Byram.

From that I lament my susceptibility to be hornswoggled into believing bad takes on things like NHL draft picks. If the 2019 draft were re-drafted - none of those guys would be in the top-10.

The 2nd round in 2019 is almost as good as the 1st round. Now, I still believe that Dach and Byram would have had different fates if things were done differently. I feel both needed more time in Jrs/NCAA. Both should have had at least 2 years of further development in with Jrs or in the AHL. I think now that Byram is healthy, you’ll see him bounce back very good. But I’m concerned with the 2 pillars Buffalo already has on D, is there space for Byram?

As for Dach. I really hope that he can make a career in the NHL. He just needs a full healthy season to build off of!!!

[mvr]

Dach is 23, the same age as Alex Vlasic. He already has 99 points in an NHL despite missing almost two full years (covid and injuries).

He is far from "ruined." Big two-way centres often take years to develop their games. He's just rounding into form.

Let's hope Dach's brother can soften the loss here somewhat because we all know that Nazar (who has also missed extensive time to injuries) will not be able to fill this role given his (very) small frame.

With time and some patience, Colton Dach projects as a big physical centre/winger ideal for the bottom six. My hope is that Davidson again leaves him in Rockford for the entire year. Colton Dach is two years younger than his brother (who'd already played three years in the NHL at the age Colton is now). He likely won't score as much, but perhaps he can assume the Bryan Bickell role on the third line given the right coaching and development path.

[mvr]

Let's also remember - Davidson traded away Dach, Hagel, Debrincat, Kane and others (all for futures) - not because they were disappointments but because he wanted to tank.

Some of us approved of this strategy. Others didn't.

Even still, I don't think the return for Dach in particular was nearly good enough, but of course we will have to wait five or more years to see which team benefitted most. In the end, Davidson did "win" the Bedard lottery, but that of course is just about a lottery ball drop.

I do very much like the general manager's approach this summer to both the draft and UFA. Perhaps he has a game plan for replenishing the power forward position.

[mvr]

Given what we have endured the past few years, I would sure hope that this team has the highest ranked prospect pool in the league.

To my mind, getting to this point is not really much of an accomplishment. It is the "reward" for deliberately tanking and selling all its talent over an extended period. Hooray for that.

[tincup]

On a lighter note…

[bigbarn27]

Sept 18, 2024 14:37:13 GMT -6 mvr said:

Given what we have endured the past few years, I would sure hope that this team has the highest ranked prospect pool in the league.

To my mind, getting to this point is not really much of an accomplishment. It is the "reward" for deliberately tanking and selling all its talent over an extended period. Hooray for that.

Yup easy part over I hoping KD makes me eat every bad word I have said about him. Go Hawks!

[BigT]

Sept 18, 2024 14:26:38 GMT -6 mvr said:

Let's also remember - Davidson traded away Dach, Hagel, Debrincat, Kane and others (all for futures) - not because they were disappointments but because he wanted to tank.

Some of us approved of this strategy. Others didn't.

Even still, I don't think the return for Dach in particular was nearly good enough, but of course we will have to wait five or more years to see which team benefitted most. In the end, Davidson did "win" the Bedard lottery, but that of course is just about a lottery ball drop.

I do very much like the general manager's approach this summer to both the draft and UFA. Perhaps he has a game plan for replenishing the power forward position.

MVR, I believe you’re looking at this wrong. The point is to rebuild. There’s no reward in finishing last. You’re not guaranteed a top pick anymore. The’ve accumulated draft capital. And a lot of it.

The belief is that if you get enough high picks you will get what you’re looking for. Hawks have had 8 first rounders in the last 3 years. Two more next year. That’s a good way to rebuild.

Now, the players they’ve selected may not be what they need in the end. But they’ve had a massive haul of picks in the first two rounds of multiple drafts. I think the future is bright!!!

[OldTimeHawky]

Sept 18, 2024 17:22:06 GMT -6 tincup said:

On a lighter note…

Nice snipe from the tallest center ever drafted. He's a long term project, let's hope the big guy is a diamond in the rough.

[galaxytrash]

Sept 18, 2024 21:21:08 GMT -6 OldTimeHawky said:

Sept 18, 2024 17:22:06 GMT -6 tincup said:

On a lighter note…

Nice snipe from the tallest center ever drafted. He's a long term project, let's hope the big guy is a diamond in the rough.

like always, his listed height varies from 6'5" to 6'8"...but i believe it's 6'8".
like you mentioned, if he skates in an nhl game he'll be the tallest center to ever play.
big Z leads the way at 6'9". there are 10 players listed at 6'8" (including our own louis crevier and former hawks viktor svedberg and john scott) but they are all listed as d-men or wingers. the tallest listed centers are 6'7", there are just 3.

hopefully the kid develops some snarl and a stellar defensive game because 'til now his offensive numbers don't exactly blow my hair back. but as you said...long term project for sure.

www.nhl.com/blackhawks/player/riku-tohila-8483719

[OldTimeHawky]

Sept 18, 2024 21:50:59 GMT -6 galaxytrash said:

Sept 18, 2024 21:21:08 GMT -6 OldTimeHawky said:

Nice snipe from the tallest center ever drafted. He's a long term project, let's hope the big guy is a diamond in the rough.

like always, his listed height varies from 6'5" to 6'8"...but i believe it's 6'8".
if he skates in an nhl game, he'll be the tallest center to ever play.
big Z leads the way at 6'9". there are 10 players listed at 6'8" (including our own louis crevier and former hawks viktor svedberg and john scott) but they are all listed as d-men or wingers. the tallest listed centers are 6'7", there are just 3.

hopefully the kid develops some snarl and a stellar defensive game because 'til now his offensive numbers don't exactly blow my hair back. but as you said...long term project for sure.

www.nhl.com/blackhawks/player/riku-tohila-8483719

When he was selected on draft day the TSN guys said he shot up before the draft to 6'8" and said he was the tallest, they wouldn't say it if he was 6'5". So I'm sure he's 6'8". The eye test says so.

Crevier went from 6'1" to 6'8" in a year. Sounds like Tohila had a similar sprout, I think he went up a few inches before his draft eligible season to 6'5", then another jump to 6'8".

He's definitely raw and a long shot but you can't teach size, he has that. He's agile and has good hands, but there's a lot of work to do, hopefully he's up for it.

I noticed Milton Oscarson is now listed at 6'7", 6th round center in 2023. There's a pic of him and Bedard walking and talking and Milton looked like a crime boss guard.

[LordKOTL]

Sept 18, 2024 20:38:45 GMT -6 BigT said:

Sept 18, 2024 14:26:38 GMT -6 mvr said:

Let's also remember - Davidson traded away Dach, Hagel, Debrincat, Kane and others (all for futures) - not because they were disappointments but because he wanted to tank.

Some of us approved of this strategy. Others didn't.

Even still, I don't think the return for Dach in particular was nearly good enough, but of course we will have to wait five or more years to see which team benefitted most. In the end, Davidson did "win" the Bedard lottery, but that of course is just about a lottery ball drop.

I do very much like the general manager's approach this summer to both the draft and UFA. Perhaps he has a game plan for replenishing the power forward position.

MVR, I believe you’re looking at this wrong. The point is to rebuild. There’s no reward in finishing last. You’re not guaranteed a top pick anymore. The’ve accumulated draft capital. And a lot of it.

The belief is that if you get enough high picks you will get what you’re looking for. Hawks have had 8 first rounders in the last 3 years. Two more next year. That’s a good way to rebuild.

Now, the players they’ve selected may not be what they need in the end. But they’ve had a massive haul of picks in the first two rounds of multiple drafts. I think the future is bright!!!

And if those picks turn out to be the wrong picks, KD should be shown the door.  If they work out he should stay.  Same with trades/FA acquisitions.  At this point I think he's done a decent enough job to ensure the future is hopeful, but at some point they do need to post dividends.  Maybe not this year but we should start seeing net progress forward. soon as more and more prospects start to develop.  Not every draft pick is going to hit--not even all the high picks, but overall the path should be starting the climb upward.

[OldTimeHawky]

Sept 19, 2024 15:55:42 GMT -6 LordKOTL said:

Sept 18, 2024 20:38:45 GMT -6 BigT said:

MVR, I believe you’re looking at this wrong. The point is to rebuild. There’s no reward in finishing last. You’re not guaranteed a top pick anymore. The’ve accumulated draft capital. And a lot of it.

The belief is that if you get enough high picks you will get what you’re looking for. Hawks have had 8 first rounders in the last 3 years. Two more next year. That’s a good way to rebuild.

Now, the players they’ve selected may not be what they need in the end. But they’ve had a massive haul of picks in the first two rounds of multiple drafts. I think the future is bright!!!

And if those picks turn out to be the wrong picks, KD should be shown the door.  If they work out he should stay.  Same with trades/FA acquisitions.  At this point I think he's done a decent enough job to ensure the future is hopeful, but at some point they do need to post dividends.  Maybe not this year but we should start seeing net progress forward. soon as more and more prospects start to develop.  Not every draft pick is going to hit--not even all the high picks, but overall the path should be starting the climb upward.

Well his first ever pick and the first overall in 2023 played last season, plus more have turned pro and might see NHL time this season, Nazar, Levchunov, Savoie, Ludwinski, etc. So we're starting to see how his picks pan out.

With the insane amount of picks he had, the odds are good there'll be some NHLers in there.

[BigT]

Sept 19, 2024 15:55:42 GMT -6 LordKOTL said:

Sept 18, 2024 20:38:45 GMT -6 BigT said:

MVR, I believe you’re looking at this wrong. The point is to rebuild. There’s no reward in finishing last. You’re not guaranteed a top pick anymore. The’ve accumulated draft capital. And a lot of it.

The belief is that if you get enough high picks you will get what you’re looking for. Hawks have had 8 first rounders in the last 3 years. Two more next year. That’s a good way to rebuild.

Now, the players they’ve selected may not be what they need in the end. But they’ve had a massive haul of picks in the first two rounds of multiple drafts. I think the future is bright!!!

And if those picks turn out to be the wrong picks, KD should be shown the door.  If they work out he should stay.  Same with trades/FA acquisitions.  At this point I think he's done a decent enough job to ensure the future is hopeful, but at some point they do need to post dividends.  Maybe not this year but we should start seeing net progress forward. soon as more and more prospects start to develop.  Not every draft pick is going to hit--not even all the high picks, but overall the path should be starting the climb upward.

At some point, the picks gotta start to pan out. I understand why he said the rebuild will take as long as it takes. That helps ensure his employment. I will say that he has 3 years left to prove something. If the team is still in the bottom 3rd of the league, his “best skater” approach has failed miserably. But until this evening, it hasn’t failed yet!!!

[OldTimeHawky]

Sept 19, 2024 22:51:41 GMT -6 BigT said:

Sept 19, 2024 15:55:42 GMT -6 LordKOTL said:

And if those picks turn out to be the wrong picks, KD should be shown the door.  If they work out he should stay.  Same with trades/FA acquisitions.  At this point I think he's done a decent enough job to ensure the future is hopeful, but at some point they do need to post dividends.  Maybe not this year but we should start seeing net progress forward. soon as more and more prospects start to develop.  Not every draft pick is going to hit--not even all the high picks, but overall the path should be starting the climb upward.

At some point, the picks gotta start to pan out. I understand why he said the rebuild will take as long as it takes. That helps ensure his employment. I will say that he has 3 years left to prove something. If the team is still in the bottom 3rd of the league, his “best skater” approach has failed miserably. But until this evening, it hasn’t failed yet!!!

This season is the biggest influx of picks by KD to turn pro, Nazar, Ludwinski, Hayes, and Savoie.

Bedard, Korchinski, and Marcel² last season.

Next year will probably be bigger with Moore, Rinzel, Greene, Lardis, and possibly Misiak, Vanacker, Spellacy, and maybe one or two more.

Then there's guys drafted before KD, that him and Maciver were a part of drafting, who could turn pro next season. Harding, Stjernborg, Basse, and Kelley. Not sure about Safonov.

That's a lot of picks that'll cover every position in Chicago and Rockford. KD will have some tough choices on who to keep and who to trade or walk away from.

I don't think Chicago will be a bottom 3 team for a long time.

[acesandeights]

Anyone know why Roman Kansterov isn't playing so far?

The KHL has already started their season and Kansterov hasn't been shown in any of their four lines under "Lineups", and I didn't see him as an injured player for any of their games.
Under "Squad" and then "KHL", he isn't shown. However, under "Total", he is listed and shown as having played in 0 games.
I'm not sure what this means.

I seem to remember this at the start of last season also but don't recall what the reason was.

So far without him Manitogorsk is 1-5, and in the cellar in their division. In their losses they struggled to score. 

[Hockey is great]

Sept 20, 2024 7:46:18 GMT -6 acesandeights said:

Anyone know why Roman Kansterov isn't playing so far?

The KHL has already started their season and Kansterov hasn't been shown in any of their four lines under "Lineups", and I didn't see him as an injured player for any of their games.
Under "Squad" and then "KHL", he isn't shown. However, under "Total", he is listed and shown as having played in 0 games.
I'm not sure what this means.

I seem to remember this at the start of last season also but don't recall what the reason was.

So far without him Manitogorsk is 1-5, and in the cellar in their division. In their losses they struggled to score. 

surgery

[BigT]

Sept 20, 2024 7:18:36 GMT -6 OldTimeHawky said:

Sept 19, 2024 22:51:41 GMT -6 BigT said:

At some point, the picks gotta start to pan out. I understand why he said the rebuild will take as long as it takes. That helps ensure his employment. I will say that he has 3 years left to prove something. If the team is still in the bottom 3rd of the league, his “best skater” approach has failed miserably. But until this evening, it hasn’t failed yet!!!

This season is the biggest influx of picks by KD to turn pro, Nazar, Ludwinski, Hayes, and Savoie.

Bedard, Korchinski, and Marcel² last season.

Next year will probably be bigger with Moore, Rinzel, Greene, Lardis, and possibly Misiak, Vanacker, Spellacy, and maybe one or two more.

Then there's guys drafted before KD, that him and Maciver were a part of drafting, who could turn pro next season. Harding, Stjernborg, Basse, and Kelley. Not sure about Safonov.

That's a lot of picks that'll cover every position in Chicago and Rockford. KD will have some tough choices on who to keep and who to trade or walk away from.

I don't think Chicago will be a bottom 3 team for a long time.

Just to be clear, I did say bottom 3rd of the league and not bottom 3. I still believe in 3 years time if the Hawks are still drafting top 10. Change is a must. Can’t let Bedard go that long without something to play for. Can’t be more meaningless games.

Personally, I don’t believe we’ll be having that conversation. The D should be very strong in a couple years, if not this year. The forwards I believe he’ll get a bunch outside the org in trades. Every team since the dawn of time has had maybe 10 drafted players on their team. Most have less. So there’s still 13 guys from outside the org that’ll be on this team at some point. And not the 1year deal guys here now.

I like the looks of this rebuild much better than say the wings. Or Buffalo. They let their team “die on vine” and didn’t have much of a plan except just get high picks. Changing a GM once a rebuild is started is crazy. Gotta give the guy 5 years at least. 2 years to tear down, 3-4 years of drafting, 2-3 years of development. Now a lot of those years overlap, it’s a 6-8 year process. We’re in year 3. So that’s why I say he has 3 more years to bare some fruit. I believe he will!!!

[ebonyraptor]

Sept 20, 2024 7:46:18 GMT -6 acesandeights said:

Anyone know why Roman Kansterov isn't playing so far?

The KHL has already started their season and Kansterov hasn't been shown in any of their four lines under "Lineups", and I didn't see him as an injured player for any of their games.
Under "Squad" and then "KHL", he isn't shown. However, under "Total", he is listed and shown as having played in 0 games.
I'm not sure what this means.

I seem to remember this at the start of last season also but don't recall what the reason was.

So far without him Manitogorsk is 1-5, and in the cellar in their division. In their losses they struggled to score. 

He had surgery after the season (shoulder I think). I think the timetable to return in next month. Interestingly, Magnito is also missing Danila Yurov the Wild 1st rounder from 2022, due to surgery, so they're missing 2 key top-6 players from their championship lineup. 

[acesandeights]

Sept 20, 2024 10:35:51 GMT -6 ebonyraptor said:

Sept 20, 2024 7:46:18 GMT -6 acesandeights said:

Anyone know why Roman Kansterov isn't playing so far?

The KHL has already started their season and Kansterov hasn't been shown in any of their four lines under "Lineups", and I didn't see him as an injured player for any of their games.
Under "Squad" and then "KHL", he isn't shown. However, under "Total", he is listed and shown as having played in 0 games.
I'm not sure what this means.

I seem to remember this at the start of last season also but don't recall what the reason was.

So far without him Manitogorsk is 1-5, and in the cellar in their division. In their losses they struggled to score. 

He had surgery after the season (shoulder I think). I think the timetable to return in next month. Interestingly, Magnito is also missing Danila Yurov the Wild 1st rounder from 2022, due to surgery, so they're missing 2 key top-6 players from their championship lineup. 

Thanks er and Hockey is great. When you mention Yurov also being out, both him and Kansterov being out has really stifled Manitogorsk's offense; in their five losses they were shutout twice and only scored two goals in each of the other three games. 

Their lone win was against Ivan Demidov's team. Demidov had a p. assist on a pp goal.