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Post by mvr on Jun 25, 2024 20:55:53 GMT -6
Bedard can shoot, but he is also an exceptional playmaker. Providing him with the option to pass to a lethal shooter might free him more.
My feeling is that the big need on line one is an upgrade on Foligno. There is a reason why the coach keeps adding the veteran to line one. Bedard needs a guy with muscle on his one side or the other.
Bedard is so talented. He does not really need another elite playmaker on his line. Kurashev is good enough. Eiserman would also be.
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Post by ebonyraptor on Jun 25, 2024 21:06:25 GMT -6
Since Bobby Mac's final ranking solidified Demidov as the BPA, albeit not a consensus - this has ended up being a choice for the Hawks between BPA and team need. KD has preached BPA - so we'll see. Thank goodness there's only a few days until the big reveal. Ten out of ten in the survey agree that Celebrini is the BPA.But only six out of ten say Demidov is the BPA at pick two. As you write above, this is not a consensus by any stretch. It is also a small sample size. My guess is that even within a single scouting staff, there is no consensus BPA (which makes the entire concept somewhat meaningless). The decision is not black or white. Depending on whom you trust most, the BPA could also be the one who fills a team need and provides the lesser risk (the highest floor guy). Did you really think that was necessary? I didn't think so. You have your mind made up against Demidov so that even when your own gold standard of scouting reports that twice as many NHL scouts think Demidov is better than Levshunov - you find reasons to disbelieve. Like I said earlier - thank goodness there's only a few days until this "moment" has passed.
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Post by mvr on Jun 25, 2024 21:36:00 GMT -6
Ten out of ten in the survey agree that Celebrini is the BPA.But only six out of ten say Demidov is the BPA at pick two. As you write above, this is not a consensus by any stretch. It is also a small sample size. My guess is that even within a single scouting staff, there is no consensus BPA (which makes the entire concept somewhat meaningless). The decision is not black or white. Depending on whom you trust most, the BPA could also be the one who fills a team need and provides the lesser risk (the highest floor guy). Did you really think that was necessary? I didn't think so. You have your mind made up against Demidov so that even when your own gold standard of scouting reports that twice as many NHL scouts think Demidov is better than Levshunov - you find reasons to disbelieve. Like I said earlier - thank goodness there's only a few days until this "moment" has passed. We can say six out of the ten scouts MacKenzie interviewed picked Demidov and three picked Levshunov. But this is all we know. It would be a leap of faith to project these numbers and imply this survey equates to "twice as many" overall. MacKenzie sampled a small group. We have no idea what the rest think. Let's not forget: he also quoted a Demidov supporter who emphasized how talent is but one factor of many in the decision-making about picks (which suggests much like I have been arguing --- i.e risk, floors vs ceilings, team positional needs, scarcity etc.) I look at the title of MacKenzie's article: "Many attractive and diverse options after Celebrini." If anything, the reporter is suggesting here the field at slot two remains wide open. Other "options" are worth considering. Obviously, Demidov is a talented kid. This survey confirms it. I am no longer concerned about his floor. If Davidson picks him, so be it. The opinion of six of ten NHL amateur scouts is not something you ignore.
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2024 Draft
Jun 25, 2024 21:42:47 GMT -6
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Post by vadarx on Jun 25, 2024 21:42:47 GMT -6
Demidov was also the only other player to appear in all 10 top 5's, besides Celebrini.
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2024 Draft
Jun 25, 2024 21:47:39 GMT -6
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Post by vadarx on Jun 25, 2024 21:47:39 GMT -6
Bedard can shoot, but he is also an exceptional playmaker. Providing him with the option to pass to a lethal shooter might free him more. My feeling is that the big need on line one is an upgrade on Foligno. There is a reason why the coach keeps adding the veteran to line one. Bedard needs a guy with muscle on his one side or the other. Bedard is so talented. He does not really need another elite playmaker on his line. Kurashev is good enough. Eiserman would also be. that's fair and if Eiserman is there @ 18, he could be a possibility, depending on who else is also available.
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Post by BigT on Jun 26, 2024 5:28:03 GMT -6
For anyone who cares. Craig Button, who’s an actual scout and worked for many teams including the Flames as their GM for a while will be on JayZs show today. You can even catch the podcast at a later time. CHGO Blackhawks.
It’ll be interesting to hear what he has to say. I’m not sure if he’s a Demi or a Levy at #2 guy!!!
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Post by acesandeights on Jun 26, 2024 6:59:40 GMT -6
For anyone who cares. Craig Button, who’s an actual scout and worked for many teams including the Flames as their GM for a while will be on JayZs show today. You can even catch the podcast at a later time. CHGO Blackhawks. It’ll be interesting to hear what he has to say. I’m not sure if he’s a Demi or a Levy at #2 guy!!! I saw a video hosted by Nathan Murdock where he gave what he called "Craig Buttons FINAL NHL Draft Rankings". The video was put out just yesterday. The full title for the video was "Craig Button's FINAL NHL Draft Rankings Got INSANE!" According to what he put up, Craig's list was dated June 19. Has Craig Button done another "Final Ranking" since the 19th? That was only 7 days ago. He had Demidov at #2. Levshunov was at #8. Yes, #8 is correct. Here is Craig Button's top 10 from June 19 that was on the show. This list is correct. 1. Celebrini 2. Demidov 3. Tij Iginla 4. Zev Buium 5. Cole Eiserman 6. Konsta Helenius 7. Zayne Parekh 8. Artyom Levshunov 9. Cayden Lindstrom 10. Sam Dickinson Some others: Silayev was 12; Catton was 14, Yakemchuk was 15, Jiricek was 19.
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Post by mvr on Jun 26, 2024 7:03:21 GMT -6
When I was a Teacher's Assistant at grad school, the professors had us marking on a Bell Curve.
It was always fairly easy to classify papers by separating them into piles. In a typical class, there might be five truly outstanding assignments which you would assign an A or A+ level grade. Another 10 might get A-. We would generally all agree which papers deserved to be in which piles.
But then attempting to rank them further in any specific order became highly subjective. Among the top five, there would always be disagreements. I might like one topic more than another. A student's writing style might be an issue. So too would the sources consulted.
For objective assessments such as multiple choice tests you can quantify precisely who did best on a certain test. But even then, the test designers must be so careful to eliminate cultural biases.
There is rarely a "BPA" in a given draft slotting. The idea is meaningless for most picks because there is no consensus. We know Celebrini will go first overall. He is the A+ prospect. But beyond him, anything can happen. Levshunov, Demidov, Silayev and a few others will go in the next grouping in some order. They are all A prospects.
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Post by bigbarn27 on Jun 26, 2024 7:06:28 GMT -6
For anyone who cares. Craig Button, who’s an actual scout and worked for many teams including the Flames as their GM for a while will be on JayZs show today. You can even catch the podcast at a later time. CHGO Blackhawks. It’ll be interesting to hear what he has to say. I’m not sure if he’s a Demi or a Levy at #2 guy!!! I saw a video hosted by Nathan Murdock where he gave what he called "Craig Buttons FINAL NHL Draft Rankings". The video was put out just yesterday. The full title for the video was "Craig Button's FINAL NHL Draft Rankings Got INSANE!" According to what he put up, Craig's list was dated June 19. Has Craig Button done another "Final Ranking" since the 19th? That was only 7 days ago. He had Demidov at #2. Levshunov was at #8. Yes, #8 is correct. Here is Craig Button's top 10 from June 19 that was on the show. This list is correct. 1. Celebrini 2. Demidov 3. Tij Iginla 4. Zev Buium 5. Cole Eiserman 6. Konsta Helenius 7. Zayne Parekh 8. Artyom Levshunov 9. Cayden Lindstrom 10. Sam Dickinson Some others: Silayev was 12; Catton was 14, Yakemchuk was 15, Jiricek was 19. So according to this if the hawks trade back they need to take Eiserman early good grief come on Friday night. Time to start talking about actual prospects
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Post by nighbor on Jun 26, 2024 10:21:53 GMT -6
For anyone who cares. Craig Button, who’s an actual scout and worked for many teams including the Flames as their GM for a while will be on JayZs show today. You can even catch the podcast at a later time. CHGO Blackhawks. It’ll be interesting to hear what he has to say. I’m not sure if he’s a Demi or a Levy at #2 guy!!! I saw a video hosted by Nathan Murdock where he gave what he called "Craig Buttons FINAL NHL Draft Rankings". The video was put out just yesterday. The full title for the video was "Craig Button's FINAL NHL Draft Rankings Got INSANE!" According to what he put up, Craig's list was dated June 19. Has Craig Button done another "Final Ranking" since the 19th? That was only 7 days ago. He had Demidov at #2. Levshunov was at #8. Yes, #8 is correct. Here is Craig Button's top 10 from June 19 that was on the show. This list is correct. 1. Celebrini 2. Demidov 3. Tij Iginla 4. Zev Buium 5. Cole Eiserman 6. Konsta Helenius 7. Zayne Parekh 8. Artyom Levshunov 9. Cayden Lindstrom 10. Sam Dickinson Some others: Silayev was 12; Catton was 14, Yakemchuk was 15, Jiricek was 19. I read an article which reported Levshunov was ranked 2nd best NA Skater by NHL Central Scouting. His NA hockey awards speak for themselves. The one question Lev has answered and Demidov has yet to answer is how does his game trasfer to the smaller NA rinks. I am leaning to Levshunov because he has already answered the above qustion and he has played the superior players.
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Post by LordKOTL on Jun 26, 2024 13:49:35 GMT -6
also, who here wants to bet me that the 'hawks take John Mustard in the second round? No offense to the fella. His name doesn’t sound like a popular name that would be called out a lot. Not sure I know much about the hockey with this fella. But I just cannot see John Fuckin Mustard winning the Art Ross!!! But I could see someone calling, "Colonel Mustard with the puck, in the back of the net" ... and round and round we go ... I'll just throw in 2 more cents - there are exceptions to most rules and as you have laid out a rule for team building I generally agree with - I will say that Demidov is an exceptional player (Levshunov is not) and therefore he meets the "exception to rule" criteria. BTW - not trying to pat ourselves on the back but I find it nice both of us can argue our positions with well thought out positions and without the rancor that so often devolves internet discussion. One more turn. I don't think there is universal consensus about either player. Some love Levshunov; others don't. Same with Demidov. We are not discussing a Connor Bedard here by any stretch. I do worry about the potential weak quality of this draft. When so many names appear at the top of different lists, it's more likely because none of the players is that good. I'm with those who would prefer Davidson trade down, though I recognize this scenario won't happen. As others have mentioned (and I think wisely), so many decisions are more about selling the product than building the roster. The general manager also has to consider what helps his job security most in the short term. His leash will at some point begin to get a little tighter. As you know, there are a small few of us who are just about done with him already. The bolded in my opinion folds into the italicized. If we, the fans, the air-conditioner ballast (myself included ), recognize that beyond Celebrini there's nothing superlative about any player, surely other teams' GM's and management recognize this as well, so unless there's a situation in which another team really wants another player, why would they give up assets for a player which could be had later? And even for those teams that do want a specific player, do they have what the 'hawks want? If not then I would think any good GM would not trade for trade's sake; it takes two to tango. To wit: if the 'habs want the #2 pick, who do they have that the 'hawks want? What are they willing to give up--and would it make sense for the 'hawks to jump on what they are offering? If They can't offer what the 'hawks want, and/or the 'hawks don't what what they are willing to send our way, it's not gonna happen. I agree with your premise: If there is a move the 'hawks should trade down. That they haven't/likley won't, to me it means: - No one is is willing to trade anything worthwhile for that pick.
- No one wants to trade for that pick--at all.
- KD is being too focused in on a very specific need, rather than looking at all of the holes in the lineup and looking to fill any one of them, not a specific one.
Of those only III smacks as a poor GM with tunnel vision.
Of course the longer the time goes the tighter the leash should become. It's also precedented of GMs having shorter tenure. I think KD gave a plan and sold it to Danny, who bought into it. I think his plan needs to have time to mature--realistically of course. We should start to see some gain in the standings even as early as this up[coming season--probably not into a playoff spot but at least to something out of the cellar. I think if we are still on the bottom by the close of this upcoming season KD should be really feeling the heat, because in my opinion he needs to be looking at help for Bedard, Vlassic, etc., as well as the kids being a year older and wiser.
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Post by squishy24 on Jun 26, 2024 22:22:32 GMT -6
Would you trade the #18 for the Rangers’ 30th and Kakko? Rumors are they want to move up and Kakko is available
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Post by galaxytrash on Jun 26, 2024 22:37:54 GMT -6
Would you trade the #18 for the Rangers’ 30th and Kakko? Rumors are they want to move up and Kakko is available that's a good question. i don't think i would.
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Post by ebonyraptor on Jun 27, 2024 0:46:53 GMT -6
Would you trade the #18 for the Rangers’ 30th and Kakko? Rumors are they want to move up and Kakko is available No. I haven't seen enough Ranger games to to have an opinion on whether he's just not a very good player or he hasn't been put in the best situation to be better than his stats show. I'm rather use it on a prospect in the draft or use it in a deal to get McGroarty.
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Post by vadarx on Jun 27, 2024 1:56:51 GMT -6
Would you trade the #18 for the Rangers’ 30th and Kakko? Rumors are they want to move up and Kakko is available nah.
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Post by BigT on Jun 27, 2024 5:43:02 GMT -6
Would you trade the #18 for the Rangers’ 30th and Kakko? Rumors are they want to move up and Kakko is available I would not. As of now. You have to leave out where he was drafted. Look at any other player in the same situation. He was a healthy scratch in the playoffs for Matt Rempe. I feel like right now, I wouldn’t even give up pick 30 for him. He’s worth a 2nd and maybe a 4th round pick for me. Those kids missed training camp and all that development due to Covid. They got drafted and plugged in with no evaluation and it was sink or swim. They still could be salvageable. Especially in Chicago where there’s no pressure to perform yet. That does help a lot of guys!!!
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Post by Nikos on Jun 27, 2024 5:43:45 GMT -6
Would you trade the #18 for the Rangers’ 30th and Kakko? Rumors are they want to move up and Kakko is available nah. We should look to move up in the 10 to 15 range, someone is going to slip there.
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Post by mvr on Jun 27, 2024 5:43:54 GMT -6
Would you trade the #18 for the Rangers’ 30th and Kakko? Rumors are they want to move up and Kakko is available After Celebrini goes first, there seems to be a strong consensus about a second a tier of about 4-5 players, and then a third of another 10. Most scouts seem to have the same names (but in different orders) about these three groupings. But then the draft really open up. It seems clear that clear that this is where either the talent drops or the risk factors really opens up. Assuming a few teams ahead of the Hawks reach before pick 18 (they always do), my guess is that the Hawks believe they should be able to get one of the players from this third tier. This was certainly was the rationale behind the trade with the Islanders. To my mind, trading down from pick 2 makes sense if you can stay in the top 5. Trading up from 18 also can make sense but only if you can get into the top 12 to be able to pick in the top half of that third tier. Trading down from pick 18, however, is not something I would do. It could mean the difference between getting an NHL player or not.
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Post by BigT on Jun 27, 2024 6:08:12 GMT -6
We should look to move up in the 10 to 15 range, someone is going to slip there. Have to think here. Is next years extra 1st rounder worth keeping? Or would it be beneficial to trade it with pick 18 to move up? Calgary or even Ottawa would probably do that. Calgary seems hellbent on retooling on the fly and adding as many 1st rounders as they can. Ottawa will be short a 1st rounder either next year or the year after due to being penalized. So, I feel either of those teams may accept the offer of 18 plus next years 1st rounder. I’m not sure this is a strong draft. But if 2 top ten picks are available. Swing for the fences with Demidov at #2. Then take one of the right dmen after that. Whomever is best available. Even if they’re not righties. Dickinson, Buium, Silayev, Parekh etc!!!
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Post by mvr on Jun 27, 2024 8:15:05 GMT -6
There is still close to $30 M of cap space for Davidson to dangle. There are also many teams needed to unload short term contracts.
Let's hope the general manager has the owner's blessing to add another two or three high picks today. Then he can peddle one or more to move up in the draft.
Spending the cap space this way is so much more effective in the long term than overpaying for UFAs and then getting stuck long term with bad contracts.
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Post by Nikos on Jun 27, 2024 8:19:27 GMT -6
There is still close to $30 M of cap space for Davidson to dangle. There are also many teams needed to unload short term contracts. Let's hope the general manager has the owner's blessing to add another two or three high picks today. Then he can peddle one or more to move up in the draft. Spending the cap space this way is so much more effective in the long term than overpaying for UFAs and then getting stuck long term with bad contracts. These future picks (2nd round) can also be used when the Hawks are looking to add at the deadline in a couple of years when hopeful the rebuild has turned the corner.
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Post by 2old4this on Jun 27, 2024 14:24:05 GMT -6
Would you trade the #18 for the Rangers’ 30th and Kakko? Rumors are they want to move up and Kakko is available Kakko has been on the market a long time. Nobody seems to want him. Doesn't seem like a good deal to me. Pass.
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Post by T-man2010 on Jun 27, 2024 14:26:49 GMT -6
I can hear the chants at the UC now
"KA KA' "KA KA"
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Post by ebonyraptor on Jun 27, 2024 14:43:13 GMT -6
I posted a couple days ago that I'm trying to like the idea of drafting Levshunov because it seems more probable than not he will be the guy KD selects - and I don't want to begin the "Levshunov era" with a feeling of disappointment. So, I've watched more podcasts where Levshunov is discussed and more "all shifts" and game tapes of him. My takeaways are that he is genuinely the "nicest guy ever" - people rave about what an outgoing great guy he is - everyone loves him and thinks his infectious personality will be great for a team's locker room.
But then I watch him play and - I wish it weren't so - but he is no where as good as his hype. While it is generally true that due to the longer development time required by most d-men to reach their potential - it is more difficult to project a 17/18 year old d-man's potential than it is to project a 17/18 yea old forward's potential. STILL - I watch Levshunov play and see him make more physical and mental errors than good plays. Unless he dramatically improves every aspect of his game (with the exception of skating) I can't see him ever becoming a top-pairing d-man, let alone the true #1 d-man that would be the only reason to select him over Demidov.
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2024 Draft
Jun 27, 2024 14:56:32 GMT -6
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Post by vadarx on Jun 27, 2024 14:56:32 GMT -6
I posted a couple days ago that I'm trying to like the idea of drafting Levshunov because it seems more probable than not he will be the guy KD selects - and I don't want to begin the "Levshunov era" with a feeling of disappointment. So, I've watched more podcasts where Levshunov is discussed and more "all shifts" and game tapes of him. My takeaways are that he is genuinely the "nicest guy ever" - people rave about what an outgoing great guy he is - everyone loves him and thinks his infectious personality will be great for a team's locker room. But then I watch him play and - I wish it weren't so - but he is no where as good as his hype. While it is generally true that due to the longer development time required by most d-men to reach their potential - it is more difficult to project a 17/18 year old d-man's potential than it is to project a 17/18 yea old forward's potential. STILL - I watch Levshunov play and see him make more physical and mental errors than good plays. Unless he dramatically improves every aspect of his game (with the exception of skating) I can't see him ever becoming a top-pairing d-man, let alone the true #1 d-man that would be the only reason to select him over Demidov. yeah, I've commented more than once about his personality and how it seems like that plays a part in his draft ranking. hopefully it isn't clouding any judgements of his play on the ice.
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Post by hawkinmontreal on Jun 27, 2024 15:06:02 GMT -6
Bedard can shoot, but he is also an exceptional playmaker. Providing him with the option to pass to a lethal shooter might free him more. My feeling is that the big need on line one is an upgrade on Foligno. There is a reason why the coach keeps adding the veteran to line one. Bedard needs a guy with muscle on his one side or the other. Bedard is so talented. He does not really need another elite playmaker on his line. Kurashev is good enough. Eiserman would also be. I disagree with that, Kurashev is a decent player, but far from an elite player. Bedard needs top end talent with him, as in Zachary Hyman playing with McDavid. As long as there is zero threat beyond Bedard, teams will apply all pressure on him and that will be all it takes to close that line down. Bedard lacks the size and strength currently to take over the game, like a McDavid, Mackinnon, Crosby. I agree that Foligno has no business being on that line, and I don’t believe Hall is the answer either. Yes, Bedard needs a player with muscle, but that player needs to have a skill set to give Connor the time and space he needs to play the role we all envision him playing. Next season, defenders will certainly being paying more attention to him, it will get that much harder for him to create space, especially if there is no one that is a viable threat playing alongside him.
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Post by 2old4this on Jun 27, 2024 15:22:02 GMT -6
still believe there is going to be size available @ 34. I'm taking the best center available @ 18 and I think that will be Hage or Luchanko. I believe that Hage is the reason they moved to 18 in the first place. Although I'm not too sure he'll be available by then.
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Post by steamer on Jun 27, 2024 15:25:51 GMT -6
Count me among the “no to Kakko group. I’m not opposed to using picks in trades but not a big believer in Kakko. Lafreniere would be a different story but doubt that has the slightest chance.
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Post by vadarx on Jun 27, 2024 16:18:14 GMT -6
still believe there is going to be size available @ 34. I'm taking the best center available @ 18 and I think that will be Hage or Luchanko. I believe that Hage is the reason they moved to 18 in the first place. Although I'm not too sure he'll be available by then. same. he and Luchanko are players I've liked for a bit and naturally both have now moved up boards and we will probably be lucky to get one of them @ 18.
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Post by bigbarn27 on Jun 27, 2024 16:32:01 GMT -6
I posted a couple days ago that I'm trying to like the idea of drafting Levshunov because it seems more probable than not he will be the guy KD selects - and I don't want to begin the "Levshunov era" with a feeling of disappointment. So, I've watched more podcasts where Levshunov is discussed and more "all shifts" and game tapes of him. My takeaways are that he is genuinely the "nicest guy ever" - people rave about what an outgoing great guy he is - everyone loves him and thinks his infectious personality will be great for a team's locker room. But then I watch him play and - I wish it weren't so - but he is no where as good as his hype. While it is generally true that due to the longer development time required by most d-men to reach their potential - it is more difficult to project a 17/18 year old d-man's potential than it is to project a 17/18 yea old forward's potential. STILL - I watch Levshunov play and see him make more physical and mental errors than good plays. Unless he dramatically improves every aspect of his game (with the exception of skating) I can't see him ever becoming a top-pairing d-man, let alone the true #1 d-man that would be the only reason to select him over Demidov. Sometimes we see what we want to see
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