30
|
|
Post by hsbob on Jun 21, 2022 7:35:50 GMT -6
Okay,he's just a guy with an elite shot........the Hawks won't see another like him for a decade........remind me when they do......I'll remind you until then. If he and Strome truly were "elite," the team would not have finished sixth from the bottom. But they did. And the Strome line (with Hall of Famer, Patrick Kane) had a negative +/-. You were referring to D-Cat when you admitted he had an elite shot,most think he has more than that but it's big of ya none the less. I told you to let me know when we find another elite shot........it was a decade between the last two. |
|
|
|
Post by hsbob on Jun 21, 2022 8:08:11 GMT -6
So Dylan Strome sees a career season in every respect,most of it as a 24yro after keeping his head through unfair,extended benching's and injuries and the team doesn't QO for 3.3M for one year? Is that what it would take to retain his rights? Who plays center if JT goes? Who DOES the team pay? Brent 'buyout' Connolly 3.5M.......but Strome gets the heave-ho.....WTF is going on here? Tyler Johnson doesn't bother you guys as much as keeping Strome for a year or two? If Strome isn't benched again to start this year,which I still believe was the final straw for his teammates with the record to show for it and if we see the Kane,Cat,Strome line all year........we can all agree those career years(assits for Kane) would have been even better and so would their trade value.....brilliant! I guess the young center isn't a player I'm supposed to like if you believe the hype because he's not a Yank,the last GM acquired him,he was traded for a decent NCAA kid and he doesn't play a rugged style......but I like him a lot and I seem to be in the minority.......not a strange place for me. Hockey's a game of perseverance the longer I watch it and we saw quite a few mid 20 year olds break through this year and Strome was one of em. Does he need to play with great wingers like Kane and Cat to produce? It certainly helps but at least you KNOW he does produce with talented linemates and don't kid yourselves.......their names don't have to be Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat.......but like I said.....it certainly helps. I am not worried about Connolly because he only has one year left and an outside chance of being picked off waivers or traded. Worse case senario we are stuck with him for one season. Due to injury we did not see what TJ could do and players have successfully comeback from back surgery. He did play quality minutes with Tampa with 50+% at the dot in the past. W.C.Senario two years and done. I doubt Strome's family and agent will have him sign anything short of 5-6 year deal. You know strike while the fire is hot or take the meney and run. I have never told anyone who to like based on nationality yank or not and I am too old to start now. I Connolly got 3.5M for two years plus and Johson's 31 with a reconstructed vertebrae who's given the team little for 5MX3 but of course you're not worried.......nobody seems to mind paying Johnson more than Strome for reasons beyond me. Both guys USED TO BE good and both helped teams win cups a few years back but both moves were mistakes and here's why......when guys approach 30 and lose their speed from many grueling PO miles and compounding injuries,they don't regain it. If you can get past the 8.5M,as most can,why not burry Seabs LTIR deal every year like TB is gonna do and ask for a good pick/prospect back for taking Johnson's cap hit? Same with Connolly,Fla needed that cap space desperately to acquire Bennett that year,make em pay if you help em and Borgstrom wasn't pay. I guess we'll see with Strome and your last sentence is correct,you've never told anyone anything of the kind. I was referring to myself and my supposed preferences. |
|
|
|
Post by mvr on Jun 21, 2022 8:36:10 GMT -6
I have never been a Gus promoter. Why make that accusation other than as yet another strawman? But if I was a contender and needed a number seven or eight guy at minimum salary, he'd be an option. Gus is not my type of player, but there are worse out there. He makes a minimum wage salary. You get what you pay for. Borgstrom = Give him another year and see what happens. there is no harm in it. He is here and signed for $1M. My hopes are not high for this player and never were. To suggest that I value this player would be another strawman. Nylander = I never supported that trade. Did not like Nylander (not my type of player), but also do not think the Joker is that big of a loss (given the surplus at the time on the right side). Have made that point here perhaps 20 times now. When you again imply something similar a week from now, I will again have to correct. As I have mentioned over and over again, I prefer Darryl Sutter type hockey - big physical players who play a grinding game at both ends. If I have a bias, it is the Bryan Bickell/Dustin Byfuglien types who tend to be undervalued for their actual contributions away from the scoresheet. None of the players you continuously link to me remotely represent my preferences whatsoever. But I believe you know that. Then a chance to clarify. Didn't you suggest Gus as merely "mis-slotted" in another post or am I thinking of someone else? I didn't say you were the President of either three's fan club but you have without a doubt been less critical of and more supportive of all three at times. You slyly offer support for all three in this very post....... Gus sucks HUGE and everybody knows it,including every GM but our last one............he heads back home last summer w/o uncle DUMBASS and a kid or two sees 30 more badly needed games each. Borgstrom was brought in because the last GM liked him in college.....I liked mescaline in college....LOL! I didn't like the trade from day one because I followed the team and was aware of what wat headed here. He saw 50gms for Fla @21 with 8/18 40%FO to show for it and just 4 the next year after Q took over,he was just okay in the A and back in Europe after that. He'll be 25 before the next camp stats,he got another chance with another NHL team last year and he slept walked through most of it.......by all means....another year of that. It's just 1M.......pay a guy like Vinny that 1M,who'll show kids what effort means. Pay a guy who just can't play at the NHL level anymore 3.5M for two years for this big floater when guys like Shaw and Bolland were slaughtered for making the same. I like Stillman but let's see if his rugged style is appreciated enough to get the games he needs,he was gettin' scratched late in the year. You don't think a 22yro D-man playing 21 top pair minutes a night for a failed project is that big of a loss? You tell us how much more important D-men are than our 24yro 40 goal score winger but Joker for NOlander is no big loss..........explain that or will this be another statement you shrink from? There are no attempts to "shrink" from anything here. What I have to do just about daily is correct your deliberate Strawmans..... You regularly set up loaded and inaccurate summaries of ideas in my name in an attempt to mock me. I will continue to correct these false portrayals, though it has become tiring. I do not understand the agenda here. Why not just stick to what is actually argued? I don't value Debrincat, Strome and the Joker in the same way as you do. So what? Yes, I did say Gus was "mis-slotted." He is at best a number seven defenceman. Often, he played in the top four. Montreal "slotted" him correctly, and they reached the finals using him as a spare part (which is where he should play considering his salary). Nobody ever said he is a star who needs to play more. Is this really debatable? Can this subject now be put to rest? I do not like Gus and never have. Regarding the Joker. No, I do not believe he is a "big loss." He is a mediocre defenceman playing on a mediocre team. Without question, Bowman blew it by using this asset to get Nylander. I would have looked for a different type of player when trading Jokiharju. Can this subject now be put to rest? I do not like Nylander and never have. |
|
|
|
Post by hsbob on Jun 21, 2022 9:33:50 GMT -6
Then a chance to clarify. Didn't you suggest Gus as merely "mis-slotted" in another post or am I thinking of someone else? I didn't say you were the President of either three's fan club but you have without a doubt been less critical of and more supportive of all three at times. You slyly offer support for all three in this very post....... Gus sucks HUGE and everybody knows it,including every GM but our last one............he heads back home last summer w/o uncle DUMBASS and a kid or two sees 30 more badly needed games each. Borgstrom was brought in because the last GM liked him in college.....I liked mescaline in college....LOL! I didn't like the trade from day one because I followed the team and was aware of what wat headed here. He saw 50gms for Fla @21 with 8/18 40%FO to show for it and just 4 the next year after Q took over,he was just okay in the A and back in Europe after that. He'll be 25 before the next camp stats,he got another chance with another NHL team last year and he slept walked through most of it.......by all means....another year of that. It's just 1M.......pay a guy like Vinny that 1M,who'll show kids what effort means. Pay a guy who just can't play at the NHL level anymore 3.5M for two years for this big floater when guys like Shaw and Bolland were slaughtered for making the same. I like Stillman but let's see if his rugged style is appreciated enough to get the games he needs,he was gettin' scratched late in the year. You don't think a 22yro D-man playing 21 top pair minutes a night for a failed project is that big of a loss? You tell us how much more important D-men are than our 24yro 40 goal score winger but Joker for NOlander is no big loss..........explain that or will this be another statement you shrink from? There is no attempts to "shrink" from anything here. What I have to do just about daily is correct your deliberate Strawmans..... You regularly set up loaded and inaccurate summaries of ideas in my name in an attempt to mock me. I will continue to correct these false portrayals, though it has become tiring. I do not understand the agenda here. Why not just stick to what is actually argued? I don't value Debrincat, Strome and the Joker in the same way as you do. So what? Yes, I did say Gus was "mis-slotted." He is at best a number seven defenceman. Often, he played in the top four. Montreal "slotted" him correctly, and they reached the finals using him as a spare part (which is where he should play considering his salary). Nobody ever said he is a star who needs to play more. Is this really debatable? Can this subject now be put to rest? I do not like Gus and never have. Regarding the Joker. No, I do not believe he is a "big loss." He is a mediocre defenceman playing on a mediocre team. Without question, Bowman blew it by using this asset to get Nylander. I would have looked for a different type of player when trading Jokiharju. Can this subject now be put to rest? I do not like Nylander and never have. Point out the post where I said you called Gus "a star player who needs to play more". This is a perfect example of the first bolded.....an "inaccurate summary".......Strawman. What I did say is you took a more favorable view of a few players that most disliked,as I do with Strome but look for ways to criticize players who actually play well and you have. I also readily admit MY support for Strome,I always have and always will. No one can support NOlander at this point but you continue to portray that trade as something it isn't. Henri Jokiharju turned 23 for days ago and is signed for 2.5M for two more while we pay Murphy and McCabe 4.4 and 4M and Buffalo's blueline is a lot less mediocre than ours!..... thehockeywriters.com/sabres-2021-22-player-report-card-jokiharju/The article said he "struggled" to stay in the lineup in 20-21......he had 69 starts. No such "struggles" last year. You preach the importance of D-Men over a great young wing but have no problem moving a good,young one in this instance. |
|
|
|
Post by mvr on Jun 21, 2022 10:16:57 GMT -6
There is no attempts to "shrink" from anything here. What I have to do just about daily is correct your deliberate Strawmans..... You regularly set up loaded and inaccurate summaries of ideas in my name in an attempt to mock me. I will continue to correct these false portrayals, though it has become tiring. I do not understand the agenda here. Why not just stick to what is actually argued? I don't value Debrincat, Strome and the Joker in the same way as you do. So what? Yes, I did say Gus was "mis-slotted." He is at best a number seven defenceman. Often, he played in the top four. Montreal "slotted" him correctly, and they reached the finals using him as a spare part (which is where he should play considering his salary). Nobody ever said he is a star who needs to play more. Is this really debatable? Can this subject now be put to rest? I do not like Gus and never have. Regarding the Joker. No, I do not believe he is a "big loss." He is a mediocre defenceman playing on a mediocre team. Without question, Bowman blew it by using this asset to get Nylander. I would have looked for a different type of player when trading Jokiharju. Can this subject now be put to rest? I do not like Nylander and never have. Point out the post where I said you called Gus "a star player who needs to play more". This is a perfect example of the first bolded.....an "inaccurate summary".......Strawman. What I did say is you took a more favorable view of a few players that most disliked,as I do with Strome but look for ways to criticize players who actually play well and you have. I also readily admit MY support for Strome,I always have and always will. No one can support NOlander at this point but you continue to portray that trade as something it isn't. Henri Jokiharju turned 23 for days ago and is signed for 2.5M for two more while we pay Murphy and McCabe 4.4 and 4M and Buffalo's blueline is a lot less mediocre than ours!..... thehockeywriters.com/sabres-2021-22-player-report-card-jokiharju/The article said he "struggled" to stay in the lineup in 20-21......he had 69 starts. No such "struggles" last year. You preach the importance of D-Men over a great young wing but have no problem moving a good,young one in this instance. The others also must be getting very tired of this - you misrepresenting my ideas - me attempting to correct your false summaries. I don't have any real interest in the Hawks adding players like Nylander, Gus, Borgstrom etc. and never have. I did not make the trades for Johnson or Connelly. I did not support the Nylander trade. Why bring these players into the discussion (in an accusatory way) repeatedly (and then accuse me of "shrinking" from your false narrative)? You know I was never a Stan Bowman fan. Why try to hang me for his decisions? These moves have nothing to do with the ongoing decisions about Debrincat, Strome, etc. Let's stick with discussing the topic at hand. |
|
|
|
Post by mvr on Jun 21, 2022 10:44:56 GMT -6
Hsbob: "Then a chance to clarify. Didn't you suggest Gus as merely "mis-slotted" in another post or am I thinking of someone else?
I didn't say you were the President of either three's fan club but you have without a doubt been less critical of and more supportive of all three at times. You slyly offer support for all three in this very post......."
My response - We must access all players by "value" based on the salary the team commits to them.
It is true - I have no problem spending minimum wage on a marginal player like Gus. This to my mind represents reasonable value for the player's contribution. Perhaps there are better options, but there are also worse ones.
Would I bring him back next year? No. The team has to make room for younger players.
On the other hand, I have a big problem spending $9 M or more long term on a scoring winger like Debrincat. To my mind, this is an excessive expenditure/commitment for a rebuilding team. I do not see the "value" there when assessed against other options. The limited cap space should be used for different purposes right now.
This is not the same thing as saying that Debrincat is not a good player. If the Hawks were competing for a cup next year and had the cap space, I would not hesitate to add Debrincat as a final piece.
|
|
|
|
Post by squishy24 on Jun 21, 2022 15:24:24 GMT -6
Hsbob: "Then a chance to clarify. Didn't you suggest Gus as merely "mis-slotted" in another post or am I thinking of someone else? I didn't say you were the President of either three's fan club but you have without a doubt been less critical of and more supportive of all three at times. You slyly offer support for all three in this very post......." My response - We must access all players by "value" based on the salary the team commits to them. It is true - I have no problem spending minimum wage on a marginal player like Gus. This to my mind represents reasonable value for the player's contribution. Perhaps there are better options, but there are also worse ones. Would I bring him back next year? No. The team has to make room for younger players. On the other hand, I have a big problem spending $9 M or more long term on a scoring winger like Debrincat. To my mind, this is an excessive expenditure/commitment for a rebuilding team. I do not see the "value" there when assessed against other options. The limited cap space should be used for different purposes right now. This is not the same thing as saying that Debrincat is not a good player. If the Hawks were competing for a cup next year and had the cap space, I would not hesitate to add Debrincat as a final piece. mvr, i dont mean to be picking on you (as i seem to just post by replying to your posts) but the bolded above, there is no limited cap space that should be used for different purposes right now.once the season ends with the expiring contract of TK and Dcat, the Hawks only have 45-50mil signed players and that includes ALL signed prospects. Granted, it doesnt have the new contract Dach, Kubalik, Strome, Mitchell, Beaudin (and others) that might re-sign. But i highly doubt there will be cap problems, even if TK is re-signed or Dcat gets 10m AAV. |
|
|
|
Post by mvr on Jun 21, 2022 15:47:54 GMT -6
Hsbob: "Then a chance to clarify. Didn't you suggest Gus as merely "mis-slotted" in another post or am I thinking of someone else? I didn't say you were the President of either three's fan club but you have without a doubt been less critical of and more supportive of all three at times. You slyly offer support for all three in this very post......." My response - We must access all players by "value" based on the salary the team commits to them. It is true - I have no problem spending minimum wage on a marginal player like Gus. This to my mind represents reasonable value for the player's contribution. Perhaps there are better options, but there are also worse ones. Would I bring him back next year? No. The team has to make room for younger players. On the other hand, I have a big problem spending $9 M or more long term on a scoring winger like Debrincat. To my mind, this is an excessive expenditure/commitment for a rebuilding team. I do not see the "value" there when assessed against other options. The limited cap space should be used for different purposes right now. This is not the same thing as saying that Debrincat is not a good player. If the Hawks were competing for a cup next year and had the cap space, I would not hesitate to add Debrincat as a final piece. mvr, i dont mean to be picking on you (as i seem to just post by replying to your posts) but the bolded above, there is no limited cap space that should be used for different purposes right now.once the season ends with the expiring contract of TK and Dcat, the Hawks only have 45-50mil signed players and that includes ALL signed prospects. Granted, it doesnt have the new contract Dach, Kubalik, Strome, Mitchell, Beaudin (and others) that might re-sign. But i highly doubt there will be cap problems, even if TK is re-signed or Dcat gets 10m AAV. I understand this position. But Debrincat is in line for a long term deal. Next year he is one year removed from UFA. He is a young marketable star. If you are his agent, what would you expect? To my mind, he is not signing for less than what he makes now, and he'll expect eight years. So in reality the team would be committing to the player for nine years at $9 M (and likely more). Jones is already getting $10.5 M for that stretch. My feeling (like Big T) is that the next core is not here yet. With any luck, there should be some real talent here in four or five years. Until then, I want roster flexibility with no expensive long term commitments (Brian Campbell) potentially blocking kids (Dustin Byfuglien and Andrew Ladd) from sticking around. Cap space can disappear very quickly. In the meantime, I would use that "limited cap space" to add short term contracts which can be recycled for picks and prospects at each trade deadline. Hockey is a young man's game. Many if not most players are well past their productive peak by age 30. There is no real secret here. The only way to succeed in this sport is with young homegrown talent acquired via the draft. More picks = more possible positive outcomes. How do you get more picks? By trading away players on the last year of their deals (MA Fleury, Robin Lehner etc). I would also take on short term bad contracts (Bickell) to add young talent or picks (Teravainen). |
|
|
|
Post by BigT on Jun 21, 2022 16:02:14 GMT -6
I agree that tough decisions always need to be made. The decision to go for it or to rebuild is a tough question. I started talking about a rebuild around 2017. I thought the run was over. I never thought I was that right. But with the last guy, any type of failure was possible.
Now. I think moving forward. If a player isn’t willing to take what is reasonably offered to them, trade them. Keep the core to 4 guys total. Trade off guys for more picks or younger players. Retool on the fly and take a year or two every 4 years. This way you can maximize your cores existence. I feel after the Hawks won in 13/15. They should have retooled. Traded off a lot of assets for more assets and picks. By 2018, they more than likely would be back in the saddle again.
I don’t like keeping too many around. Maybe for a few years then move on and get a newer blood. It’s a cap world and there’s no use in pretending you can keep 2/3 of your team. Don’t fall in love!!!
|
|
|
|
Post by squishy24 on Jun 21, 2022 16:02:15 GMT -6
mvr, i dont mean to be picking on you (as i seem to just post by replying to your posts) but the bolded above, there is no limited cap space that should be used for different purposes right now.once the season ends with the expiring contract of TK and Dcat, the Hawks only have 45-50mil signed players and that includes ALL signed prospects. Granted, it doesnt have the new contract Dach, Kubalik, Strome, Mitchell, Beaudin (and others) that might re-sign. But i highly doubt there will be cap problems, even if TK is re-signed or Dcat gets 10m AAV. I understand this position. But Debrincat is in line for a long term deal. Next year he is one year removed from UFA. He is a young marketable star. If you are his agent, what would you expect? To my mind, he is not signing for less than what he makes now, and he'll expect eight years. So in reality the team would be committing to the player for nine years at $9 M (and likely more). Jones is already getting $10.5 M for that stretch. My feeling (like Big T) is that the next core is not here yet. With any luck, there should be some real talent here in four or five years. Until then, I want roster flexibility with no expensive long term commitments (Brian Campbell) potentially blocking kids (Dustin Byfuglien and Andrew Ladd) from sticking around. Cap space can disappear very quickly. In the meantime, I would use that "limited cap space" to add short term contracts which can be recycled for picks and prospects at each trade deadline. Hockey is a young man's game. Many if not most players are well past their productive peak by age 30. There is no real secret here. The only way to succeed in this sport is with young homegrown talent acquired via the draft. More picks = more possible positive outcomes. How do you get more picks? By trading away players on the last year of their deals. i understand that trading Dcat or TK is to acquire picks and assets. thats not what im referring to. I just dont see how cap space is a problem, which seems to be one of the reason you use in favor of trading Dcat. There is no capspace problem, not for, i would bet another 7 yrs at least. By then, most big contracts now would be gone (except for Jones and Dcat if signed at a big contract). Unless of course the new cap guru/GM F it up |
|
|
|
Post by mvr on Jun 21, 2022 16:10:16 GMT -6
I think the cap might be problem in five years. But again, the value of having excess cap space is adding draft picks in cap dumps and in acquiring players in the last years of deals to trade at the deadline.
I want management to weaponize the cap space. For example, what would the Leafs give up to get rid of their backup goaltender Mrazek? Is Florida ready to pay someone to take Bobo? All the contenders are in similar situations.
Solid older UFAs (such as Janmark) will need homes next year and be willing to sign one year deals. Use the cap space to sign these players and trade them next deadline.
|
|
|
|
Post by LordKOTL on Jun 21, 2022 21:08:24 GMT -6
if you are advocating to include Strome in any trades, they'll have to re-sign him first or trade his rights before he becomes a RFA. being arbitration eligible, he probably costs us or another team at least as much as he made this past season (3 million). I don't see many teams wanting to pay him that much, tbh. he is most likely headed for free agency and we will get nada for him... You don't think 22/48 52%FO in 69 games as a 24yro center is worth 3.3M? What do you figure he's worth? He'll play next year as a 25yro center.....you don't think he had a breakthrough year? I think Strome has earned at least a QO in terms of raw play. Kid played like ass in 2021 and righted the ship in 2022--I give him props for that. He may not be a D stalwart but hell, he did what was asked of him on a shitty team. But on the flipside I think mvr is correct in that his value might be highest now, and I still think the 'hawks will not try to get better for next season given the amount of picks they have. I think the 'hawks might be looking to trade his rights if they can. But I also think that they don't try to keep him long term, and they try to get something for him rather than losing him to being an FA. In a vacuum though, 22G/48P/50+ at the dot without much D should be worth 3.3M for a year. It won't kill the 'hawks even in a tank year. It's those advocating for 9G/26P/sub 35 at the dot with decent D for 3M+ AAV over multiple seasons I have to wonder about. |
|
|
|
Post by LordKOTL on Jun 21, 2022 21:13:36 GMT -6
To qualify Strome, Davidson needs to offer a contract at $3 M plus. Is Strome worth that number? Probably yes. In arbitration, however, he likely gets much more considering his scoring numbers. Is that possibility worth the risk of qualifying him? I don't know. But I believe Hawk management is not interested in going down this road. The issue here is that Strome's numbers might be inflated given his linemates. Without Kane and Debrincat, will he still produce enough to justify the cap hit and the roster spot? There is a reason why more than one coach has benched him. He is an inconsistent and at time marginal defensive player who does not play a physical game and has trouble concentrating on the small details. Nevertheless, I believe he has value at the right cap hit in the right situation. My hope is that the player is traded this summer, though I do not know if any team is interested. It would frustrate - though not surprise me - to see the player walk as a UFA (similar to Suter and Kampf - both of whom were also good players). Given the 'hawks situation and what I know about QO's, if Strome is qualified it'll be for $3.3M for a single season. If he accepts that I'm cool with it because even if his numbers tank the situation will right itself. Ditto with arbitration or offer sheets, or trading his rights; the 'hawks could try to get something for him or choose to walk away. Short terms deals and cap flexibility are good. So I could see them qualifying him since it's not like we'd be stuck with him over multiple seasons. They still need to fill out a roster, though--especially if other players depart. |
|
|
|
Post by mvr on Jun 22, 2022 5:35:23 GMT -6
If Davidson can get Strome locked in at $3.3 M/one year, I think we would all be okay with that.
The fear is Player Elected Arbitration. Once the player decides to go that route, there is no backing out. My understanding is that a team can only walk away if the settlement is above a certain threshold ($4.5 M in 2020) and the player is more than year removed from UFA.
I believe with Strome's numbers, he gets $4.5-5.0 M easy in arbitration.
If the award is above the threshold, no problem - the Hawks simply walk away. But what if the award comes in just below? Then Strome becomes basically immovable.
We know the team has been trying to trade the player for more than a year at his existing contract and have found no suitable takers.
I believe once the Hawks qualify Strome, they are locked in to the process. The agent can then file for arbitration with or without the Hawks' consent.
|
|
|
|
Post by mvr on Jun 22, 2022 5:46:14 GMT -6
Pius Suter was in the exact same situation last year.
The Hawks likely offered him a deal before the qualifying offer date, and his agent balked and hinted that he would take them to arbitration.
Signing Suter would have made sense at $3 M. But if the number gets closer to $4 M or more, it just is not worth the risk......
|
|
|
|
Post by mvr on Jun 22, 2022 6:01:29 GMT -6
|
|
|
|
Post by BigT on Jun 22, 2022 6:52:00 GMT -6
If the Hawks go scorched earth like we believe they will. Paying Strome 5 million on a 3-4 year deal will not hurt. If they want 8 years. Or even 5. Let him walk!!!
|
|
|
|
Post by LordKOTL on Jun 22, 2022 7:59:43 GMT -6
If Davidson can get Strome locked in at $3.3 M/one year, I think we would all be okay with that. The fear is Player Elected Arbitration. Once the player decides to go that route, there is no backing out. My understanding is that a team can only walk away if the settlement is above a certain threshold ($4.5 M in 2020) and the player is more than year removed from UFA. I believe with Strome's numbers, he gets $4.5-5.0 M easy in arbitration. If the award is above the threshold, no problem - the Hawks simply walk away. But what if the award comes in just below? Then Strome becomes basically immovable. We know the team has been trying to trade the player for more than a year at his existing contract and have found no suitable takers. I believe once the Hawks qualify Strome, they are locked in to the process. The agent can then file for arbitration with or without the Hawks' consent. I may be wrong here, but according to CF: Arbitration Ruling:- Player & Club can settle on a deal at any point prior to the commencement of the hearing (Prior to the 2020 MOU, a settlement could be made at any point prior to the arbitration decision)
- Once the hearing has taken place, the Salary Arbitration decision must be issued by email within 48 hrs of the closing [CBA 12.9(n)(i)]
- Arbitration awards can only be 1 or 2 years in length [CBA 12.10(a)&(b)]
- The party (Player or Club) who did not elect for Arbitration decides on the awarded term [CBA 12.10(a)&(b)]
- Players who are in their final year Restricted Free Agency are only entitled to a 1 year term.
- Club cannot walk away from a Club elected Arbitration Settlement [CBA 12.10(e)]
- Player elected Arbitration Settlements of 1 year and greater than $4,538,958, Club can walk away from the awarded salary, making the player a UFA [CBA 12.10(a)]
- Player elected Arbitration Settlements of 2 years and greater than $4,538,958, Club can walk away from the second (2nd) year of the awarded salary, making the player a UFA at the end of year 1 [CBA 12.10(b)]
(I bolded the pertinent) Let's assume the 'hawks qualify Strome. He goes to player-elected Arbitration. He can get a max of 2 years per arbitration rules, however, I think that based on the fact he should be in his last year of RFA status (he is 25), and that the 'hawks would dictate term being they wouldn't initiate, they go for only 1 year. If they award him more than $4.538M he walks. If not? I think they can swallow that cap for a year and try to move him--even if it's $4.5M. I don't think Strome is good enough to stop the tank. He has decent numbers but if he was good enough on his own, we'd be re-singing him and not worrying about the center position moving forward. I'd be more worried if it was 2 years or more because cap flexibility should be paramount (and for weaponizing cap space), but we're something like 20M under the cap for next year right now as-is, we have 2 FWD slots (including the 13th), 3 D slots (including the 7th) and 2 goalies to fill, and I seriously doubt that the 'hawks are going to pay extra for performance. Taking on a short-term bad deal sure, but there are a lot of those out there where the $1.2M difference between Strome now and the max he could get without us walking away won't break the bank. Plus, I realized a potential other out. I believe the deadline for arbitration is July 17th, 2022. The draft is July 7th. I still think the 'hawks may qualify him and then try to flip him at the draft. |
|
|
|
Post by hsbob on Jun 22, 2022 8:29:55 GMT -6
Hawks may need to reach the cap floor. So qualifying Kubalik isn’t awful. This is where I’d take a different approach with Dach. I’d sign him to a 6 year deal at 5 million per. I’m sure he’d take it. And once the rebuild is close to done in 4-5 years. He’s either good enough to keep or he could be dealt. I don’t think it’s hard to trade a 24-26 year old guy at 5 million who has size and skill. I think that’s the best approach to take. Even if it was 5 years, I’d do it!!! You like him THAT much? |
|
|
|
Post by mvr on Jun 22, 2022 9:21:09 GMT -6
If Davidson can get Strome locked in at $3.3 M/one year, I think we would all be okay with that. The fear is Player Elected Arbitration. Once the player decides to go that route, there is no backing out. My understanding is that a team can only walk away if the settlement is above a certain threshold ($4.5 M in 2020) and the player is more than year removed from UFA. I believe with Strome's numbers, he gets $4.5-5.0 M easy in arbitration. If the award is above the threshold, no problem - the Hawks simply walk away. But what if the award comes in just below? Then Strome becomes basically immovable. We know the team has been trying to trade the player for more than a year at his existing contract and have found no suitable takers. I believe once the Hawks qualify Strome, they are locked in to the process. The agent can then file for arbitration with or without the Hawks' consent. I may be wrong here, but according to CF: Arbitration Ruling:- Player & Club can settle on a deal at any point prior to the commencement of the hearing (Prior to the 2020 MOU, a settlement could be made at any point prior to the arbitration decision)
- Once the hearing has taken place, the Salary Arbitration decision must be issued by email within 48 hrs of the closing [CBA 12.9(n)(i)]
- Arbitration awards can only be 1 or 2 years in length [CBA 12.10(a)&(b)]
- The party (Player or Club) who did not elect for Arbitration decides on the awarded term [CBA 12.10(a)&(b)]
- Players who are in their final year Restricted Free Agency are only entitled to a 1 year term.
- Club cannot walk away from a Club elected Arbitration Settlement [CBA 12.10(e)]
- Player elected Arbitration Settlements of 1 year and greater than $4,538,958, Club can walk away from the awarded salary, making the player a UFA [CBA 12.10(a)]
- Player elected Arbitration Settlements of 2 years and greater than $4,538,958, Club can walk away from the second (2nd) year of the awarded salary, making the player a UFA at the end of year 1 [CBA 12.10(b)]
(I bolded the pertinent) Let's assume the 'hawks qualify Strome. He goes to player-elected Arbitration. He can get a max of 2 years per arbitration rules, however, I think that based on the fact he should be in his last year of RFA status (he is 25), and that the 'hawks would dictate term being they wouldn't initiate, they go for only 1 year. If they award him more than $4.538M he walks. If not? I think they can swallow that cap for a year and try to move him--even if it's $4.5M. I don't think Strome is good enough to stop the tank. He has decent numbers but if he was good enough on his own, we'd be re-singing him and not worrying about the center position moving forward. I'd be more worried if it was 2 years or more because cap flexibility should be paramount (and for weaponizing cap space), but we're something like 20M under the cap for next year right now as-is, we have 2 FWD slots (including the 13th), 3 D slots (including the 7th) and 2 goalies to fill, and I seriously doubt that the 'hawks are going to pay extra for performance. Taking on a short-term bad deal sure, but there are a lot of those out there where the $1.2M difference between Strome now and the max he could get without us walking away won't break the bank. Plus, I realized a potential other out. I believe the deadline for arbitration is July 17th, 2022. The draft is July 7th. I still think the 'hawks may qualify him and then try to flip him at the draft. That's right. The issue is the likelihood that the arbitrator awards the contract close to that $4.5 M mark (which is likely higher now) but not above the point where the Hawks can walk away. I would be comfortable at $3.3 M for Strome But not much higher, given his inconsistency - especially when playing without Debrincat and Kane. If you qualify Strome, you have to anticipate paying him around $4.5 M or slightly more. This is what I was pointing out here. Are you willing to pay Strome that kind of salary next year, knowing that he likely has zero (or perhaps even negative) trade value at that price? |
|
|
|
Post by mvr on Jun 22, 2022 9:36:47 GMT -6
The decision about qualifying Strome really comes down to how management sees the short-term roster shaking out in the fall - Does the team sees a useful role for this player until trade deadline next year?
If they qualify Strome, he goes to arbitration, and the contract (if under the threshold) would be for one year only. Then the player becomes a UFA. Likely, they will have little to no interest in re-signing him.
The Hawks could try to move him out at trade deadline before he gets to UFA.
But what if Davidson does trade one or both of Debrincat and Kane this summer? How attractive would Strome be next spring with the arbitrator's awarded contract in this situation? Do the Hawks gamble that Strome plays an effective game without his linemates?
To my mind, Strome's trade value peaks right now. It won't improve.
|
|
|
|
Post by mvr on Jun 22, 2022 9:42:42 GMT -6
If the Hawks go scorched earth like we believe they will. Paying Strome 5 million on a 3-4 year deal will not hurt. If they want 8 years. Or even 5. Let him walk!!! Should the Hawks go scorched earth, my guess is that Strome resists signing a long term deal. He would prefer a one year deal (settled by the arbitrator) then UFA. That's certainly what I would advise him as his agent. |
|
|
|
Post by LordKOTL on Jun 22, 2022 9:42:58 GMT -6
I may be wrong here, but according to CF: Arbitration Ruling:- Player & Club can settle on a deal at any point prior to the commencement of the hearing (Prior to the 2020 MOU, a settlement could be made at any point prior to the arbitration decision)
- Once the hearing has taken place, the Salary Arbitration decision must be issued by email within 48 hrs of the closing [CBA 12.9(n)(i)]
- Arbitration awards can only be 1 or 2 years in length [CBA 12.10(a)&(b)]
- The party (Player or Club) who did not elect for Arbitration decides on the awarded term [CBA 12.10(a)&(b)]
- Players who are in their final year Restricted Free Agency are only entitled to a 1 year term.
- Club cannot walk away from a Club elected Arbitration Settlement [CBA 12.10(e)]
- Player elected Arbitration Settlements of 1 year and greater than $4,538,958, Club can walk away from the awarded salary, making the player a UFA [CBA 12.10(a)]
- Player elected Arbitration Settlements of 2 years and greater than $4,538,958, Club can walk away from the second (2nd) year of the awarded salary, making the player a UFA at the end of year 1 [CBA 12.10(b)]
(I bolded the pertinent) Let's assume the 'hawks qualify Strome. He goes to player-elected Arbitration. He can get a max of 2 years per arbitration rules, however, I think that based on the fact he should be in his last year of RFA status (he is 25), and that the 'hawks would dictate term being they wouldn't initiate, they go for only 1 year. If they award him more than $4.538M he walks. If not? I think they can swallow that cap for a year and try to move him--even if it's $4.5M. I don't think Strome is good enough to stop the tank. He has decent numbers but if he was good enough on his own, we'd be re-singing him and not worrying about the center position moving forward. I'd be more worried if it was 2 years or more because cap flexibility should be paramount (and for weaponizing cap space), but we're something like 20M under the cap for next year right now as-is, we have 2 FWD slots (including the 13th), 3 D slots (including the 7th) and 2 goalies to fill, and I seriously doubt that the 'hawks are going to pay extra for performance. Taking on a short-term bad deal sure, but there are a lot of those out there where the $1.2M difference between Strome now and the max he could get without us walking away won't break the bank. Plus, I realized a potential other out. I believe the deadline for arbitration is July 17th, 2022. The draft is July 7th. I still think the 'hawks may qualify him and then try to flip him at the draft. That's right. The issue is the likelihood that the arbitrator awards the contract close to that $4.5 M mark (which is likely higher now) but not above the point where the Hawks can walk away. I would be comfortable at $3.3 M for Strome But not much higher, given his inconsistency - especially when playing without Debrincat and Kane. If you qualify Strome, you have to anticipate paying him around $4.5 M or slightly more. This is what I was pointing out here. Are you willing to pay Strome that kind of salary next year, knowing that he likely has zero (or perhaps even negative) trade value at that price?Honestly, yes. Here's my logic on that: It is possible to try to get something for Strome--especially at the draft. I believe if we qualify him we can also try to trade his negotiation rights, so the move would be to qualify him with the intent that he be traded out at the draft. Assuming he's not, and he goes to arbitration: I highly doubt the contract will be more than 1 year--in that per the bolded above if the 1 year remaining RFA doesn't get him I believe the 'hawks will ask for the term to be no more than 1 year if it goes to arbitration. Thus we should be only on the hook for him for a single season. If his numbers do tank out it helps the 'hawks get higher picks in 2023, and after 2023 he becomes a UFA. The 'hawks aren't in any real cap trouble next year even if we do retain Toews, Kane, or Debrincat. So while I agree that he's a 3.3M player give-or-take a few hundred thousand, I do think that it helps the 'hawks rebuild in the long run to at least try to get something for him. If we outright jettison him we de facto get nothing. If we take the chance on trying to move him the worst that happens is we eat 1.2M more than what Strome made this season for 2023 and then likely lose him for nothing. If we were in de facto cap hell I would say cut and run, But if we have the chance to get even a mid-round pick for him at the draft or sometime during 2023, I think it's a low enough risk to the rebuild that you take it. Now, if it was 4.5M over multiple years? Walk. If we didn't have as much free cap next season even with Toews, Kane, and Debrincat? Walk. But I think if we qualify him there has to be at least one club out of 31 out there willing to take a chance on a center who scored 20 goals and worked on his game enough to become +50 at the dot to fork over something like a 3d round pick. And if not? Not our issue after 2023. |
|
|
|
Post by hsbob on Jun 22, 2022 9:43:59 GMT -6
You don't think 22/48 52%FO in 69 games as a 24yro center is worth 3.3M? What do you figure he's worth? He'll play next year as a 25yro center.....you don't think he had a breakthrough year? I think Strome has earned at least a QO in terms of raw play. Kid played like ass in 2021 and righted the ship in 2022--I give him props for that. He may not be a D stalwart but hell, he did what was asked of him on a shitty team. But on the flipside I think mvr is correct in that his value might be highest now, and I still think the 'hawks will not try to get better for next season given the amount of picks they have. I think the 'hawks might be looking to trade his rights if they can. But I also think that they don't try to keep him long term, and they try to get something for him rather than losing him to being an FA. In a vacuum though, 22G/48P/50+ at the dot without much D should be worth 3.3M for a year. It won't kill the 'hawks even in a tank year. It's those advocating for 9G/26P/sub 35 at the dot with decent D for 3M+ AAV over multiple seasons I have to wonder about. Dylan Strome was given two fair opportunities to regularly play with talented players here, '18-19' saw 17/51 in 58 games and '21-22 ' saw 22/46 in 69 games and an improved 52%+ at the dot,the two years in between saw injuries like a high ankle sprain and a concussion,long undeserved benchings and time with lesser player when Potter did play him. He still managed to get better at FO's every year through all of that! If 9/17 47% in a dinged-up,mis-used 40 game season is "playing like ass" and it is,what do we call 9/26 32.8% in 70 healthy games and plenty of opportunity? I trust your ability to come up with an equally colorful term.....LOL! The knock on Strome seems to be he needs to play with good players to produce but at least he's proven he can produce with good players,Kane's numbers improved big time last year when that line was put together half way too. The two years Strome did see regular time with talented linemates resulted in 127gms 39gls 97pts and his FO's are now well over 50%........this doesn't work here? |
|
|
|
Post by LordKOTL on Jun 22, 2022 9:52:55 GMT -6
I think Strome has earned at least a QO in terms of raw play. Kid played like ass in 2021 and righted the ship in 2022--I give him props for that. He may not be a D stalwart but hell, he did what was asked of him on a shitty team. But on the flipside I think mvr is correct in that his value might be highest now, and I still think the 'hawks will not try to get better for next season given the amount of picks they have. I think the 'hawks might be looking to trade his rights if they can. But I also think that they don't try to keep him long term, and they try to get something for him rather than losing him to being an FA. In a vacuum though, 22G/48P/50+ at the dot without much D should be worth 3.3M for a year. It won't kill the 'hawks even in a tank year. It's those advocating for 9G/26P/sub 35 at the dot with decent D for 3M+ AAV over multiple seasons I have to wonder about. Dylan Strome was given two fair opportunities to regularly play with talented players here, '18-19' saw 17/51 in 58 games and '21-22 ' saw 22/46 in 69 games and an improved 52%+ at the dot,the two years in between saw injuries like a high ankle sprain and a concussion,long undeserved benchings and tie with lesser player when Potter did play him. He still managed to get better at FO's every year through all of that! If 9/17 47% in a dinged-up,mis-used 40 game season is "playing like ass" and it is,what do we call 9/26 32.8% in 70 healthy games and plenty of opportunity? I trust your ability to come up with an equally colorful term.....LOL! The knock on Strome seems to be he needs to play with good players to produce but at least he's proven he can produce with good players,Kane's numbers improved big time last year when that line was put together half way too. The two years Strome did see regular time with talented linemates resulted in 127gms 39gls 97pts and his FO's are now well over 50%........this doesn't work here? The argument on Strome is a similar argument to a lot of our other FWDs, right player/wrong time. I do give him plenty of credit for getting better, but realistically, will he be here we we have the defensive pieces (FWD or backend) to compete again? I don't think so. That's not a knock on Strome. I think he played more than well enough to get a QO, and if the 'hawks don't use him as a piece to facilitate the rebuild, if he is arbitrated to something like $4.5M for a season, it won't 100% kill the team. Plus, it might be incentive to him to play as best as he could to maximize his UFA potential. On one side of the coin anyone not nailed down should be used as a tradeable asset to facilitate the rebuild, on the other side, we do need to fill out the lineup. In my estimation, paying Strome 3.3M to 4.5M next season is far from the worst move the 'hawks can make, but if he can bring in an asset that can facilitate the rebuild, why shouldn't we take it? |
|
|
|
Post by mvr on Jun 22, 2022 10:14:36 GMT -6
I understood your position, Lord. I do not want him to walk away for nothing either --- ie Kampf, Pius Suter.
My feeling is that the Hawks do not believe the player is in their long term plans. If so, the best course of action is to trade him right now even for scraps. His value will only decline after the arbitrator's decision locks in that one year contract. Potential trading partners would want the opportunity to negotiate with the agent and avoid the potential of UFA. You're not likely to get more for him at the deadline next year.
I am confident Hawks management is making phone calls right now. In hindsight, a better plan might have been to move the player at last season's deadline.
|
|
|
|
Post by hsbob on Jun 22, 2022 10:48:24 GMT -6
Let's not pretend Strome skated with Kane and Cat from the get go last year,after a STRONG camp by nearly all accounts,he found himself in the press box again until the team finally fired their woefully inept HC. That line was assembled around the half way point,Strome coulda easily potted 30 with 40+ helpers to go along with em if that line was together all year.......Kane and D-Cat woulda really lit it up too!
Most good,offensive players DO have to play with a guy who can finish their passes or set them up a few times a game and Strome's no different.
Why is it so hard to believe a young,large-framed,3rd overall,center who played almost all of last year as a 24yro had a breakthrough? It was a year that saw other mid 20yro forwards do the same,not all of em centers,winning 52% of their draws.
Can he do it again? He did it before.....as a 22yro. Can he do it w/o D-Cat.....yet to be proven,w/o Kane......ditto. Ya gotta admit,He and D-Cat even made a slug like Perlini look acceptable for a few months to the point of him brining a decent return.....he was shit before and since and Kane had nothing to do with that. Sikura did absolutely nothing playing with K&T who were having career years during that same time frame.......who made who better that year?
I said many times,sittin' or demoting a good young player for a game or two occasionally to get a point across is ANY HC's prerogative(how has this never been done with Dach?) but refusing to play Strome for long stretches in favor of MUCH lesser players was stubbornly unfair.......the player PROVED this again this year when given a chance,just like he did two years ago.
What if this young center was coached up instead of kicked around? What do four straight years of playing regularly with D-Cat and ANY other NHL level winger look like? IMO....all four years could easily look just like the two they did play together!
I don't know how to look up stats at a certain point of the season but it's easy to forget Kane's numbers early on,what'd he have....a F'n handfull of goals when that line was put together? Assists weren't much better but that's also easy to forget when he ended up tied for a career best 66.
Strome's breakthrough season is obviously much better if he's not benched to start the year and plays the entire season with at least D-Cat and why not Kane too......why wouldn't the Org want to pump up the numbers of all three last year for trade value if nothing else?
|
|
|
|
Post by LordKOTL on Jun 22, 2022 10:48:25 GMT -6
I understood your position, Lord. I do not want him to walk away for nothing either --- ie Kampf, Pius Suter. My feeling is that the Hawks do not believe the player is in their long term plans. If so, the best course of action is to trade him right now even for scraps. His value will only decline after the arbitrator's decision locks in that one year contract. Potential trading partners would want the opportunity to negotiate with the agent and avoid the potential of UFA. You're not likely to get more for him at the deadline next year. I am confident Hawks management is making phone calls right now. In hindsight, a better plan might have been to move the player at last season's deadline. I don't disagree, but I wonder if there was something that prevented a reasonable move for Strome. Who knows. I'm sure Davidson is on the phone nonstop for everyone at this point as well  |
|
|
|
Post by hsbob on Jun 22, 2022 10:56:44 GMT -6
I understood your position, Lord. I do not want him to walk away for nothing either --- ie Kampf, Pius Suter. My feeling is that the Hawks do not believe the player is in their long term plans. If so, the best course of action is to trade him right now even for scraps. His value will only decline after the arbitrator's decision locks in that one year contract. Potential trading partners would want the opportunity to negotiate with the agent and avoid the potential of UFA. You're not likely to get more for him at the deadline next year. I am confident Hawks management is making phone calls right now. In hindsight, a better plan might have been to move the player at last season's deadline. I don't disagree, but I wonder if there was something that prevented a reasonable move for Strome. Who knows. I'm sure Davidson is on the phone nonstop for everyone at this point as well  Do you think a HC who's benching him in favor of guys who didn't even belong in the league and are now out of it might have hurt his value? |
|
|
|
Post by LordKOTL on Jun 22, 2022 10:57:21 GMT -6
Let's not pretend Strome skated with Kane and Cat from the get go last year,after a STRONG camp by nearly all accounts,he found himself in the press box again until the team finally fired their woefully inept HC. That line was assembled around the half way point,Strome coulda easily potted 30 with 40+ helpers to go along with em if that line was together all year.......Kane and D-Cat woulda really lit it up too! Most good,offensive players DO have to play with a guy who can finish their passes or set them up a few times a game and Strome's no different. Why is it so hard to believe a young,large-framed,3rd overall,center who played almost all of last year as a 24yro had a breakthrough? It was a year that saw other mid 20yro forwards do the same,not all of em centers,winning 52% of their draws. Can he do it again? He did it before.....as a 22yro. Can he do it w/o D-Cat.....yet to be proven,w/o Kane......ditto. Ya gotta admit,He and D-Cat even made a slug like Perlini look acceptable for a few months to the point of him brining a decent return.....he was shit before and since and Kane had nothing to do with that. Sikura did absolutely nothing playing with K&T who were having career years during that same time frame.......who made who better that year? I said many times,sittin' or demoting a good young player for a game or two occasionally to get a point across is ANY HC's prerogative(how has this never been done with Dach?) but refusing to play Strome for long stretches in favor of MUCH lesser players was stubbornly unfair.......the played PROVED this when given a chance year just like he did two years ago. What if this young center was coached up instead of kicked around? What do four straight years of playing regularly with D-Cat and ANY other NHL level winger look like? IMO....all four years could easily look just like the two they did play together! I don't know how to look up stats at a certain point of the season but it's easy to forget Kane's numbers early on,what'd he have....a F'n handfull of goals when that line was put together? Assists weren't much better but that's also easy to forget when he ended up tied for a career best 66. Strome's breakthrough season is obviously much better if he's not benched to start the year and plays the entire season with at least D-Cat and why not Kane too......why wouldn't the Org want to pump up the numbers of all three last year for trade value if nothing else? I don't...and I agree with your premise with Dach. I think Strome did incredibly well this season but if I hold to my 7-10 year timeline, Strome will be 32 when the 'hawks are ready next. I get that Colliton and Stan screwed the team 8 ways from Sunday and Strome was one of a few that got the shaft for it, but I also think that if the 'hawks are going for fire sale, the best thing for Strome's career might be to get the hell out of here--especially if he goes to a team which will utilize him right. This goes doubly if Debrincat and Kane leave. But that being said if he's around next season I won't complain--not unless he's signed to an albatross deal, but thankfully Stan is no longer the GM  |
|
