Realistic Plans and Expectations - A Couple Years Out

[ebonyraptor]

The end of the 2023/24 season only a few games away and it's looking more and more likely the 2024/25 season will be more of another small step in the rebuild process than a giant leap. My intention here is not to be critical as I believe the rebuild is on the right path even if the progress is slower than hoped for. Rather, my intention is to recalibrate the timeline of the rebuild. What we expect the lineup to look like heading into the 2025/26 season and where on the rebuild timeline will we be at that time - a year away? 2 years away? 5 years away? Will we have the lineup constructed well enough to be Cup contenders in 2026/27 or could it take as long as until 2029/30 or will this rebuild plan be unsuccessful entirely?

Obviously there are variables we can't know at this time but there are also things we can know and some reasonable assumptions we can make - starting with the most obvious and certain - who will still be under contract heading into the 2025/26 season:

Forwards Foligno, Dickenson and Bedard, and D-men Jones, Murphy and Korchinski, and Goalie Mrazek. A long way away from a Cup contending lineup.

I think it's reasonable to assume none of the UFA's will be resigned - so all of the following will be gone by the 2025/26 season: T. Johnson, Hall, Donato, Athanasiou, Blackwell, Tinordi, Megna and Zaitsev.

Of the RFA's - I think we can assume the following are extended: Reichel, Kurashev, Slaggert, Vlassic and Kaiser. Soderblom may be extended depending how he does next season and whether or not Commesso is ready.

So that's it - of the players who have played games with the Hawks this season and who project to be pieces of the rebuild heading into Year-4 of the rebuild in 2025/26 - (6) forwards, (5) d-men and 1 or 2 goalies.

There will be some prospects that make the team but which ones?  Hard to tell from here. There may be some free agents signed but there's no way to know who and when.

So - is the rebuild on track and is the timeline realistic or does something else need to be done? What are your expectation?

[hawkfaninpdx]

Apr 8, 2024 19:30:34 GMT -6 ebonyraptor said:

The end of the 2023/24 season only a few games away and it's looking more and more likely the 2024/25 season will be more of another small step in the rebuild process than a giant leap. My intention here is not to be critical as I believe the rebuild is on the right path even if the progress is slower than hoped for. Rather, my intention is to recalibrate the timeline of the rebuild. What we expect the lineup to look like heading into the 2025/26 season and where on the rebuild timeline will we be at that time - a year away? 2 years away? 5 years away? Will we have the lineup constructed well enough to be Cup contenders in 2026/27 or could it take as long as until 2029/30 or will this rebuild plan be unsuccessful entirely?

Obviously there are variables we can't know at this time but there are also things we can know and some reasonable assumptions we can make - starting with the most obvious and certain - who will still be under contract heading into the 2025/26 season:

Forwards Foligno, Dickenson and Bedard, and D-men Jones, Murphy and Korchinski, and Goalie Mrazek. A long way away from a Cup contending lineup.

I think it's reasonable to assume none of the UFA's will be resigned - so all of the following will be gone by the 2025/26 season: T. Johnson, Hall, Donato, Athanasiou, Blackwell, Tinordi, Megna and Zaitsev.

Of the RFA's - I think we can assume the following are extended: Reichel, Kurashev, Slaggert, Vlassic and Kaiser. Soderblom may be extended depending how he does next season and whether or not Commesso is ready.

So that's it - of the players who have played games with the Hawks this season and who project to be pieces of the rebuild heading into Year-4 of the rebuild in 2025/26 - (6) forwards, (5) d-men and 1 or 2 goalies.

There will be some prospects that make the team but which ones?  Hard to tell from here. There may be some free agents signed but there's no way to know who and when.

So - is the rebuild on track and is the timeline realistic or does something else need to be done? What are your expectation?

Both Hall and Donato are still signed through 24-25; and so is Kurashev. Donato would make a fine 4th liner. I assume that Entwistle, Reese and Tyler Johnson, and Anderson are gone; same with Megna, Tinordi, and Zaitsev. Myself, I would resign Blackwell. The big question is what to do with Raddysh. I assume though that both he and Reichel will be given another chance. And I sure hope that Hawks will sign a couple of top six free agents. Otherwise, we're facing another dismal season. 

I am really concerned at this point that this team will be bottom feeders again. There's nothing that I see that points in a good direction. Bedard is a good player, but it's still too early to discern that he's a "generational talent" in the NHL. 

[OldTimeHawky]

Apr 8, 2024 21:07:44 GMT -6 hawkfaninpdx said:

Apr 8, 2024 19:30:34 GMT -6 ebonyraptor said:

The end of the 2023/24 season only a few games away and it's looking more and more likely the 2024/25 season will be more of another small step in the rebuild process than a giant leap. My intention here is not to be critical as I believe the rebuild is on the right path even if the progress is slower than hoped for. Rather, my intention is to recalibrate the timeline of the rebuild. What we expect the lineup to look like heading into the 2025/26 season and where on the rebuild timeline will we be at that time - a year away? 2 years away? 5 years away? Will we have the lineup constructed well enough to be Cup contenders in 2026/27 or could it take as long as until 2029/30 or will this rebuild plan be unsuccessful entirely?

Obviously there are variables we can't know at this time but there are also things we can know and some reasonable assumptions we can make - starting with the most obvious and certain - who will still be under contract heading into the 2025/26 season:

Forwards Foligno, Dickenson and Bedard, and D-men Jones, Murphy and Korchinski, and Goalie Mrazek. A long way away from a Cup contending lineup.

I think it's reasonable to assume none of the UFA's will be resigned - so all of the following will be gone by the 2025/26 season: T. Johnson, Hall, Donato, Athanasiou, Blackwell, Tinordi, Megna and Zaitsev.

Of the RFA's - I think we can assume the following are extended: Reichel, Kurashev, Slaggert, Vlassic and Kaiser. Soderblom may be extended depending how he does next season and whether or not Commesso is ready.

So that's it - of the players who have played games with the Hawks this season and who project to be pieces of the rebuild heading into Year-4 of the rebuild in 2025/26 - (6) forwards, (5) d-men and 1 or 2 goalies.

There will be some prospects that make the team but which ones?  Hard to tell from here. There may be some free agents signed but there's no way to know who and when.

So - is the rebuild on track and is the timeline realistic or does something else need to be done? What are your expectation?

Both Hall and Donato are still signed through 24-25; and so is Kurashev. Donato would make a fine 4th liner. I assume that Entwistle, Reese and Tyler Johnson, and Anderson are gone; same with Megna, Tinordi, and Zaitsev. Myself, I would resign Blackwell. The big question is what to do with Raddysh. I assume though that both he and Reichel will be given another chance. And I sure hope that Hawks will sign a couple of top six free agents. Otherwise, we're facing another dismal season. 

I am really concerned at this point that this team will be bottom feeders again. There's nothing that I see that points in a good direction. Bedard is a good player, but it's still too early to discern that he's a "generational talent" in the NHL. 

Not sure if Bedards a generational talent? That should be in purple, he's been training with NHLers since he was 12, first player with exceptional status in the WHL, holds the record for points by a Canadian at the World Juniors, and he's almost a point per game as an 18yr old on a really bad team.

[hawkfaninpdx]

Apr 8, 2024 21:31:22 GMT -6 OldTimeHawky said:

Apr 8, 2024 21:07:44 GMT -6 hawkfaninpdx said:

Both Hall and Donato are still signed through 24-25; and so is Kurashev. Donato would make a fine 4th liner. I assume that Entwistle, Reese and Tyler Johnson, and Anderson are gone; same with Megna, Tinordi, and Zaitsev. Myself, I would resign Blackwell. The big question is what to do with Raddysh. I assume though that both he and Reichel will be given another chance. And I sure hope that Hawks will sign a couple of top six free agents. Otherwise, we're facing another dismal season. 

I am really concerned at this point that this team will be bottom feeders again. There's nothing that I see that points in a good direction. Bedard is a good player, but it's still too early to discern that he's a "generational talent" in the NHL. 

Not sure if Bedards a generational talent? That should be in purple, he's been training with NHLers since he was 12, first player with exceptional status in the WHL, holds the record for points by a Canadian at the World Juniors, and he's almost a point per game as an 18yr old on a really bad team.

I am just letting my inner pessimist out. He needs some quality teammates. He tries to do way too much on his own and makes quite a few mistakes. Obviously he has flashes of brilliance. It also seems like the long season has worn him out.

It is absolutely imperative that the Hawks do not have the same type of season next year.

[ebonyraptor]

Apr 8, 2024 21:07:44 GMT -6 hawkfaninpdx said:

Apr 8, 2024 19:30:34 GMT -6 ebonyraptor said:

The end of the 2023/24 season only a few games away and it's looking more and more likely the 2024/25 season will be more of another small step in the rebuild process than a giant leap. My intention here is not to be critical as I believe the rebuild is on the right path even if the progress is slower than hoped for. Rather, my intention is to recalibrate the timeline of the rebuild. What we expect the lineup to look like heading into the 2025/26 season and where on the rebuild timeline will we be at that time - a year away? 2 years away? 5 years away? Will we have the lineup constructed well enough to be Cup contenders in 2026/27 or could it take as long as until 2029/30 or will this rebuild plan be unsuccessful entirely?

Obviously there are variables we can't know at this time but there are also things we can know and some reasonable assumptions we can make - starting with the most obvious and certain - who will still be under contract heading into the 2025/26 season:

Forwards Foligno, Dickenson and Bedard, and D-men Jones, Murphy and Korchinski, and Goalie Mrazek. A long way away from a Cup contending lineup.

I think it's reasonable to assume none of the UFA's will be resigned - so all of the following will be gone by the 2025/26 season: T. Johnson, Hall, Donato, Athanasiou, Blackwell, Tinordi, Megna and Zaitsev.

Of the RFA's - I think we can assume the following are extended: Reichel, Kurashev, Slaggert, Vlassic and Kaiser. Soderblom may be extended depending how he does next season and whether or not Commesso is ready.

So that's it - of the players who have played games with the Hawks this season and who project to be pieces of the rebuild heading into Year-4 of the rebuild in 2025/26 - (6) forwards, (5) d-men and 1 or 2 goalies.

There will be some prospects that make the team but which ones?  Hard to tell from here. There may be some free agents signed but there's no way to know who and when.

So - is the rebuild on track and is the timeline realistic or does something else need to be done? What are your expectation?

Both Hall and Donato are still signed through 24-25; and so is Kurashev. Donato would make a fine 4th liner. I assume that Entwistle, Reese and Tyler Johnson, and Anderson are gone; same with Megna, Tinordi, and Zaitsev. Myself, I would resign Blackwell. The big question is what to do with Raddysh. I assume though that both he and Reichel will be given another chance. And I sure hope that Hawks will sign a couple of top six free agents. Otherwise, we're facing another dismal season. 

I am really concerned at this point that this team will be bottom feeders again. There's nothing that I see that points in a good direction. Bedard is a good player, but it's still too early to discern that he's a "generational talent" in the NHL. 

Right, but they aren't under contract for the 2025/26 season which is the season this thread is focused on. I'm theorizing next season - 2024/25 - won't be appreciably different than this season in terms of progress in the rebuild - and therefore my focus is on the 2025/26 season and what we should expect then. 

I'm not saying Donato won't be here - I'm assuming he won't because by the 2025/26 season there should be some prospects that fill in the role that Donato fills this season and will fill next season.

[2old4this]

I'd like to see us sign a couple of forward studs to play with Bedard. Draft, free agency, or trade.

[BigT]

I’m gonna go out on a limb here. I’ve stated this exact scenario before and I’m gonna stick to it.

Due to the veteran presence on this team and the kids are a year older and better. I believe the Hawks push for a playoff spot next year. Maybe even get in?

Now, where it gets shitty, is when the Hawks ditch most of those veterans and add in kids. The team will definitely take a step back. NJ is seeing that with adding in Holtz, Seigenthaler, L Hughes etc. it sucks. But that’s the way she goes!!!

[BigT]

Look at the winged wheel. They supposedly have a few more good kids to get on the lineup. Let’s say they make it this year. But add in a few kids next year. Then they miss. Is it a success?

This is the problem with rebuilds. Is it better to stay the course of tanking or add in talent around? I think both ways have their advantages. However there will be ebbs and flows no matter what you choose!!!

[hsbob]

Apr 9, 2024 5:34:32 GMT -6 BigT said:

I’m gonna go out on a limb here. I’ve stated this exact scenario before and I’m gonna stick to it.

Due to the veteran presence on this team and the kids are a year older and better. I believe the Hawks push for a playoff spot next year. Maybe even get in?

Now, where it gets shitty, is when the Hawks ditch most of those veterans and add in kids. The team will definitely take a step back. NJ is seeing that with adding in Holtz, Seigenthaler, L Hughes etc. it sucks. But that’s the way she goes!!!

A playoff spot next year would require a 19-20 win/40+ point improvement over this year's record...... .500 hockey would be a more reasonable achievement.

Hall turns 33 in Nov,he had 16gls on a great team last year and missed most of this one with a serious knee injury,I'm not sure how much he can be relied on going forward.
Not sure what we can rely on from AA either and all the old D-men(Tenordi,Zaitsev and Smegma) should be gone along with Tyler Johnson. That pretty much leaves Foligno,Dickenson and Murphy as veteran presence next year. 

I like Foligno a lot,and his extension but he turns 37 in October and his resurgence this year was his best season since '16-17'. How long can we depend on him to play at that level and supply the physicality he does at his age?

The kids will continue to improve but IMO,if this team makes the PO's next year,it would take a major addition or two this summer. 

[Granada]

Apr 8, 2024 19:30:34 GMT -6 ebonyraptor said:

The end of the 2023/24 season only a few games away and it's looking more and more likely the 2024/25 season will be more of another small step in the rebuild process than a giant leap. My intention here is not to be critical as I believe the rebuild is on the right path even if the progress is slower than hoped for. Rather, my intention is to recalibrate the timeline of the rebuild. What we expect the lineup to look like heading into the 2025/26 season and where on the rebuild timeline will we be at that time - a year away? 2 years away? 5 years away? Will we have the lineup constructed well enough to be Cup contenders in 2026/27 or could it take as long as until 2029/30 or will this rebuild plan be unsuccessful entirely?

Obviously there are variables we can't know at this time but there are also things we can know and some reasonable assumptions we can make - starting with the most obvious and certain - who will still be under contract heading into the 2025/26 season:

Forwards Foligno, Dickenson and Bedard, and D-men Jones, Murphy and Korchinski, and Goalie Mrazek. A long way away from a Cup contending lineup.

I think it's reasonable to assume none of the UFA's will be resigned - so all of the following will be gone by the 2025/26 season: T. Johnson, Hall, Donato, Athanasiou, Blackwell, Tinordi, Megna and Zaitsev.

Of the RFA's - I think we can assume the following are extended: Reichel, Kurashev, Slaggert, Vlassic and Kaiser. Soderblom may be extended depending how he does next season and whether or not Commesso is ready.

So that's it - of the players who have played games with the Hawks this season and who project to be pieces of the rebuild heading into Year-4 of the rebuild in 2025/26 - (6) forwards, (5) d-men and 1 or 2 goalies.

There will be some prospects that make the team but which ones?  Hard to tell from here. There may be some free agents signed but there's no way to know who and when.

So - is the rebuild on track and is the timeline realistic or does something else need to be done? What are your expectation?

This is a good but tough question because it depends on whether or not you believe we're in a "rebuild" or if you believe we're in "a rebuild of a rebuild." I believe the latter.

Dach, Boqvist, Reichel, Mitchell, Lankinen, Entwistle, Bodin, Jokiharju -- really, none of these guys ever fleshed out and/or are jettisoned. And these were supposed to be the next wave. Kurashev is really the only player that has found his game and that is a top-six option going forward. Entwistle might be a 4th liner and Reichel is still a question mark.

Now, in addition to Bedard of course, you have Vlasic, Korchinski, Blackwell, Soderblom, Kaiser, Dickenson, Slaggert. To me, this is the "rebuild of a rebuild." It sucks because, imagine if Dach panned out. Or Reichel. You have guys like Colton Dach and Nazar, etc. who are supposedly top-six options for the future, but they'll obviously need more seasoning even before they see time in the NHL, so who in the current crop has top-six potential, now (i.e. 1-2 years).

Honestly, I don't think Davidson can afford to have his rebuild take longer than 3 years. He'll have to bring in some bonafide talent, be it free agency, etc. A rebuild of a rebuild is a shitty and a bit of an unfair position for any successor to be in, but even so, he can't prolong the rebuild any further than 3 years, even if he wants to.

[LordKOTL]

I think this summer Kyle from Chicago needs to start bringing in fill in talent which we don't have in the prospect pool.

From there? Just stay filling in.

If I hold my stance that this season is like 2006, where the first core members are NHL ice, then next season we'll be bad as well, but the following should be a playoff push, even if we just miss.

I think after next season Kyle from Chicago should be feeling pressure; the team should be solidifying.

Right now? We know where some guys stand, so we know what trade or FA pieces will help them. That needs to start.

[ebonyraptor]

Apr 9, 2024 10:12:51 GMT -6 Granada said:

Apr 8, 2024 19:30:34 GMT -6 ebonyraptor said:

The end of the 2023/24 season only a few games away and it's looking more and more likely the 2024/25 season will be more of another small step in the rebuild process than a giant leap. My intention here is not to be critical as I believe the rebuild is on the right path even if the progress is slower than hoped for. Rather, my intention is to recalibrate the timeline of the rebuild. What we expect the lineup to look like heading into the 2025/26 season and where on the rebuild timeline will we be at that time - a year away? 2 years away? 5 years away? Will we have the lineup constructed well enough to be Cup contenders in 2026/27 or could it take as long as until 2029/30 or will this rebuild plan be unsuccessful entirely?

Obviously there are variables we can't know at this time but there are also things we can know and some reasonable assumptions we can make - starting with the most obvious and certain - who will still be under contract heading into the 2025/26 season:

Forwards Foligno, Dickenson and Bedard, and D-men Jones, Murphy and Korchinski, and Goalie Mrazek. A long way away from a Cup contending lineup.

I think it's reasonable to assume none of the UFA's will be resigned - so all of the following will be gone by the 2025/26 season: T. Johnson, Hall, Donato, Athanasiou, Blackwell, Tinordi, Megna and Zaitsev.

Of the RFA's - I think we can assume the following are extended: Reichel, Kurashev, Slaggert, Vlassic and Kaiser. Soderblom may be extended depending how he does next season and whether or not Commesso is ready.

So that's it - of the players who have played games with the Hawks this season and who project to be pieces of the rebuild heading into Year-4 of the rebuild in 2025/26 - (6) forwards, (5) d-men and 1 or 2 goalies.

There will be some prospects that make the team but which ones?  Hard to tell from here. There may be some free agents signed but there's no way to know who and when.

So - is the rebuild on track and is the timeline realistic or does something else need to be done? What are your expectation?

This is a good but tough question because it depends on whether or not you believe we're in a "rebuild" or if you believe we're in "a rebuild of a rebuild." I believe the latter.

Dach, Boqvist, Reichel, Mitchell, Lankinen, Entwistle, Bodin, Jokiharju -- really, none of these guys ever fleshed out and/or are jettisoned. And these were supposed to be the next wave. Kurashev is really the only player that has found his game and that is a top-six option going forward. Entwistle might be a 4th liner and Reichel is still a question mark.

Now, in addition to Bedard of course, you have Vlasic, Korchinski, Blackwell, Soderblom, Kaiser, Dickenson, Slaggert. To me, this is the "rebuild of a rebuild." It sucks because, imagine if Dach panned out. Or Reichel. You have guys like Colton Dach and Nazar, etc. who are supposedly top-six options for the future, but they'll obviously need more seasoning even before they see time in the NHL, so who in the current crop has top-six potential, now (i.e. 1-2 years).

Honestly, I don't think Davidson can afford to have his rebuild take longer than 3 years. He'll have to bring in some bonafide talent, be it free agency, etc. A rebuild of a rebuild is a shitty and a bit of an unfair position for any successor to be in, but even so, he can't prolong the rebuild any further than 3 years, even if he wants to.

Without trying to quibble semantics - I believe there is a definitive difference between what you call the first rebuild of a "rebuild of a rebuild" and the rebuild process initiated by KD with the sell off of assets for the purpose of accumulating draft capital - starting with the Hagel trade. Prior to the KD rebuild the direction of the team could be argued was non-existent as in there was no clear direction or at best it was a retool to slow the decline - hardly a rebuild by definition. Yes, Kane and Toews were kept on the team but I would argue that was more for good press than believing the T&K led team had another run in them post 2018. If the previous regime thought the diminished core group of Toews, Kane, Keith and Seabrook was still good enough to build a Cup contender around - hindsight has proven what was the prevailing wisdom at the time - they were not, and to think and do the patch job retool strategy was egregious mis-management. 

I don't think there should be any doubt the actual rebuild proper started with KD trading Hagel a little over 2 years ago and the rebuild is now going into the 3rd draft to be followed by the 3rd season.  I started this thread opining I thought the rebuild process seems will need a little more time than I originally thought which makes me set my expectations for the 'leap forward" year more likely to be 2 seasons from now - 2025/26 - rather than next season.  

[hawkfaninpdx]

Apr 9, 2024 12:03:03 GMT -6 LordKOTL said:

I think this summer Kyle from Chicago needs to start bringing in fill in talent which we don't have in the prospect pool.

From there? Just stay filling in.

If I hold my stance that this season is like 2006, where the first core members are NHL ice, then next season we'll be bad as well, but the following should be a playoff push, even if we just miss.

I think after next season Kyle from Chicago should be feeling pressure; the team should be solidifying.

Right now? We know where some guys stand, so we know what trade or FA pieces will help them. That needs to start.

I am not sure that this season is like 2006. The Hawks slowly started climbing out of the hole in '06, whereas the current Hawks are still digging. They need to put the shovel down. They need to find another solid player to play with Bedard and Kurashev; or maybe even a couple, and Shevy can slide down to the second line.

A realistic scenario -- something to strive for -- is being in contention for a playoff spot in 25-26. And, hopefully, it'll be with the team that's about 80% set.  

[Granada]

Apr 9, 2024 12:10:28 GMT -6 ebonyraptor said:

Apr 9, 2024 10:12:51 GMT -6 Granada said:

This is a good but tough question because it depends on whether or not you believe we're in a "rebuild" or if you believe we're in "a rebuild of a rebuild." I believe the latter.

Dach, Boqvist, Reichel, Mitchell, Lankinen, Entwistle, Bodin, Jokiharju -- really, none of these guys ever fleshed out and/or are jettisoned. And these were supposed to be the next wave. Kurashev is really the only player that has found his game and that is a top-six option going forward. Entwistle might be a 4th liner and Reichel is still a question mark.

Now, in addition to Bedard of course, you have Vlasic, Korchinski, Blackwell, Soderblom, Kaiser, Dickenson, Slaggert. To me, this is the "rebuild of a rebuild." It sucks because, imagine if Dach panned out. Or Reichel. You have guys like Colton Dach and Nazar, etc. who are supposedly top-six options for the future, but they'll obviously need more seasoning even before they see time in the NHL, so who in the current crop has top-six potential, now (i.e. 1-2 years).

Honestly, I don't think Davidson can afford to have his rebuild take longer than 3 years. He'll have to bring in some bonafide talent, be it free agency, etc. A rebuild of a rebuild is a shitty and a bit of an unfair position for any successor to be in, but even so, he can't prolong the rebuild any further than 3 years, even if he wants to.

Without trying to quibble semantics - I believe there is a definitive difference between what you call the first rebuild of a "rebuild of a rebuild" and the rebuild process initiated by KD with the sell off of assets for the purpose of accumulating draft capital - starting with the Hagel trade. Prior to the KD rebuild the direction of the team could be argued was non-existent as in there was no clear direction or at best it was a retool to slow the decline - hardly a rebuild by definition. Yes, Kane and Toews were kept on the team but I would argue that was more for good press than believing the T&K led team had another run in them post 2018. If the previous regime thought the diminished core group of Toews, Kane, Keith and Seabrook was still good enough to build a Cup contender around - hindsight has proven what was the prevailing wisdom at the time - they were not, and to think and do the patch job retool strategy was egregious mis-management. 

I don't think there should be any doubt the actual rebuild proper started with KD trading Hagel a little over 2 years ago and the rebuild is now going into the 3rd draft to be followed by the 3rd season.  I started this thread opining I thought the rebuild process seems will need a little more time than I originally thought which makes me set my expectations for the 'leap forward" year more likely to be 2 seasons from now - 2025/26 - rather than next season.  

What I meant was, the "rebuild" was Bowman. The "rebuild of a rebuild" is Davidson.

Bowman was rebuilding until he essentially freaked out and reversed course, trading Panarin for Saad, getting as many retreads as he could, and then implementing a rebuild on the fly. Which was a disaster.

Now Davidson is trying to correct course. Trading Hagel was a deal he couldn't refuse, and he rightfully pulled the trigger. As much as I liked Hagel, he had to make that deal.

Davidson needs to be careful not to make the same mistake, but again, he might not have a choice, considering how long the team has already been "rebuilding" in general (i.e. his predecessor).

[ebonyraptor]

Apr 9, 2024 13:00:48 GMT -6 hawkfaninpdx said:

Apr 9, 2024 12:03:03 GMT -6 LordKOTL said:

I think this summer Kyle from Chicago needs to start bringing in fill in talent which we don't have in the prospect pool.

From there? Just stay filling in.

If I hold my stance that this season is like 2006, where the first core members are NHL ice, then next season we'll be bad as well, but the following should be a playoff push, even if we just miss.

I think after next season Kyle from Chicago should be feeling pressure; the team should be solidifying.

Right now? We know where some guys stand, so we know what trade or FA pieces will help them. That needs to start.

I am not sure that this season is like 2006. The Hawks slowly started climbing out of the hole in '06, whereas the current Hawks are still digging. They need to put the shovel down. They need to find another solid player to play with Bedard and Kurashev; or maybe even a couple, and Shevy can slide down to the second line.

A realistic scenario -- something to strive for -- is being in contention for a playoff spot in 25-26. And, hopefully, it'll be with the team that's about 80% set.  

I think BigT's stance that the big leap in the rebuild possible comes next season in 2024/25 - is POSSIBLE - but I don't think it's LIKELY. Whereas before this season started I thought there was a good possibility the Hawks could be improved enough to be a fringe playoff contender - I have changed my expectation of when the Hawks are more likely to be a fringe playoff contender to the following season - 2025/26 - which is to say next season - 2024/25 - will be more likely to be very much the same as 2023/24 than likely to be much improved.

If using a percentage scale to indicate progress of the rebuild where 100% means the Hawks are legitimate Cup contenders and the rebuild is effectively complete - then I would say the current progress level to be in to 20%-30% range where much of the rebuild is still to be determined by how well the prospects already in the system develop and become pieces in the rebuild. We may have more than 50% of the pieces but many of them are still in the development phase so we can't know with certainty if and when they become part of the team. If we're at 80% heading into the 2025/26 season I think that would mean the team made a big leap forward between now and then.

[ebonyraptor]

Apr 9, 2024 13:13:48 GMT -6 Granada said:

Apr 9, 2024 12:10:28 GMT -6 ebonyraptor said:

Without trying to quibble semantics - I believe there is a definitive difference between what you call the first rebuild of a "rebuild of a rebuild" and the rebuild process initiated by KD with the sell off of assets for the purpose of accumulating draft capital - starting with the Hagel trade. Prior to the KD rebuild the direction of the team could be argued was non-existent as in there was no clear direction or at best it was a retool to slow the decline - hardly a rebuild by definition. Yes, Kane and Toews were kept on the team but I would argue that was more for good press than believing the T&K led team had another run in them post 2018. If the previous regime thought the diminished core group of Toews, Kane, Keith and Seabrook was still good enough to build a Cup contender around - hindsight has proven what was the prevailing wisdom at the time - they were not, and to think and do the patch job retool strategy was egregious mis-management. 

I don't think there should be any doubt the actual rebuild proper started with KD trading Hagel a little over 2 years ago and the rebuild is now going into the 3rd draft to be followed by the 3rd season.  I started this thread opining I thought the rebuild process seems will need a little more time than I originally thought which makes me set my expectations for the 'leap forward" year more likely to be 2 seasons from now - 2025/26 - rather than next season.  

What I meant was, the "rebuild" was Bowman. The "rebuild of a rebuild" is Davidson.

Bowman was rebuilding until he essentially freaked out and reversed course, trading Panarin for Saad, getting as many retreads as he could, and then implementing a rebuild on the fly. Which was a disaster.

Now Davidson is trying to correct course. Trading Hagel was a deal he couldn't refuse, and he rightfully pulled the trigger. As much as I liked Hagel, he had to make that deal.

Davidson needs to be careful not to make the same mistake, but again, he might not have a choice, considering how long the team has already been "rebuilding" in general (i.e. his predecessor).

I knew what you meant - that the first "rebuild" was what Stan did and the second rebuild was what KD is doing. My issue with that sentiment is calling what Stan did a "rebuild". Even the Panarin trade was more about trying to keep the gang together within the Cap constraints than it was about a rebuilding type roster restructure.

Plucking Panarin out of Russian obscurity was a master stroke of GM'ing and a feather in Stan's cap - and it was fun to watch he and Kane dazzle together for a couple seasons - but in the end it may have hurt the Hawks more than helped them because it gave them regular season hope to cover over the playoff failures of 2016 and 2017 - especially 2017 where Nashville discarded the Hawks like yesterday's news. The Cup winning roster was already starting to decline but with the regular season success it made it almost impossible for Stan to tear it down for a legitimate rebuild. Instead, he kept applying patches trying to give the old guard one more kick at the can. If Panarin didn't happen for the Hawks the 2016 and 2017 regular seasons aren't as good and MAYBE the thought of a actual rebuild could have been entertained. But it didn't happen and it still didn't happen for the succeeding 5 seasons until KD took over.

[Granada]

Apr 9, 2024 13:39:34 GMT -6 ebonyraptor said:

Apr 9, 2024 13:13:48 GMT -6 Granada said:

What I meant was, the "rebuild" was Bowman. The "rebuild of a rebuild" is Davidson.

Bowman was rebuilding until he essentially freaked out and reversed course, trading Panarin for Saad, getting as many retreads as he could, and then implementing a rebuild on the fly. Which was a disaster.

Now Davidson is trying to correct course. Trading Hagel was a deal he couldn't refuse, and he rightfully pulled the trigger. As much as I liked Hagel, he had to make that deal.

Davidson needs to be careful not to make the same mistake, but again, he might not have a choice, considering how long the team has already been "rebuilding" in general (i.e. his predecessor).

I knew what you meant - that the first "rebuild" was what Stan did and the second rebuild was what KD is doing. My issue with that sentiment is calling what Stan did a "rebuild". Even the Panarin trade was more about trying to keep the gang together within the Cap constraints than it was about a rebuilding type roster restructure.

Plucking Panarin out of Russian obscurity was a master stroke of GM'ing and a feather in Stan's cap - and it was fun to watch he and Kane dazzle together for a couple seasons - but in the end it may have hurt the Hawks more than helped them because it gave them regular season hope to cover over the playoff failures of 2016 and 2017 - especially 2017 where Nashville discarded the Hawks like yesterday's news. The Cup winning roster was already starting to decline but with the regular season success it made it almost impossible for Stan to tear it down for a legitimate rebuild. Instead, he kept applying patches trying to give the old guard one more kick at the can. If Panarin didn't happen for the Hawks the 2016 and 2017 regular seasons aren't as good and MAYBE the thought of a actual rebuild could have been entertained. But it didn't happen and it still didn't happen for the succeeding 5 seasons until KD took over.

chicago.suntimes.com/blackhawks/2020/10/20/21524503/blackhawks-rebuilding-letter-stan-bowman-danny-wirtz-communication-jonathan-toews

[mvr]

The "rebuild" started the moment Little Bowman traded away Hjalmarsson for the younger Murphy and unloaded Panarin for the less expensive Saad.

These trades - combined with Hossa's retirement - signaled a turning over of the roster and a push toward a full rebuild.

The previous year 2016-17, Quenneville had integrated a series of young players into the lineup - in what was to my mind his single most impressive display of coaching. The team finished with a record of 50-23-9. Instead of making a serious attempt to win, the egotist general manager told us at deadline that he "liked" his roster (and began to make public his feud with the three time cup-winning coach). 

This was the beginning of a turning over of the roster. Most of the moves since then, other than the seriously misguided and panicked decision to acquire Seth Jones, have been about looking towards the future.

I understand people like to see the Davidson era as a do-over. But in truth we are really well into an eight year rebuild now (and let's not forget, Davidson was a central figure of the Bowman management team). There were many quality future pieces in place when the "new" regime took over. The fact that the  Davidson team made some huge miscalculations has slow things down.

[mvr]

Much like Davidson, Bowman was trading present players for futures as far back as 2018.

He traded Ryan Hartman for a first round pick (Nick Beaudin). He traded Nick Schmaltz for Dylan Strome and Perlini. Saad was traded for Zadorov

The problem here is that these trades did not work out.

When you trade proven and existing NHL talent for prospects or picks, you are taking a gamble. The odds tell us that picks don't always work out.

The only real difference between Bowman's approach at the tail end of his time here and Davidson's is extreme speed and depth of the changes. The direction is consistent. The younger general manager was willing to accelerate the teardown with a scorched earth approach that included pushing out Kane and Toews.

There was no room left in Davidson's agenda for loyalty or sentiment. In fact, he wanted everyone gone who had influence or was a potential threat.

[ebonyraptor]

Apr 9, 2024 13:42:04 GMT -6 Granada said:

Apr 9, 2024 13:39:34 GMT -6 ebonyraptor said:

I knew what you meant - that the first "rebuild" was what Stan did and the second rebuild was what KD is doing. My issue with that sentiment is calling what Stan did a "rebuild". Even the Panarin trade was more about trying to keep the gang together within the Cap constraints than it was about a rebuilding type roster restructure.

Plucking Panarin out of Russian obscurity was a master stroke of GM'ing and a feather in Stan's cap - and it was fun to watch he and Kane dazzle together for a couple seasons - but in the end it may have hurt the Hawks more than helped them because it gave them regular season hope to cover over the playoff failures of 2016 and 2017 - especially 2017 where Nashville discarded the Hawks like yesterday's news. The Cup winning roster was already starting to decline but with the regular season success it made it almost impossible for Stan to tear it down for a legitimate rebuild. Instead, he kept applying patches trying to give the old guard one more kick at the can. If Panarin didn't happen for the Hawks the 2016 and 2017 regular seasons aren't as good and MAYBE the thought of a actual rebuild could have been entertained. But it didn't happen and it still didn't happen for the succeeding 5 seasons until KD took over.

chicago.suntimes.com/blackhawks/2020/10/20/21524503/blackhawks-rebuilding-letter-stan-bowman-danny-wirtz-communication-jonathan-toews

Oh I remember the word "rebuild" being used in Bowman's proclamation - my opposition to it being an actual rebuild is based on (1) the definition of the word: (verb: build (something) again after it has been damaged or destroyed), and (2) my recollection of having lived through those years which felt entirely different from what it feels like these past couple years. Then - it was trying to patch together a team around the old core group of Toews, Kane, Keith and Seabrook - a REMODEL or RETOOL. Now - it is trying to build an entirely new core group - a REBUILD,

I suppose I am playing a game of semantics but I never once truly believed Stan's plan would result in the team being rebuilt to contender status. Now, I have reasonable hope this rebuild approach will result in the Hawks becoming Cup contenders again.

Having said that - this rebuild or not rebuild topic is a side issue to the purpose of this thread - which is that it's my contention the 2024/25 season will not be appreciably different than the current season which is a change of expectations for me - basically pushing back the progress of the rebuild a year from where I thought it would be. I've thought all along the progress of the rebuild would be based on how long it took the d-prospects to get established and playing at a high level. My expectations were it would take 3 seasons meaning by the end of next season the first wave of d-prospects will have had 200 games under their belt and starting to hit their stride with the next wave of d-prospects a year behind them. I now think that was too optimistic and will take at least another year meaning it will be another 2 seasons before they approach the part of the rebuild where they're sniffing the playoffs. 

[mvr]

Your "contention" is spot on.

This "rebuild" is years away. When you burn down the entire foundation, you start from scratch. Building from the draft takes years if you get lucky. It could take decades.

[mvr]

Given the dreadful talent-free roster, the team's play this year should not be at all surprising.

Next year might be even worse considering the number of young defenders which the coach will have to integrate. We might be looking at a historically bad team in 2024-25 (think the Ottawa Senators from the Daigle days).

The only saving grace here is the cap space floor situation and the strong possibility that Davidson changes course and overpays this offseason on some legit veteran talent (ie Khabibulin, Lapointe, Aucoin, Cullimore, Havlat).

[ebonyraptor]

Apr 9, 2024 17:52:37 GMT -6 mvr said:

Given the dreadful talent-free roster, the team's play this year should not be at all surprising.

Next year might be even worse considering the number of young defenders which the coach will have to integrate. We might be looking at a historically bad team in 2024-25 (think the Ottawa Senators from the Daigle days).

The only saving grace here is the cap space floor situation and the strong possibility that Davidson changes course and overpays this offseason on some legit veteran talent (ie Khabibulin, Lapointe, Aucoin, Cullimore, Havlat).

I know you don't mean that literally - there is some talent on this team - and just as important there is some talent in the prospect pipeline. What we don't know is how well  those talented prospects will develop, when they will be ready to play effective NHL hockey, and what holes in the lineup will need to be filled from outside the organization. 

I'm optimistic the rebuild will position the Hawks to be playoff contenders in 2-3 years. How soon after they contend for a playoff spot will they contend for the Cup is more difficult to predict/project and may require an adjustment in the current rebuild strategic plan. 

[mvr]

Ebony: You're correct. My language was over the top.

Clearly Bedard is a keeper, and Seth Jones can play when he feels like it. A few Stan Bowman picks have shown some promise this year - Vlasic and Kaiser especially - and I still hold out hope for others - Allan and Del Mastro and Kirby Dach's brother... I do worry about the damage being done to Korchinski and Reichel. Clearly the young goalie might already be ruined. Confidence is everything.

Call me a pessimist, but I think we all recognize how much work still needs to be done. It is frustrating because the present dire straights situation was all so predictable. I have little confidence in this general manager's plan given what I have seen from him so far. His one real accomplishment has been to get lucky with a lottery ball.

[mvr]

Despite all the high draft picks made by Davidson the past few years, many scouting services still don't rate the Hawks system that highly.

The consensus about the best prospects - Nazer and Moore - is that both will play a role, but neither is guaranteed to be a top six talent.

Many of the other forwards - ie Hayes, Lardis etc.- have produced solid scoring numbers in lower leagues (as expected). But the thinking is that their games might not translate to the pros. Some are small perimeter types. Others lack defensive awareness. There was a reason why these prospects were drafted outside the top thirty.

Clearly, none of them are close.

[ebonyraptor]

Apr 9, 2024 20:34:27 GMT -6 mvr said:

Despite all the high draft picks made by Davidson the past few years, many scouting services still don't rate the Hawks system that highly.

The consensus about the best prospects - Nazer and Moore - is that both will play a role, but neither is guaranteed to be a top six talent.

Many of the other forwards - ie Hayes, Lardis etc.- have produced solid scoring numbers in lower leagues (as expected). But the thinking is that their games might not translate to the pros. Some are small perimeter types. Others lack defensive awareness. There was a reason why these prospects were drafted outside the top thirty.

Clearly, none of them are close.

I agree there is still much more needed than what has been revealed to this point but I disagree there was a better path to take. I was advocating for just this type of tear down rebuild several years before KD replaced Stan and I was willing and expecting short term pain in order to achieve long term gain. The debate (for me and other proponents of this rebuild) is how long does the "short term pain" last before we start realizing the log term gain. It can't be open ended but what is fair enough to give it time to work but not so long that a new approach is warranted? I don't know but it isn't yet and probably have at least a couple more years.

[OldTimeHawky]

Apr 9, 2024 20:34:27 GMT -6 mvr said:

Despite all the high draft picks made by Davidson the past few years, many scouting services still don't rate the Hawks system that highly.

The consensus about the best prospects - Nazer and Moore - is that both will play a role, but neither is guaranteed to be a top six talent.

Many of the other forwards - ie Hayes, Lardis etc.- have produced solid scoring numbers in lower leagues (as expected). But the thinking is that their games might not translate to the pros. Some are small perimeter types. Others lack defensive awareness. There was a reason why these prospects were drafted outside the top thirty.

Clearly, none of them are close.

When Davidson took over the Hawks system was ranked around 23, then it was top5, and now 2nd in the league. I'm not sure who these "many scouts" are but KD really replenished the system. And he's only had TWO drafts, so it's only been a couple years, not a few. And what do you consider high picks? Top10 are high picks, he's only had 2, if you consider top15, then he's had 3. If you consider first rounders high picks, he's only had 5.

His highest picks, #7 and #1 overall, are playing full time and even if Nazar and Moore are complimentary pieces, that's ok because that's what the Hawks need, right now it's mostly bottom 6 forwards and AHLers.

Lardis is probably the lightest player he's drafted but he's far from a perimeter player, and yeah these picks were drafted outside of the top30, because not everyone is a first rounder.

[Hockey is great]

Any tear down to the level the hawks are doing you have to accept long term pain with a hope of making it through the rebuild on the up and up

[ebonyraptor]

I seem to have contributed to the derailment of my own thread, somewhat. Definitions of rebuild and short term versus long term are all germane discussion topics in the broader topic of the Hawks rebuild, but my intent for this discussion was really to delve into expectations and whether or not those expectations have changed from 2 years ago when this journey was started. At that time I had expectations on how it would work and how long it would take - nothing crystal clear, to be sure - much more nebulous than that, and I suspected most Hawks had their own version of expectations.

Two years later - my original expectations have changed - not drastic but still significant. Have your expectations changed?

[OldTimeHawky]

2025-26 is the last year of Bedards ELC and he'll most likely be the captain, with at least three guys he was the captain of with Canada, Korchinski, Dach, and Del Mastro, or Allan, or all four.

And there's a good chance the four who won gold this year will be Blackhawks in 2yrs. Nazar, Moore, Rinzel, and Hayes.

Plus with the many picks from the last two drafts, this year, and next, the 2025-26 team will have depth on every line. Not to mention the picks going back to 2019, Vlasic is looking like a core top4 dman.

The summer after this one is when KD should, or he's allowed to, spend money on a couple high end free agents to help the young guys. Either they have a run like 09 or just miss out like 08, either way it'll be a far more entertaining team.