30
|
|
Post by hsbob on Apr 10, 2024 7:15:05 GMT -6
I seem to have contributed to the derailment of my own thread, somewhat. Definitions of rebuild and short term versus long term are all germane discussion topics in the broader topic of the Hawks rebuild, but my intent for this discussion was really to delve into expectations and whether or not those expectations have changed from 2 years ago when this journey was started. At that time I had expectations on how it would work and how long it would take - nothing crystal clear, to be sure - much more nebulous than that, and I suspected most Hawks had their own version of expectations. Two years later - my original expectations have changed - not drastic but still significant. Have your expectations changed? Not at all ER,it's a great thread and a great conversation. I too recall SB announcing his 'youth movement' in the fall of '20',even though he dealt promising young D-man Jokiharju the summer before and then proceeded to trade for Jones and sign MAF the following summer. The last GM's 2-3 years here were his worst,so maybe he was just inept,but I believe ownership might have panicked over the lack of revenue during Covid and told him to shelve that 'youth movement' stuff for a while. The way the new GM's cleared the decks in the current rebuild is a change in direction that hasn't been taken here,or that many other places for that matter in some time. Danny might have been the CEO in '20' but the Old Man still held a LOT of sway back then,It's Danny and Jr's team now.....compleatly. The team drafted FIVE players in the 1st round the last two years alone,five in the 2nd and five in the 3rd,it took dealin' some good players but that's five year's worth of quality picks in two drafts. The upcoming draft has two 1st's,three 2nd's and two 3rd's and the following draft sees two,two and one. I'm not sure where to check but this is an unprecedented amount of draft capitol possessed by any team over a four year span. The team's cap situation might also be unprecedented with only one long-term contract and a rising cap that will allow the team to sign or extend the players of their choosing and possibly trade some highly valuable,future draft capitol to expidite things w/o impacting the future. Even a supposed less patient fan like myself realizes this'll take another few years,I just ould like to see a direction towards competitiveness sooner rather than later because I feel it's a better environment for young players......and more fun to watch. |
|
|
|
Post by BigT on Apr 10, 2024 7:29:13 GMT -6
Given the dreadful talent-free roster, the team's play this year should not be at all surprising. Next year might be even worse considering the number of young defenders which the coach will have to integrate. We might be looking at a historically bad team in 2024-25 (think the Ottawa Senators from the Daigle days). The only saving grace here is the cap space floor situation and the strong possibility that Davidson changes course and overpays this offseason on some legit veteran talent (ie Khabibulin, Lapointe, Aucoin, Cullimore, Havlat). Obviously he’s gotta sign some guys. Gotta hit the cap floor. So I’m guessing he gets a couple guys for 3-4 years and a few more for 2 years. And obviously overpays them. Overpaying them is ok if it’s on the short term. My bigger fear, and I’ve said all along, is that the team will actually start to look good. Then they integrate more youth and take a step back like NJ has. Or Ottawa. I believe when the Wings integrate more youth, they’ll take a step back too. So maybe it’s better to stay bad while you get the kids in the lineup? I personally don’t think that’ll happen. I’m think the Hawks are playing right now, the way you’ll see next year. The Hawks will have a bunch of guys playing for a contract like AA, Hall and probably 5-6 others. So they always over achieve. I really believe the guy when he says he’s letting things happen organically. I believe he’s just letting the team be. Slowly but surely adding in some guys. I don’t see the Hawks being his bad next year. And f all the pending UFA’s next year I lay for a contract. Hawks will contend for a playoff spot!!! |
|
|
|
Post by ebonyraptor on Apr 10, 2024 8:42:22 GMT -6
I seem to have contributed to the derailment of my own thread, somewhat. Definitions of rebuild and short term versus long term are all germane discussion topics in the broader topic of the Hawks rebuild, but my intent for this discussion was really to delve into expectations and whether or not those expectations have changed from 2 years ago when this journey was started. At that time I had expectations on how it would work and how long it would take - nothing crystal clear, to be sure - much more nebulous than that, and I suspected most Hawks had their own version of expectations. Two years later - my original expectations have changed - not drastic but still significant. Have your expectations changed? Not at all ER ,it's a great thread and a great conversation. Thanks Bob. I think more than anything it speaks to my insatiable appetite for Hawks conversation and the awareness the offseason drought will be upon us more quickly than we want. My fundamental reason for being on board for this rebuild from Day-1 is because I was on board from before Day-1 - before KD came along and did what he did. For several years I thought a true tear it down rebuild was required to return to Cup contending status before all us boomers went to the great rink in the sky. It looked like we were headed to the inevitable middle of the road mediocrity and that's the last thing I wanted. This rebuild plan is risky - it may not work as planned. I get that, but I applaud the boldness to try and I'll take the necessary pain along the way because I think it was the best option available. |
|
|
|
Post by Granada on Apr 10, 2024 9:16:39 GMT -6
The "rebuild" started the moment Little Bowman traded away Hjalmarsson for the younger Murphy and unloaded Panarin for the less expensive Saad. These trades - combined with Hossa's retirement - signaled a turning over of the roster and a push toward a full rebuild. The previous year 2016-17, Quenneville had integrated a series of young players into the lineup - in what was to my mind his single most impressive display of coaching. The team finished with a record of 50-23-9. Instead of making a serious attempt to win, the egotist general manager told us at deadline that he "liked" his roster (and began to make public his feud with the three time cup-winning coach). This was the beginning of a turning over of the roster. Most of the moves since then, other than the seriously misguided and panicked decision to acquire Seth Jones, have been about looking towards the future. I understand people like to see the Davidson era as a do-over. But in truth we are really well into an eight year rebuild now (and let's not forget, Davidson was a central figure of the Bowman management team). There were many quality future pieces in place when the "new" regime took over. The fact that the Davidson team made some huge miscalculations has slow things down. Yeah I don't see it as a do-over as much as a course correction. Obviously Davidson was a part of the Stan regime, but I can't help but believe they did not see eye to eye. Davidson's actions once he obtained Head GM status all but illustrate that notion. His vision did not match Stan's, who was trying to have his cake (rebuild) and eat it too (on the fly). |
|
|
|
Post by bigbarn27 on Apr 10, 2024 9:23:51 GMT -6
I did not think it was the best option thought it was the 2nd easiest option. but here we are you asked a couple questions. First is the rebuild on schedule I don't know what that schedule is but with Lucas being the only prospect to have taken a step back there is no way they are behind schedule.The team this year took a step back but that was to be excepted with the leadership change soon it will be 98s team need at least 1 other kid to be big locker guy and they have some. As far as in 2 years starting from net out. Maz and Commesso
give Drew the whole year with the hogs next year I would also like to see EDM and Allen in Rockford all next year and all 3 in 25/26 up with Hawks with those 2 we have Kor Jones and the Pickle. Murf and kaiser both traded. Forwards beacon of hope, Kur, Nascar, Dach, Slaggart, dick and flo.I will throw in Savoie also. I believe this summer we need someone to help 98 with scoring burden and as ER said a legit face puncher for bottom 6 both need more than 2 year contracts time to start building a team not just having place holders. Now the hard part I hope KD makes me eat my words everyday. And yes I also see Lucas traded.
|
|
|
|
Post by LordKOTL on Apr 10, 2024 11:02:52 GMT -6
I think this summer Kyle from Chicago needs to start bringing in fill in talent which we don't have in the prospect pool. From there? Just stay filling in. If I hold my stance that this season is like 2006, where the first core members are NHL ice, then next season we'll be bad as well, but the following should be a playoff push, even if we just miss. I think after next season Kyle from Chicago should be feeling pressure; the team should be solidifying. Right now? We know where some guys stand, so we know what trade or FA pieces will help them. That needs to start. I am not sure that this season is like 2006. The Hawks slowly started climbing out of the hole in '06, whereas the current Hawks are still digging. They need to put the shovel down. They need to find another solid player to play with Bedard and Kurashev; or maybe even a couple, and Shevy can slide down to the second line. A realistic scenario -- something to strive for -- is being in contention for a playoff spot in 25-26. And, hopefully, it'll be with the team that's about 80% set. In 2004, the 'hawks were 2nd worse and had 59 points. No one on the team was part of the cup winning core. In 2006 (no 2005 season), they were 3rd last, 65 points, and saw Keith and Seabrook (and a couple of games by Crawford) take the NHL ice. That was the comparison. We were/are in the cellar, and we are likely seeing the first season of the future core. We needed guys who could play with Keith and Seabrook and augment the D not named Aucoin and Cullimore. We needed someone worth a squirt of piss at FWD (not the ABC line). Khabi was paid a fuck-tonne of money, was injured, and didn't do much worthwhile that year. We also had a coach that didn't last--but who knows what LR will be. Before 2006? We had little hope and no one worthwhile in the lineup except for a guys who will be cycled out for better personnel (Reichel?) I think we won't know whether or not this is 2006 de facto until next year or the following, but right now it's probably be best comparison in my mind. |
|
|
|
Post by LordKOTL on Apr 10, 2024 11:10:37 GMT -6
The "rebuild" started the moment Little Bowman traded away Hjalmarsson for the younger Murphy and unloaded Panarin for the less expensive Saad. These trades - combined with Hossa's retirement - signaled a turning over of the roster and a push toward a full rebuild. The previous year 2016-17, Quenneville had integrated a series of young players into the lineup - in what was to my mind his single most impressive display of coaching. The team finished with a record of 50-23-9. Instead of making a serious attempt to win, the egotist general manager told us at deadline that he "liked" his roster (and began to make public his feud with the three time cup-winning coach). This was the beginning of a turning over of the roster. Most of the moves since then, other than the seriously misguided and panicked decision to acquire Seth Jones, have been about looking towards the future. I understand people like to see the Davidson era as a do-over. But in truth we are really well into an eight year rebuild now (and let's not forget, Davidson was a central figure of the Bowman management team). There were many quality future pieces in place when the "new" regime took over. The fact that the Davidson team made some huge miscalculations has slow things down. I disagree with that assessment--if that was the case then in my opinion the previous build didn't start in 2006; it started earlier; some might say when we lost the core guys from the 1992 roster, other more cynical types when we lost the core guys from the 1961 roster, and every move since was a move to "rebuild"--without acknowledging floundering in between due to incompetent management. Between losing Hjammer and Hossa? The team floundered and wallowed due to incompetent management that did not acquire the proper personnel for a build or a rebuild. That in my opinion is not a build--especially since most of the acquisitions, while intended to make the team better, didn't in actuality. In the same vein, I do realize that if KD fails at this, then his would not be a build, it would be a floundering as well. |
|
|
|
Post by LordKOTL on Apr 10, 2024 11:22:01 GMT -6
2025-26 is the last year of Bedards ELC and he'll most likely be the captain, with at least three guys he was the captain of with Canada, Korchinski, Dach, and Del Mastro, or Allan, or all four. And there's a good chance the four who won gold this year will be Blackhawks in 2yrs. Nazar, Moore, Rinzel, and Hayes. Plus with the many picks from the last two drafts, this year, and next, the 2025-26 team will have depth on every line. Not to mention the picks going back to 2019, Vlasic is looking like a core top4 dman. The summer after this one is when KD should, or he's allowed to, spend money on a couple high end free agents to help the young guys. Either they have a run like 09 or just miss out like 08, either way it'll be a far more entertaining team. I would argue that is there is an FA/Trade chip that can be acquired this summer, who is not going to age out anytime soon, and someone that can help the team *now*, they deserve a serious consideration: Righty whos' a stay-at-home Vlassic type that can play with Korch? Yes. Big winger for Bedard who can win board battles, go to the blue paint, and is good defensively? Yes. I would even argue a goalie if we find one who's a considerable step-up from Mrazek and their numbers are good when inundated by high quality shots and they are not at the mercy of a good D would be worth looking at as long as the price isn't Jones high. I think that has to be the shrewd part Kyle from Chicago has to consider. Not all prospects make it or develop like we'd like. If there is a realistic option *now*, might as well--especially if it's filling a goatse.cx sized hole in the lineup where any prospect would be years out. |
|
|
|
Post by LordKOTL on Apr 10, 2024 11:26:08 GMT -6
I seem to have contributed to the derailment of my own thread, somewhat. Definitions of rebuild and short term versus long term are all germane discussion topics in the broader topic of the Hawks rebuild, but my intent for this discussion was really to delve into expectations and whether or not those expectations have changed from 2 years ago when this journey was started. At that time I had expectations on how it would work and how long it would take - nothing crystal clear, to be sure - much more nebulous than that, and I suspected most Hawks had their own version of expectations. Two years later - my original expectations have changed - not drastic but still significant. Have your expectations changed? Not at all ER,it's a great thread and a great conversation. I too recall SB announcing his 'youth movement' in the fall of '20',even though he dealt promising young D-man Jokiharju the summer before and then proceeded to trade for Jones and sign MAF the following summer. The last GM's 2-3 years here were his worst,so maybe he was just inept,but I believe ownership might have panicked over the lack of revenue during Covid and told him to shelve that 'youth movement' stuff for a while. The way the new GM's cleared the decks in the current rebuild is a change in direction that hasn't been taken here,or that many other places for that matter in some time. Danny might have been the CEO in '20' but the Old Man still held a LOT of sway back then,It's Danny and Jr's team now.....compleatly. The team drafted FIVE players in the 1st round the last two years alone,five in the 2nd and five in the 3rd,it took dealin' some good players but that's five year's worth of quality picks in two drafts. The upcoming draft has two 1st's,three 2nd's and two 3rd's and the following draft sees two,two and one. I'm not sure where to check but this is an unprecedented amount of draft capitol possessed by any team over a four year span. The team's cap situation might also be unprecedented with only one long-term contract and a rising cap that will allow the team to sign or extend the players of their choosing and possibly trade some highly valuable,future draft capitol to expidite things w/o impacting the future. Even a supposed less patient fan like myself realizes this'll take another few years,I just ould like to see a direction towards competitiveness sooner rather than later because I feel it's a better environment for young players......and more fun to watch. Taking off of my previous answer to hawkfaninpdx , I also think had the injury bug/Perry's issues had not hit the team so bloody hard this season, we probably would have gained a position in the standings over last season. I think that the team this year is in vs last year has to take that into consideration. I don't think this year's team is better than last years had the injury bug not hit. |
|
|
|
Post by ebonyraptor on Apr 10, 2024 12:28:27 GMT -6
Not at all ER,it's a great thread and a great conversation. I too recall SB announcing his 'youth movement' in the fall of '20',even though he dealt promising young D-man Jokiharju the summer before and then proceeded to trade for Jones and sign MAF the following summer. The last GM's 2-3 years here were his worst,so maybe he was just inept,but I believe ownership might have panicked over the lack of revenue during Covid and told him to shelve that 'youth movement' stuff for a while. The way the new GM's cleared the decks in the current rebuild is a change in direction that hasn't been taken here,or that many other places for that matter in some time. Danny might have been the CEO in '20' but the Old Man still held a LOT of sway back then,It's Danny and Jr's team now.....compleatly. The team drafted FIVE players in the 1st round the last two years alone,five in the 2nd and five in the 3rd,it took dealin' some good players but that's five year's worth of quality picks in two drafts. The upcoming draft has two 1st's,three 2nd's and two 3rd's and the following draft sees two,two and one. I'm not sure where to check but this is an unprecedented amount of draft capitol possessed by any team over a four year span. The team's cap situation might also be unprecedented with only one long-term contract and a rising cap that will allow the team to sign or extend the players of their choosing and possibly trade some highly valuable,future draft capitol to expidite things w/o impacting the future. Even a supposed less patient fan like myself realizes this'll take another few years,I just ould like to see a direction towards competitiveness sooner rather than later because I feel it's a better environment for young players......and more fun to watch. Taking off of my previous answer to hawkfaninpdx , I also think had the injury bug/Perry's issues had not hit the team so bloody hard this season, we probably would have gained a position in the standings over last season. I think that the team this year is in vs last year has to take that into consideration. I don't think this year's team is better than last years had the injury bug not hit. Comparing the team last season with this season, even though the win/loss records are essentially the same, is more or less meaningless because the teams and circumstances were so different. The 2022/23 team had some of their best players leave at the TDL meaning those players didn't play the last 20-25 games of the season - Kane, Domi, Toews, Lafferty and McCabe. This season players were missing due to injuries. Also - last season really didn't promote prospects into significant roles for any meaningful number of games - that is quite different this season with a number of prominent prospects getting a lot of games and experience - Bedard, Vlassic and Korchinski. So - not much difference in win/loss but first wave of future core now has their first year of full time NHL experience under their belt - which is progress from last season. |
|
|
|
Post by galaxytrash on Apr 10, 2024 12:35:12 GMT -6
Taking off of my previous answer to hawkfaninpdx , I also think had the injury bug/Perry's issues had not hit the team so bloody hard this season, we probably would have gained a position in the standings over last season. I think that the team this year is in vs last year has to take that into consideration. I don't think this year's team is better than last years had the injury bug not hit. Comparing the team last season with this season, even though the win/loss records are essentially the same, is more or less meaningless because the teams and circumstances were so different. The 2022/23 team had some of their best players leave at the TDL meaning those players didn't play the last 20-25 games of the season - Kane, Domi, Toews, Lafferty and McCabe. This season players were missing due to injuries. Also - last season really didn't promote prospects into significant roles for any meaningful number of games - that is quite different this season with a number of prominent prospects getting a lot of games and experience - Bedard, Vlassic and Korchinski. So - not much difference in win/loss but first wave of future core now has their first year of full time NHL experience under their belt - which is progress from last season. mrazek's surprise resurrection this year has definitely put a bit of a shine on this season that (imho) wasn't expected. |
|
|
|
Post by mvr on Apr 10, 2024 12:48:56 GMT -6
The "rebuild" started the moment Little Bowman traded away Hjalmarsson for the younger Murphy and unloaded Panarin for the less expensive Saad. These trades - combined with Hossa's retirement - signaled a turning over of the roster and a push toward a full rebuild. The previous year 2016-17, Quenneville had integrated a series of young players into the lineup - in what was to my mind his single most impressive display of coaching. The team finished with a record of 50-23-9. Instead of making a serious attempt to win, the egotist general manager told us at deadline that he "liked" his roster (and began to make public his feud with the three time cup-winning coach). This was the beginning of a turning over of the roster. Most of the moves since then, other than the seriously misguided and panicked decision to acquire Seth Jones, have been about looking towards the future. I understand people like to see the Davidson era as a do-over. But in truth we are really well into an eight year rebuild now (and let's not forget, Davidson was a central figure of the Bowman management team). There were many quality future pieces in place when the "new" regime took over. The fact that the Davidson team made some huge miscalculations has slow things down. I disagree with that assessment--if that was the case then in my opinion the previous build didn't start in 2006; it started earlier; some might say when we lost the core guys from the 1992 roster, other more cynical types when we lost the core guys from the 1961 roster, and every move since was a move to "rebuild"--without acknowledging floundering in between due to incompetent management. Between losing Hjammer and Hossa? The team floundered and wallowed due to incompetent management that did not acquire the proper personnel for a build or a rebuild. That in my opinion is not a build--especially since most of the acquisitions, while intended to make the team better, didn't in actuality. In the same vein, I do realize that if KD fails at this, then his would not be a build, it would be a floundering as well. To my mind, Bowman was rebuilding as early as 2017. He was actively attempting to transform the roster around young players acquired both in the draft and through trades. Almost every trade from that point forward - with few notable exceptions - made the team younger. The problem was that Bowman's young players did not turn out or were not given enough time to gel with the inexperienced coaching staff. Like Davidson is doing now, Bowman actively attempted to surround his young players with veterans. Instead of Mrazek, Bowman added MA Fleury on the cheap. Bowman held on to Kane and Toews and added Sharp and Tyler Johnson. Davidson brought in Hall, Foligno, Perry, Donato and AA (among others). If anything, the roster now is older than it ever has been during the past two decades. Stan made two dreadful trades in the post cup years that did not make much sense for a team building to the future. The big one was the Seth Jones trade. We all understand why Bowman made this move. He had lost his entire defence in a short timeframe. He could not stomach the idea of trying to build a team without any competent defenders. The Andrew Shaw trade for picks never made much sense either, but it did provide a temporary boost among the sentimental fan base. Did Bowman actively tank the roster similar to Davidson? No he did not. But he really had no option. The two star players who carried the team both had no-movement clauses with their long term contracts. The truth is that Bowman like Davidson also had been "rebuilding" with youth. These players included Hagel, Kubalik, Debrincat, Strome, Lankinen, Dach etc. Davidson did not like the look of Bowman's rebuild and traded or gave away all these young players in short order. We will see if the picks Davidson acquired improves on what he moved out. |
|
|
|
Post by BigT on Apr 10, 2024 12:55:55 GMT -6
I feel for a lot of the reasons all of you have stated, I believe the Hawks will battle for a playoff spot next year. I don’t believe they get in. I think they’ll end up somewhere a little better than the coyotes!!!
|
|
|
|
Post by mvr on Apr 10, 2024 13:02:06 GMT -6
Why do I keep bringing up the Bowman rebuild?
The answer is that youth movements do not always follow compound interest growth patterns. Often times, they stagnate. Just because a roster is filled with young prospects and high draft picks does not mean it will work out.
Without the right coaching and the correct mix of veteran leaders, a youth movement can degenerate into something approaching the abyss. There have been countless youth movements in this sport. Some have worked out. Others have not.
|
|
|
|
Post by mvr on Apr 10, 2024 13:56:06 GMT -6
Alex Regula is +36 this year for the Providence Bruins. Ian Mitchell has bounced between the Bruins and their AHL team but has produced 21 points in 37 games in the minors this year.
Will either be a star? Not likely. But we do know that defencemen take a long time to develop. Regula is only 23. Gus Forsling was 25 before he figured out what he needed to do to play in the NHL, after bouncing around the minors in the Hawks system and being waived by the Hurricanes.
My point here is that not long ago, the Hawks future on the blueline included Regula, Mitchell, Beaudin, Stillman, Galvas, and Kalynuk. Most of us were excited about these players. Mitchell had been a star on a gold-medal winning junior roster. He was the reason Bowman traded away his other two right-shot defenders, Boqvist and Jokiharju. Bowman's "rebuild" of the defence looked very promising.
At least until it didn't.
|
|
|
|
Post by hsbob on Apr 10, 2024 18:38:06 GMT -6
I feel for a lot of the reasons all of you have stated, I believe the Hawks will battle for a playoff spot next year. I don’t believe they get in. I think they’ll end up somewhere a little better than the coyotes!!! The team's currently 41 points behind LV for the last spot in the west,do you really see a 15-20 win improvement without a major acquisition or two. I know there were injuries but Foligno had a much better than anticipated season(his best since '16'),Mrazek had a resurgence @32,Kurashev had a good year,Vlasic broke through and Dickinson more than doubled his previous goal total. Some of these things might very well not happen again next year. Looking at Hall's last few seasons doesn't give a guy much confidence and that was before the serious knee injury and AA's pretty much just fast. Don't get me wrong,Bedard will continue to improve,as will the young D-men but enough to win how many more games? |
|
|
|
Post by BigT on Apr 10, 2024 19:07:34 GMT -6
I feel for a lot of the reasons all of you have stated, I believe the Hawks will battle for a playoff spot next year. I don’t believe they get in. I think they’ll end up somewhere a little better than the coyotes!!! The team's currently 41 points behind LV for the last spot in the west,do you really see a 15-20 win improvement without a major acquisition or two. I know there were injuries but Foligno had a much better than anticipated season(his best since '16'),Mrazek had a resurgence @32,Kurashev had a good year,Vlasic broke through and Dickinson more than doubled his previous goal total. Some of these things might very well not happen again next year. Looking at Hall's last few seasons doesn't give a guy much confidence and that was before the serious knee injury and AA's pretty much just fast. Don't get me wrong,Bedard will continue to improve,as will the young D-men but enough to win how many more games? I respect where you’re coming from, and don’t blame you or anyone for questioning such a bold statement. So here’s what I think. Mrazek played above himself. But I don’t think he’ll have to be as good, for all the reasons below. Backup goalie will be better. Soder was awful on his best game. He won’t be back. I feel the Hawks will shore up that position for the next couple years. They’ll sign Jake Allen or someone like that. Missing AA the whole year hurt, missing Hall hurt. Seth, Murphy, Bedard, and the litany of players who missed ample time. I think a couple more kids will be on the Hawks. I feel if they can stay 50% healthier than this year, they’ll get a groove going. I also feel the Hawks will get a couple more vets for a couple years. Which will shore up the roster from full on tanking. I honestly feel that Bedard and Kurashev will get to another level. They’ve looked real good. I think they’ll have a solid season. If Bedard gets 90 points and Kurashev 70. The team is automatically that much better. AA will get 50 points, Hall will get 40. Maybe Dicky 40, Foligno 30, possibly someone like Dach makes the team and gets on Bedards line due to his size. He looked good in pre season with Bedard. I honestly feel the team will come out flying, have a good first half and start to tail off. Kinda like the Yotes this year. So you can definitely hold me to the flames for this. It’s bold, but we’ll see!!! |
|
|
|
Post by ebonyraptor on Apr 10, 2024 21:04:33 GMT -6
I feel for a lot of the reasons all of you have stated, I believe the Hawks will battle for a playoff spot next year. I don’t believe they get in. I think they’ll end up somewhere a little better than the coyotes!!! The team's currently 41 points behind LV for the last spot in the west,do you really see a 15-20 win improvement without a major acquisition or two. I know there were injuries but Foligno had a much better than anticipated season(his best since '16'),Mrazek had a resurgence @32,Kurashev had a good year,Vlasic broke through and Dickinson more than doubled his previous goal total. Some of these things might very well not happen again next year. Looking at Hall's last few seasons doesn't give a guy much confidence and that was before the serious knee injury and AA's pretty much just fast. Don't get me wrong,Bedard will continue to improve,as will the young D-men but enough to win how many more games? Yeah, there could and probably will be some regression with the players you mention who played better than expected this season - AND - there probably could and should be some developmental improvement in the young players - so maybe those two things kind of wash out and next season's results won't be appreciably different than this season. That's the reason I'm not as optimistic about next season as BigT is and is the reason for bringing this discussion into this forum. If I understood KD correctly AND he "stays the course" - I don't expect him to go big game hunting in the free agent market until the team is close enough to where a big time free agent (or two) woud be the final piece(s) to elevate the rebuilt team into legitimate Cup contending. It's more than evident the team is not close to where a final piece or two elevates them to Cup contending so I don't expect KD to bring in any big time long term free agents for the 2024/25 season. However, what is also evident is the Hawks have one top-6 forward - Bedard - and his development is on a lower grade than it could be because he doesn't have two linemates that are true top-6, let alone top-line. Kurashev has played very well and hopefully he continues to play that well moving forward but he is a "best we have" to play with Bedard rather than a "best we should get" to play with Bedard. If the question is asked whether or not everything that could have been done to provide the most important player in the rebuild (Bedard) with the best developmental circumstances was actually done - the answer would be "NO". The follow up question is why not? I think KD's strategy of holding off on acquiring big time long term Cap commitment players until it's just the right time is the best strategy because Cap management must take the long view in order to have any sustained success if and when we get to a Cup window - but - there is also reason to do more than dumpster dive with old and middle of the road players at the cost of stagnating Bedard's growth. I'm of the mind now that we're at least one year, if not two years, farther away from where i thought we would be heading into the 2024/25 season. My hope is KD acquires a guy like Skinner (as BigT suggested) who is a legit goal scoring top-6 winger who has a high AAV ($9M) but for only 3 more seasons - perfect. |
|
|
|
Post by bigbarn27 on Apr 10, 2024 23:45:56 GMT -6
A legit top 6 winger and a first round pick for a second round pick. Did the Sabers sign Stan as GM can we please get back to reality. Skinner also has a NMC sorry but KD has to start playing at the big boy table if you want a top 6 winger you are gonna have to pay for it.
|
|
|
|
Post by ebonyraptor on Apr 11, 2024 1:36:15 GMT -6
A legit top 6 winger and a first round pick for a second round pick. Did the Sabers sign Stan as GM can we please get back to reality. Skinner also has a NMC sorry but KD has to start playing at the big boy table if you want a top 6 winger you are gonna have to pay for it. Yeah, when I said that I assumed Buffalo would want to get out from under a $9M cap hit but after consulting CapFriendly they don't have a tight cap situation so maybe paying a price to take Skinner off their cap isn't something they want to do. I haven't checked the UFA market for this summer so I don't know if there a solution there. However it needs to happen I hope KD can acquire a legit top-6 winger that won't also fudge up the long term Cap plan. Good luck KD. |
|
|
|
Post by LordKOTL on Apr 11, 2024 8:38:54 GMT -6
I disagree with that assessment--if that was the case then in my opinion the previous build didn't start in 2006; it started earlier; some might say when we lost the core guys from the 1992 roster, other more cynical types when we lost the core guys from the 1961 roster, and every move since was a move to "rebuild"--without acknowledging floundering in between due to incompetent management. Between losing Hjammer and Hossa? The team floundered and wallowed due to incompetent management that did not acquire the proper personnel for a build or a rebuild. That in my opinion is not a build--especially since most of the acquisitions, while intended to make the team better, didn't in actuality. In the same vein, I do realize that if KD fails at this, then his would not be a build, it would be a floundering as well. To my mind, Bowman was rebuilding as early as 2017. He was actively attempting to transform the roster around young players acquired both in the draft and through trades. Almost every trade from that point forward - with few notable exceptions - made the team younger. The problem was that Bowman's young players did not turn out or were not given enough time to gel with the inexperienced coaching staff. Like Davidson is doing now, Bowman actively attempted to surround his young players with veterans. Instead of Mrazek, Bowman added MA Fleury on the cheap. Bowman held on to Kane and Toews and added Sharp and Tyler Johnson. Davidson brought in Hall, Foligno, Perry, Donato and AA (among others). If anything, the roster now is older than it ever has been during the past two decades. Stan made two dreadful trades in the post cup years that did not make much sense for a team building to the future. The big one was the Seth Jones trade. We all understand why Bowman made this move. He had lost his entire defence in a short timeframe. He could not stomach the idea of trying to build a team without any competent defenders. The Andrew Shaw trade for picks never made much sense either, but it did provide a temporary boost among the sentimental fan base. Did Bowman actively tank the roster similar to Davidson? No he did not. But he really had no option. The two star players who carried the team both had no-movement clauses with their long term contracts. The truth is that Bowman like Davidson also had been "rebuilding" with youth. These players included Hagel, Kubalik, Debrincat, Strome, Lankinen, Dach etc. Davidson did not like the look of Bowman's rebuild and traded or gave away all these young players in short order. We will see if the picks Davidson acquired improves on what he moved out. We'll probably have to agree to disagree on this, but I view a distinction between Bowman's rebuild and KD's rebuild. I see the philosophies of KD and Bowman as different and thus I don't consider them the same. Even if some of Bowman's players will be used in KD's build, it doesn't make it the same contiguous rebuild in my mind. Bowman went after certain types of players and tried to build the team one way, KD is doing it different. KD jettisoned players which didn't fit with his idea of how the team should be rebuilt--at least the ones he could. Others he jettisoned because the return would help his vision of how the team should be built. Like you said, KD did not like the look of Bowman's rebuild and changed things up. Ergo, in my mind the rebuild has to considered as non-continuous. 2017 (technically July 2009) through October 2021 in my mind is a separate entity than October 2021-present. |
|
|
|
Post by LordKOTL on Apr 11, 2024 8:45:47 GMT -6
Taking off of my previous answer to hawkfaninpdx , I also think had the injury bug/Perry's issues had not hit the team so bloody hard this season, we probably would have gained a position in the standings over last season. I think that the team this year is in vs last year has to take that into consideration. I don't think this year's team is better than last years had the injury bug not hit. Comparing the team last season with this season, even though the win/loss records are essentially the same, is more or less meaningless because the teams and circumstances were so different. The 2022/23 team had some of their best players leave at the TDL meaning those players didn't play the last 20-25 games of the season - Kane, Domi, Toews, Lafferty and McCabe. This season players were missing due to injuries. Also - last season really didn't promote prospects into significant roles for any meaningful number of games - that is quite different this season with a number of prominent prospects getting a lot of games and experience - Bedard, Vlassic and Korchinski. So - not much difference in win/loss but first wave of future core now has their first year of full time NHL experience under their belt - which is progress from last season. That's exactly what my point was. Last season the circumstances were different. The youth movement wasn't happening. The team was set up to insulate the youth from losing that bad. This year it was different--at least at the beginning. We brought in players not to help the tank, but to help guide the youth and the standings result would be whatever it would be. The only problem was they all got injured. |
|
|
|
Post by hsbob on Apr 11, 2024 11:07:36 GMT -6
The team's currently 41 points behind LV for the last spot in the west,do you really see a 15-20 win improvement without a major acquisition or two. I know there were injuries but Foligno had a much better than anticipated season(his best since '16'),Mrazek had a resurgence @32,Kurashev had a good year,Vlasic broke through and Dickinson more than doubled his previous goal total. Some of these things might very well not happen again next year. Looking at Hall's last few seasons doesn't give a guy much confidence and that was before the serious knee injury and AA's pretty much just fast. Don't get me wrong,Bedard will continue to improve,as will the young D-men but enough to win how many more games? I respect where you’re coming from, and don’t blame you or anyone for questioning such a bold statement. So here’s what I think. Mrazek played above himself. But I don’t think he’ll have to be as good, for all the reasons below. Backup goalie will be better. Soder was awful on his best game. He won’t be back. I feel the Hawks will shore up that position for the next couple years. They’ll sign Jake Allen or someone like that. Missing AA the whole year hurt, missing Hall hurt. Seth, Murphy, Bedard, and the litany of players who missed ample time. I think a couple more kids will be on the Hawks. I feel if they can stay 50% healthier than this year, they’ll get a groove going. I also feel the Hawks will get a couple more vets for a couple years. Which will shore up the roster from full on tanking. I honestly feel that Bedard and Kurashev will get to another level. They’ve looked real good. I think they’ll have a solid season. If Bedard gets 90 points and Kurashev 70. The team is automatically that much better. AA will get 50 points, Hall will get 40. Maybe Dicky 40, Foligno 30, possibly someone like Dach makes the team and gets on Bedards line due to his size. He looked good in pre season with Bedard. I honestly feel the team will come out flying, have a good first half and start to tail off. Kinda like the Yotes this year. So you can definitely hold me to the flames for this. It’s bold, but we’ll see!!! My point was the guys who filled-in for the injured players did a very admirable job,possibly better than the injured players would have. I guess I'm confused between the opinions of most that we're still 2-4 years away and yours' that the team arrives next year. If you're right and it's next year,fine.........I'M READY TO HOLD THE FO's FEET TO THE FIRE ASAP. Isn't THAT a novel idea! Hold YOU to the flames if they miss? Nah.......Murph'll get hurt again like every year and that'll be your 'out'. |
|
|
|
Post by hsbob on Apr 11, 2024 11:21:35 GMT -6
The team's currently 41 points behind LV for the last spot in the west,do you really see a 15-20 win improvement without a major acquisition or two. I know there were injuries but Foligno had a much better than anticipated season(his best since '16'),Mrazek had a resurgence @32,Kurashev had a good year,Vlasic broke through and Dickinson more than doubled his previous goal total. Some of these things might very well not happen again next year. Looking at Hall's last few seasons doesn't give a guy much confidence and that was before the serious knee injury and AA's pretty much just fast. Don't get me wrong,Bedard will continue to improve,as will the young D-men but enough to win how many more games? Yeah, there could and probably will be some regression with the players you mention who played better than expected this season - AND - there probably could and should be some developmental improvement in the young players - so maybe those two things kind of wash out and next season's results won't be appreciably different than this season. That's the reason I'm not as optimistic about next season as BigT is and is the reason for bringing this discussion into this forum. If I understood KD correctly AND he "stays the course" - I don't expect him to go big game hunting in the free agent market until the team is close enough to where a big time free agent (or two) woud be the final piece(s) to elevate the rebuilt team into legitimate Cup contending. It's more than evident the team is not close to where a final piece or two elevates them to Cup contending so I don't expect KD to bring in any big time long term free agents for the 2024/25 season. However, what is also evident is the Hawks have one top-6 forward - Bedard - and his development is on a lower grade than it could be because he doesn't have two linemates that are true top-6, let alone top-line. Kurashev has played very well and hopefully he continues to play that well moving forward but he is a "best we have" to play with Bedard rather than a "best we should get" to play with Bedard. If the question is asked whether or not everything that could have been done to provide the most important player in the rebuild (Bedard) with the best developmental circumstances was actually done - the answer would be "NO". The follow up question is why not? I think KD's strategy of holding off on acquiring big time long term Cap commitment players until it's just the right time is the best strategy because Cap management must take the long view in order to have any sustained success if and when we get to a Cup window - but - there is also reason to do more than dumpster dive with old and middle of the road players at the cost of stagnating Bedard's growth. I'm of the mind now that we're at least one year, if not two years, farther away from where i thought we would be heading into the 2024/25 season. My hope is KD acquires a guy like Skinner (as BigT suggested) who is a legit goal scoring top-6 winger who has a high AAV ($9M) but for only 3 more seasons - perfect. The point made in your 3rd paragraph could be a lot more of an issue than most realize,the kid could get real frustrated in a few years w/o proper support. No major additions until the time is right? When is that? Skinner's production has fallen off a cliff and he's been a healthy scratch a number of times this year.......he turns 32 in 5 days. Nine million? What does it matter when it's just 'play' money? |
|
|
|
Post by ebonyraptor on Apr 11, 2024 11:56:59 GMT -6
Yeah, there could and probably will be some regression with the players you mention who played better than expected this season - AND - there probably could and should be some developmental improvement in the young players - so maybe those two things kind of wash out and next season's results won't be appreciably different than this season. That's the reason I'm not as optimistic about next season as BigT is and is the reason for bringing this discussion into this forum. If I understood KD correctly AND he "stays the course" - I don't expect him to go big game hunting in the free agent market until the team is close enough to where a big time free agent (or two) woud be the final piece(s) to elevate the rebuilt team into legitimate Cup contending. It's more than evident the team is not close to where a final piece or two elevates them to Cup contending so I don't expect KD to bring in any big time long term free agents for the 2024/25 season. However, what is also evident is the Hawks have one top-6 forward - Bedard - and his development is on a lower grade than it could be because he doesn't have two linemates that are true top-6, let alone top-line. Kurashev has played very well and hopefully he continues to play that well moving forward but he is a "best we have" to play with Bedard rather than a "best we should get" to play with Bedard. If the question is asked whether or not everything that could have been done to provide the most important player in the rebuild (Bedard) with the best developmental circumstances was actually done - the answer would be "NO". The follow up question is why not? I think KD's strategy of holding off on acquiring big time long term Cap commitment players until it's just the right time is the best strategy because Cap management must take the long view in order to have any sustained success if and when we get to a Cup window - but - there is also reason to do more than dumpster dive with old and middle of the road players at the cost of stagnating Bedard's growth. I'm of the mind now that we're at least one year, if not two years, farther away from where i thought we would be heading into the 2024/25 season. My hope is KD acquires a guy like Skinner (as BigT suggested) who is a legit goal scoring top-6 winger who has a high AAV ($9M) but for only 3 more seasons - perfect. The point made in your 3rd paragraph could be a lot more of an issue than most realize,the kid could get real frustrated in a few years w/o proper support. No major additions until the time is right? When is that? Skinner's production has fallen off a cliff and he's been a healthy scratch a number of times this year.......he turns 32 in 5 days. Nine million? What does it matter when it's just 'play' money? Skinner has had a career of season-to-season inconsistency, to be sure, but he's still a great skater and still scores goals. He's having a "down" season but he still has 45 points and 24 goals. He would be at worst the 2nd best goal scorer on the Hawks next season. As for the AAV and term - you're right to call it "play" money or it could be called "insurance" money to insure Bedard isn't forced to play his sophomore season with a band of misfits. Relying on Hall coming back and playing the entire season well enough to make a difference is not a good bet and hopefully not one KD will take. |
|
|
|
Post by BigT on Apr 12, 2024 0:21:40 GMT -6
I respect where you’re coming from, and don’t blame you or anyone for questioning such a bold statement. So here’s what I think. Mrazek played above himself. But I don’t think he’ll have to be as good, for all the reasons below. Backup goalie will be better. Soder was awful on his best game. He won’t be back. I feel the Hawks will shore up that position for the next couple years. They’ll sign Jake Allen or someone like that. Missing AA the whole year hurt, missing Hall hurt. Seth, Murphy, Bedard, and the litany of players who missed ample time. I think a couple more kids will be on the Hawks. I feel if they can stay 50% healthier than this year, they’ll get a groove going. I also feel the Hawks will get a couple more vets for a couple years. Which will shore up the roster from full on tanking. I honestly feel that Bedard and Kurashev will get to another level. They’ve looked real good. I think they’ll have a solid season. If Bedard gets 90 points and Kurashev 70. The team is automatically that much better. AA will get 50 points, Hall will get 40. Maybe Dicky 40, Foligno 30, possibly someone like Dach makes the team and gets on Bedards line due to his size. He looked good in pre season with Bedard. I honestly feel the team will come out flying, have a good first half and start to tail off. Kinda like the Yotes this year. So you can definitely hold me to the flames for this. It’s bold, but we’ll see!!! My point was the guys who filled-in for the injured players did a very admirable job,possibly better than the injured players would have. I guess I'm confused between the opinions of most that we're still 2-4 years away and yours' that the team arrives next year. If you're right and it's next year,fine.........I'M READY TO HOLD THE FO's FEET TO THE FIRE ASAP. Isn't THAT a novel idea! Hold YOU to the flames if they miss? Nah.......Murph'll get hurt again like every year and that'll be your 'out'. I do not believe the rebuild is complete until you are consistently in the playoffs. At least for 2 straight years. I feel the Hawks are about 4 years away from that. I feel the Hawks will challenge for a playoff spot next year but fall short. Kinda like Arizona/Salt Lake. But the Hawks will do good. Unfortunately they will falter with the total youth movement. Just like Arizona etc. The hawks will move forward, only to fall back. Just watch. Our Hawks will do good until they have to pay for it!! |
|
|
|
Post by hsbob on Apr 12, 2024 8:56:09 GMT -6
The point made in your 3rd paragraph could be a lot more of an issue than most realize,the kid could get real frustrated in a few years w/o proper support. No major additions until the time is right? When is that? Skinner's production has fallen off a cliff and he's been a healthy scratch a number of times this year.......he turns 32 in 5 days. Nine million? What does it matter when it's just 'play' money? Skinner has had a career of season-to-season inconsistency, to be sure, but he's still a great skater and still scores goals. He's having a "down" season but he still has 45 points and 24 goals. He would be at worst the 2nd best goal scorer on the Hawks next season. As for the AAV and term - you're right to call it "play" money or it could be called "insurance" money to insure Bedard isn't forced to play his sophomore season with a band of misfits. Relying on Hall coming back and playing the entire season well enough to make a difference is not a good bet and hopefully not one KD will take. I know they have to reach the floor somehow and I realize the three year term doesn't interfere with signing players who'll need to be signed or RE-signed in a few years,but let me ask this. Shouldn't nine million bucks fetch a better linemate for Bedard than Skinner? Wouldn't this move really be made to add even more high picks to the already massive pile? I know there's strength in numbers when it comes to quality prospects but the numbers the team's collected from not just only the last two drafts,which equate to five drafts(five 1st's five 2nd's five 3rd's),but there's already surpluses in the next three.......big time surpluses! We can say what we want about the last GM(and I do),but the truth is,Kirby Dach is the only high pick from his last three drafts who's no longer in the system and even he brough a 1st back in return. Even these so called 'empty cupboards' still include Allen,Dach,Harding,Del Mastro,Commesso,and Teply,to go along with some who've already seen NHL action and have progressed to varying degrees like,Vlasic,Kaiser,Reichel,Crevier and Slaggert. Kurashev came from the '18' draft. If all of this summer's haul is retained,that'll be seven 1st's,eight 2nd's and seven 3rd's in three consecutive drafts and later-round picks can hit also,to go along with those left-overs. That'll be THIRTY 1st-3rd round prospects in the system not counting Vlasic,Reichel,Kaiser and Slaggert(who should all make the big club)or later round picks.....or Crevier who also has a chance. If there's not already enough strength in those unprecedented numbers,there'll never be! All of that being said,I still don't see why some of the draft surplus that'll still be held the following two drafts can't be used to acquire an AGE APPROPRIATE,quality forward or two instead of more aged,declining players. |
|
|
|
Post by mvr on Apr 12, 2024 10:07:17 GMT -6
I think the team has more than enough cap space to do both (ie add cap dumps and young players from other cash-strapped teams).
The real issue is whether or not the owner is willing to spend the money.
For several years now, the Wirtz family (fronted by the young general manager) has been hiding behind this idea that they need to "preserve" cap space for future years. Of course, the system does not work that way. Money saved for this year is not added to subsequent years. There is no reason not to spend to the cap every year.
We all understand that management must avoid taking on long term contracts to preserve future cap space for the kids. But the cap is not going to be an issue for some time. The cap is likely to be going up fairly dramatically over the next few years.
Given fan excitement over Berard, my guess is that the team has never sold more jerseys than it has this year. Ticket sales remain strong. Money is being made - perhaps more now than even during the cup years.
Yet the team is not spending... and some seriously suggest the general manager is not deliberately tanking.
|
|
|
|
Post by mvr on Apr 12, 2024 10:11:49 GMT -6
Bill Wirtz was always upfront and honest about what he was doing. We all despised him for it.
His grandson is doing the same thing, and yet he gets a free pass. I don't get it.
|
|
|
|
Post by T-man2010 on Apr 12, 2024 11:21:13 GMT -6
Bill Wirtz was always upfront and honest about what he was doing. We all despised him for it. His grandson is doing the same thing, and yet he gets a free pass. I don't get it. Because danny hasn't done anything yet one way or another. He's letting KD and his assistants do all the work. This is the problem when you don't hire a president of Hockey OPS. Say like Eddie would have been a good choice. |
|
