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Post by ebonyraptor on May 7, 2024 11:12:06 GMT -6
Well, today's the big day - may the lotto balls pop up correctly for the Hawks.
So that means today may be the last day we can dream visions of a Bedard-Celebrini lineup for by end of day today it will either be fact or forget about it.
So with happy dreams dancing in my head, and in keeping with the topic of this thread - I was thinking (a collective "oh no" can be heard across the fruited plain). Would the "plan" change much or at all if the Hawks win the lottery and draft Celebrini? I mean specifically - will it change the timeline or maybe "only" the moves KD makes this off season?
I think the odds are very good that whichever team gets Celebrini - he will start in the NHL next season. So does that mean KD doesn't have to acquire a top-6 player as part of the plan to take "the next step"? It wouldn't eliminate the requirement for a solid d-man to upgrade the backend - but could Celebrini be the top-6 requirement?
If the plan is to keep Bedard at center, and I hope it is, then Celebrini can play 2C and Nazar can slot into a wing position. Hall, Kurashev and Reichel would be the other top-6 wingers.
It seems when KD announced it was time to take the next step - there would need to be an upgrade at forward, specifically top-6 for more scoring. Wouldn't Celebrini meet that need?
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Post by Granada on May 7, 2024 11:17:39 GMT -6
Marner for seth gonna happen  |
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Post by hawkfaninpdx on May 7, 2024 11:41:44 GMT -6
Of course that is an option, but my question was really meant to get an answer that tells me why this guy should be given another chance when he has failed to show much production so far in his career. Because he's shown flashes and he's only 21 - in my opinion far too early to give up on him. And, most likely it won't take a large financial commitment to sign him for 1 or 2 years. In a way it's similar to Kurashev a year ago - who was older and not a 1st round draft pick investment - but had shown flashes. Fortunately they didn't give up on him and it ended up a good thing for the Hawks. Reichel should definitely be given another year or two. Minnesota's Joel Erickson Ek took five years to develop, also a first rounder. A more vexing question is whether to cut Raddysh loose. |
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Post by ebonyraptor on May 7, 2024 11:45:01 GMT -6
Because he's shown flashes and he's only 21 - in my opinion far too early to give up on him. And, most likely it won't take a large financial commitment to sign him for 1 or 2 years. In a way it's similar to Kurashev a year ago - who was older and not a 1st round draft pick investment - but had shown flashes. Fortunately they didn't give up on him and it ended up a good thing for the Hawks. Reichel should definitely be given another year or two. Minnesota's Joel Erickson Ek took five years to develop, also a first rounder. A more vexing question is whether to cut Raddysh loose. I don't think its a question at all - cut him loose. The difference between Reichel and Raddysh is significant. Reichel can skate and has good vision - Raddysh has neither. |
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Post by jacksalmon on May 11, 2024 22:21:20 GMT -6
Of course that is an option, but my question was really meant to get an answer that tells me why this guy should be given another chance when he has failed to show much production so far in his career. T-man already mentioned his age but his RFA status and his weak offensive numbers so far will mean a reasonable contract and the team has the luxury of assessing the young player for another year or two w/o much pressure to win games over that span before they have to make a major decision on him. Both you and T-man have come up with good reasons to resign him, if they can get him to sign the deal the teams wants. I guess there isn't much to lose to spending some money on him for more examination time. |
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Post by ebonyraptor on May 25, 2024 16:05:12 GMT -6
Thinking of expectations - specifically expectations for when the prospects will get to be regular NHL'ers and expectations for the role they would be likely to play. Defining "prospects" as everyone who has not secured a roster spot already - in other words - everyone except Bedard, Vlassic, Korchinski and I'll include Reichel in this list although his NHL security is a little tenuous.
I expect Nazar to earn a permanent roster spot in 2024/25 - but I have doubts about any of the other prospects. Maybe Kaiser, EDM, Slaggert - I expect they all get some games but unless Kaiser and EDM clearly establish they're the best guy to be the 3rd LD behind Vlassic and KK - it may end up being neither of them are the clear cut winner in that competition although I have the feeling they would like to see EDM emerge as the guy with his size advantage.
Anyone drafted this year is at least a year away - even if it's Demidov who has another year in Russia. Speaking of Russia - Kantserov has 2 years left on his KHL contract so the earliest he could join the Hawks in 2026/27. Moore and Rinzel are possibilities for 2025/26 but more than likely it will be another 2 seasons before we see them on the Hawks. The guys drafted in 2022 - Hayes, Ludwinski, Greene, Savoie and Thompson are all, I expect, atleast 1 year away. Misiak and Lardis probably 2 years away.
So my expectations are pretty low in terms of the Hawks graduating many prospects to the NHL in 2024/25. Hopefully Nazar does well, Reichel figures it out, and one of Kaiser and EDM emerges as a full time NHL D-man.
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Post by ebonyraptor on Jul 3, 2024 0:32:40 GMT -6
Now that the draft and free agency is behind us - have my expectations changed? In a word - yes. To be more specific - my timeline expectations have changed by at least 1 year if not 2 or 3 years. I was optimistic the prospects would be filtered in over the next 2-3 years but it now seems more realistic that those prospects will spend 1 or 2 years in Rockford pushing the prospect integration into the NHL back by 1 or 2 years. At this point it's more probable than not that no forward prospects play regularly in the NHL in 2024/25 and maybe only 1 d-man prospect gets a regular shift, maybe 2 if they need an injury call up.
I don't know if adding the veteran free agents for the purpose of winning more games in 2024/25 is worth it if it pushes back the rebuild timeline. There still could be more changes to the lineup before the 2024/25 season starts - so we'll see, but as it stands right now my guess is the rebuild will continue for at least another 4 or 5 years before the Hawks will be a competitive playoff team.
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Post by mvr on Jul 3, 2024 5:47:00 GMT -6
What happened on July 1st was a full recognition that the scorched-earth rebuild approach was a terrible idea.
Did the general manager and owner panic? Perhaps. More likely, they came to the conclusion that a team cannot rebuild without a solid veteran base. Clearly, several of the high-end prospects (Reichel, Korchinski, Soderblum in particular) regressed. Confidences have been shattered.
NHL hockey is a tough game. I'm more than relieved to see the team reverse itself by spending to the cap and adding some legit talent. Perhaps the coaching staff can salvage the situation.
Step one is to incorporate and develop the kids appropriately with realistic timelines.
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Post by mvr on Jul 3, 2024 5:58:13 GMT -6
In Davidson's defence, perhaps he always knew the team could not build a roster around youth.
The intention instead was single-mindedly to tank and accumulate high picks for a couple of years. Wasting existing talent was a casualty of the cynical con job.
This was always my belief. At least now it is over.
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Post by hawkfaninpdx on Jul 3, 2024 12:03:22 GMT -6
There's a wide range of possibilities how this season may turn out. From the points perspective, the Hawks can fall anywhere between low 70's and high 80's. There's even an outside chance that they make playoffs. That's not as important as readjusting the expectations: it's about being competitive now. There's a skeleton in place, onto which prospects can be grafted.
With the longer contracts in place the Hawks are becoming more of a destination team, as opposed a waypoint on a journey elsewhere. Even more importantly, as mvr is pointing out above, the era of cynical tanking is behind us -- and it's a good thing.
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Post by nighbor on Jul 3, 2024 12:17:28 GMT -6
In Davidson's defence, perhaps he always knew the team could not build a roster around youth. The intention instead was single-mindedly to tank and accumulate high picks for a couple of years. Wasting existing talent was a casualty of the cynical con job. This was always my belief. At least now it is over. KD started adding players last season but the injury bug hit plus the underperformance of Reichel and Raddysh added to a disappointing season. Reichel finished the season with some flashes of talent. I am hopeful that his performance at the worlds (7pts in 5games) for Germany will unlock his potential and give him the needed confidence to be one of our leaders. |
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Post by mvr on Jul 3, 2024 13:15:53 GMT -6
In Davidson's defence, perhaps he always knew the team could not build a roster around youth. The intention instead was single-mindedly to tank and accumulate high picks for a couple of years. Wasting existing talent was a casualty of the cynical con job. This was always my belief. At least now it is over. KD started adding players last season but the injury bug hit plus the underperformance of Reichel and Raddysh added to a disappointing season. Reichel finished the season with some flashes of talent. I am hopeful that his performance at the worlds (7pts in 5games) for Germany will unlock his potential and give him the needed confidence to be one of our leaders. The truth is that he actually subtracted far more than he added if you include the previous trade deadline dumps (Hall of Famer Patrick Kane, McCabe, Domi, Lafferty etc) and the summer's UFAs (including Hall of Famer Jonathan Toews). The few additions he did make last summer (cap dumps and overpaid veteran fourth liners) certainly did not replace what he subtracted. The injuries did not help but this team was not built to compete last year. Davidson was deliberately tanking. |
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Post by mvr on Jul 3, 2024 13:26:08 GMT -6
There's a wide range of possibilities how this season may turn out. From the points perspective, the Hawks can fall anywhere between low 70's and high 80's. There's even an outside chance that they make playoffs. That's not as important as readjusting the expectations: it's about being competitive now. There's a skeleton in place, onto which prospects can be grafted. With the longer contracts in place the Hawks are becoming more of a destination team, as opposed a waypoint on a journey elsewhere. Even more importantly, as mvr is pointing out above, the era of cynical tanking is behind us -- and it's a good thing. A team does not have to spend huge money on star players to upgrade a roster dramatically. I have liked every single move made this off-season including the trade with Vancouver and Davidson's approach at the entry draft. The two additions on defence and the upgrade in net should make an enormous difference. It now will be up to the coaching staff to get these players to gel into some kind of coherent machine. There has been a lot of turnover, however, which will make it challenging. With any luck, this team should be at least competitive most nights which is how it should be. |
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Post by nighbor on Jul 4, 2024 8:56:50 GMT -6
KD started adding players last season but the injury bug hit plus the underperformance of Reichel and Raddysh added to a disappointing season. Reichel finished the season with some flashes of talent. I am hopeful that his performance at the worlds (7pts in 5games) for Germany will unlock his potential and give him the needed confidence to be one of our leaders. The truth is that he actually subtracted far more than he added if you include the previous trade deadline dumps (Hall of Famer Patrick Kane, McCabe, Domi, Lafferty etc) and the summer's UFAs (including Hall of Famer Jonathan Toews). The few additions he did make last summer (cap dumps and overpaid veteran fourth liners) certainly did not replace what he subtracted. The injuries did not help but this team was not built to compete last year. Davidson was deliberately tanking. T&K are not immortal. Any realistic timeline would mean T&K would be in their forties when the team was ready for a serious cup run. After years of drafting middle of the pack who would be good enough to do the heavy lifting. It is more meaningful to build a winner than to buy one. To rebuild starts with tearing down the old. If things worked out we would have drafted in the 5-10 range. I would not consider that tanking. |
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